The Dish

"There is no doubt … we hope and pray every night to run against Hillary Clinton," – Ari Fleischer, on CNN last night.

I’d say it’s Huckabee’s astonishing resilience, with so few dollars and so little organization. The Bush-Rove party is a disproportionately religious organization and the pastor cannot be denied. The GOP’s natural ticket is obviously McCain-Huckabee. It makes a lot of sense for the logic of today’s religiously-based, war-motivated Republicanism. It’s also a huge reminder that the so-called leaders of the conservative movement – Limbaugh, Hewitt, Dobson, Levin, et al – are very scantily clad emperors. Their bluff has been called. And it couldn’t happen to a nicer crowd.

On the Democratic side, the bottom line is that this is now a dead heat. Given Clinton’s massive lead only a couple of weeks ago, that’s a huge Obama gain. Clinton has the edge among super-delegates (as of now). Obama has the edge in money – a real edge, and it’s building. It’s still all to play for. 

It’s a big win – rooted in seniors, those most economically distressed, Asians and Hispanics. Although his message is arguably more liberal, her base is the more traditionally Democratic. We’ll have to look at the delegate counts in the morning to see what the bottom line result is – but this was a big psychological win for her, I’d say. Still, over all, Obama may well win a majority of the states up for grabs on Super Tuesday. That counts. The delegate race will remain very tight – and 2/12 becomes a real moment. The Obama campaign must be pleased tonight, but Clinton remains the front-runner. Just.

He has simply failed to win the Christianist base. And he failed to win California and was third in Missouri, a critical bellwether. Even Hewitt seems resigned to reality:

McCain has strength across the country and a lead in delegates, but nowhere near 50% of the GOP’s votes. Huck’s strength is the south; Romney’s the mountain west plus Michigan and Massachusetts.

Rush and Dr. Dobson are aligned against the front-runner, which complicates McCain’s task enormously.  Romney and Huckabee in for the distance, and why not given the map’s much less punishing pace from here on in?

They go for Clinton by 2 to 1 in the exit polls. Will they never learn? Clinton also gets a landslide among those with no college education and a big lead among Hispanics. She really has the core Democratic base in that state. Reading these exits, it’s hard to see how Obama can win. But they’re exits – and they’ve been wrong before.

Among Obama’s states: Colorado, Idaho, Utah, Kansas, Alabama. His geographic reach is remarkable. His speech – just so glaringly, embarrassingly, surpassingly superior to his opponent’s – has a theme of national unity and an end to identity politics. He actually rebukes voting on the basis of race whereas Clinton championed her role as a woman in politics. That’s the difference. A reference to Washington’s "dramas and distractions." An invocation of the wave of mortgage foreclosures. He praises Clinton by name but then puts the boot in – on lobbyists, Iraq, Iran, torture. And he’s actually making tax hikes for the rich a positive reason to vote for him. No, Senator Clinton, he is not Ronald Reagan. And he is not George W. Bush: "We will make mistakes."

Look: he’s a liberal. I’m not. But I’m not immune to this moment in history and this candidate’s broad appeal. He appeals to the liberal in all of us. And it may be time for such a swing of the pendulum. Frankly, if that’s going to happen, I’d rather have Obama represent that shift than almost anyone else.

If he loses California, the race goes on and he may not ultimately win the nomination. But he will have won this campaign. And he will have won the argument.

It struck me as a conciliatory gesture – an attempt to mend some fences and to salute his opponents. He defends "conservative principles and philosophy." Classy. When he’s winning, he is. Now Obama is speaking …

It’s interesting, isn’t it, that both are doing particularly well in states that, in the general election, mainly go to the other party. But Obama has more traditional Democratic states as well. He has the base and he has the reach. McCain only seems to have the reach. But I’m glad that front-runners in both parties seem to be appealing across party lines. That’s a good thing. We need more of it.

His Southern streak is remarkable. And it’s only a few hundred votes in Missouri. Wow. The core of the GOP base is not prepared to give in to the front-runner, as Republicans often do, and they’re clearly not enamored of Romney. Tonight, it seems to me Huckabee is gaining considerable leverage in the party.

The state has a website with vote tallies by county.