The Dish

The exit polls show a couple of fascinating data points: Obama won 52 percent of the non-black vote under 30. Among the over-60s, he won a mere 15 percent of the non-black vote. The legacy is racism is clearly dying. Then this: Obama won every demographic among the religiously observant. And the more devout they are – judging by their church attendance – the better he did. His narrowest margins against Clinton and Edwards were among those who never attend church services.

Caroline Kennedy goes where her cousins have not:

I want a president who understands that his responsibility is to articulate a vision and encourage others to achieve it; who holds himself, and those around him, to the highest ethical standards; who appeals to the hopes of those who still believe in the American Dream, and those around the world who still believe in the American ideal; and who can lift our spirits, and make us believe again that our country needs every one of us to get involved.

I have never had a president who inspired me the way people tell me that my father inspired them. But for the first time, I believe I have found the man who could be that president — not just for me, but for a new generation of Americans.

I’ve often wondered why even I – who was three months old in a foreign country when he was assassinated – feel the power of the Kennedy charisma from the 1960s. I know the many mistakes he made and the good reasons to criticize his presidency. But the memory of him as a symbol of eternal possibility endures. It endures beyond the shores of this country. Why?

Because America still means something, and every now and again, a person captures it: the restless, liberal hope for a better future, under the sober constraints of a conservative constitution. That was Kennedy. It was also Reagan, as Bill Bennett gracefully recognized tonight. It’s real. You can feel it. And who wants to win the presidency by defeating it?

Sometimes, things come together. Watching a black man win the South Carolina primary in a landslide by transcending race: I can’t help be moved and inspired. Like so many of my generation and many, many more younger than me, Obama makes me believe in America again, after seven years of brutal, painful, searing disillusionment. I won’t let that go. Neither, I have a feeling, will the American people.

(Photo: the scene at Obama headquarters in South Carolina tonight. Win McNamee/Getty.)

That’s a staggering fact, as a reader reminds me:

In last week’s SC GOP primary, McCain and Huckabee (the top 2 finishers), got 147,283 and 132,440 votes respectively. That’s a total of 279,723. Obama just pulled down 291,000 by himself. Here’s the data.

I’d say this is the game changer. Obama can now say that he’s got the best ability to put southern states in play. Obama can attempt a true 50 state strategy. He probably would not win too many southern states, but winning a few absolutely obliterates the GOP’s chances in November.

Another interpretation:

This also shows that George W Bush is a uniter after all: People are so fucking frustrated that even rednecks are willing to give a black guy a chance.

 

I’ve now listened to and read dozens of his speeches, on television and in person and in print. Tonight was, in my judgment, the best. He was able to frame the attacks on him as a reason to vote for him. He was able to frame his foes as the status quo – beyond the Clintons or the Bushes, Democrats or Republicans. He was able to cast his candidacy as a rebuke to the Balkanization of the American public, a response to the abuse of religion for political purposes, a repudiation of the cynicism that makes all political commentary a function of horse-races and spin. It was an appeal to Democrats, Republicans and Independents to say goodbye to all that. It was a burial of Rove and Morris. And it was better than his previous speeches because he kept bringing it back to policy specifics, to the economy and healthcare and, movingly, to this misbegotten war. The diverse coalition he has assembled – including an ornery small-government conservative like me – is a reflection of the future of this country, its potential and its irreplaceable, dynamic cultural and social mix.

This is the America we all love. He is showing us how to find it again. That‘s leadership.

And, yes. We can.

Sorry, but the Clintons were just destroyed in South Carolina in an unprecedented turnout. This was a butt-kicking of massive proportions. How else do you interpret a 28 point margin? It’s staggering.

And I’m sitting here watching Bill Bennett, despite his Republican loyalties, clearly happy that we have achieved this breakthrough in civility, in transcending race, in bringing so many people back into the system. Good for Bennett to see the import of this. This is history.

In some ways, I wonder if the Clintons’ baring of the fangs hasn’t played to Obama’s advantage. He is showing he can beat some of toughest competition out there. If he wins, he will have beaten not just Hillary but Bill as well. He will have redefined the Democratic party and remade its politics. By staying civil, by focusing on the big picture, by refusing to take the low road while defending himself robustly: he won the right way. And he will win in a big way.

Yes, we can! Si, se puede!

In the war of words, both men were hurt, but a majority sided with Obama:

In the exit polls, we asked voters in this primary if the candidates were attacking each other unfairly. Fifty-six percent of those voting so far think Obama attacked Clinton unfairly, and while that is a high number, more people thought Clinton unfairly attacked Obama — 70%.

In a simple phrase: "Jesse Jackson won South Carolina twice". Listen to it yourself. I’m not making that up.

I don’t think there can be any doubt about the Clintons’ racial strategy now. The people of South Carolina just rejected that logic by voting for Obama – white and black, male and female – in a diverse coalition in the face of a deliberate attempt at racial polarization. They threw the Clintons’ logic back in their faces. Kudos to Josh for noticing this. It’s revealing, and depressing.

This looks much bigger than expected. Bill seems to have hurt Hillary’s candidacy:

Roughly 6 in 10 South Carolina Democratic primary voters said Bill Clinton’s campaigning was important in how they ultimately decided to vote, and of those voters, 48 percent went for Barack Obama while only 37 percent went for Hillary Clinton. Fourteen percent of those voters voted for John Edwards.

Meanwhile, the exit polls also indicate Obama easily beat Clinton among those voters who decided in the last three days — when news reports heavily covered the former president’s heightened criticisms of Obama. Twenty percent of South Carolina Democrats made their decision in the last three days and 51 percent of them chose Obama, while only 21 percent picked Clinton.

And Oprah came through:

Fifty-three percent of women – including 79 percent of black women – supported Obama. Clinton received the support of 30 percent of women. Obama was strongest among men, especially black men, while Edwards was strongest among white men.

Race mattered – but by no means as much as some feared, with Obama winning a quarter of the white vote, much better than the 10 percent recorded in some late polls. Is that a reverse Bradley effect? And on the question of unifying the country and defeating the Republicans, Obama scored a huge victory:

Fifty-five percent of South Carolina Democrats viewed Obama as the candidate most likely to unite the country, and 47 percent cited him as most likely to beat a Republican in November. Clinton was cited as most likely to unite the country by 26 percent of Democrats, and 36 percent said she was most likely to win.

These inferences are from the exit polls. The final result is still to come. Stay tuned.

(Photo: Brendan Smialowski/Getty.)

A big blow to Romney in Florida. With Crist, Martinez and South Carolina behind him, the momentum is with the old guy. And the shameful era of American torture may come to an end …

A reader suggests that the real import of Bill Clinton’s recent remark about how well his wife and John McCain get along is not an attempt to help Hillary. It’s an attempt to damage McCain, the Clintons’ next target, in Florida and throughout the South and West. My reader has a nice phrase to describe the power-couple’s effect on many of us:

They’re like the flu. You just feel miserable.