The Dish

The decline in violence in Iraq has been reflected in a shift in public opinion since July. Charles Franklin looks at the data here. Jay Reding concludes:

The diminishing importance of Iraq actually benefits the Democrats. For one, even if we do achieve something close to victory in Iraq the media narrative will be that it was in spite of Bush rather than because it. (Even though it was Bush who stuck it through while the Democrats wanted to bug out.) We’ll see the Democrats return to their 2004 message of "we’ll do it smarter" which is a much more tenable position for them to be in than "let’s get the hell out of here." Hillary Clinton’s votes to start the war will seem less consequential if it turns out well. Even more importantly, it lets the Democrats focus on domestic issues where they have greater strength.

Surely this gets well ahead of what we actually know. The causes of the current lull are, by most accounts, tactical success against "AQI" or some of the worst Islamist and Sunni terrorists, some Iranian restraint, Sadr’s cease-fire, increased ethnic separation, Sunni abhorrence of al Qaeda, and exhaustion from chaos. But all of this is undergirded by a more solid US "surge" presence, which will depart next spring. After that? We just don’t know. We do know that national political reconciliation hasn’t happened, and may be further away than ever. We do know that this was the actual point of the surge. And there are ominous indicators that any declaration of "Mission Accomplished" is premature:

Though Sunni extremist groups could revive and “reinfest very quickly,” General Fil said, Iraq’s leaders should now have the peace they need to build a trusted, cross-sectarian government. But progress toward that, he said, has been “disappointing.”

Soon, General Fil said, there will be fewer troops for the Iraqis to rely on. “Already we are at a point where we’ll see that as the surge forces depart the city, we’ll see a natural decline in numbers, and I’m very comfortable where that comes to,” he said.

Violence in Iraq may also be merely shifting geographically as in the past:

Violence, meanwhile, despite recent declines in some areas, has moved to some degree to rural villages and towns from major cities, American and Iraqi commanders said. On Wednesday, two children were killed when a roadside bomb exploded on a farm road in Wasit Province. South of Baquba, Iraqi army patrols found 17 bodies, blindfolded, handcuffed and decayed. Four were found headless about 200 yards away. It was the second mass grave discovered in a rural area this week.

American troops have recently focused more operations on the farm towns and dusty villages of the country, with the latest coming this week outside Kirkuk in the north.

We have stabilized the patient, not brought him out of critical condition. And the doctors leave next spring. Iraq could well not just be in the next campaign; it could well be the biggest issue.

Dana Goodyear does some first-person reportage:

Most people think that this strike will last six months, and that, as before, the writers will not win. People are wondering if, during those months, the loss of biodiversity will bring about the total, irreversible dominance of the nutrient-choking algae of reality TV.

I just spoke to my friend. He and about a hundred other writers were attempting to disrupt the shooting of "Desperate Housewives" by shouting "Shut it down!" and "We write the storia / For Eva Longoria!" Then Longoria had pizza delivered for the strikers.

With such a big lead in public opinion over the Republican party in general, why are the Democratic candidates not performing better in the polls against a nutcase like Giuliani? With the Democratic front-runner, it’s a question of trust:

By 50% to 35%, the poll shows, Americans prefer that a Democrat gets elected to succeed Mr. Bush next November. In a direct matchup of leading candidates, however, that margin shrinks to 46% for Mrs. Clinton and 45% for Mr. Giuliani because of defections from voters like Linda Dunbar.

"I just don’t totally trust her," said the 57-year-old homemaker from the Cleveland suburb of Seven Hills.

Matt Yglesias on an inconvenient truth.

Very Ron Paul.

"I’ll tell you what I like about Obama, which is connected with the book. He really doesn’t like to surround himself only with like-minded others. He really is someone who has never lived and wouldn’t live in an echo chamber. His great skepticism about the red state, blue state divide is just the thought that no particular party has a monopoly on wisdom. He has an amazing line in the "Audacity of Hope" where he says, roughly, there are feminists in the United States who mourn their own abortions, and there are conservative women who have paid for their friends’ daughters’ abortions. And the reason I think this is so great is that it breaks down a sense that Americans come in two types," – Cass Sunstein, Salon.

It appears that Deroy Murdock, NRO’s newest torture flack, is on the faculty of the Institute for Humane Studies.

Cal Thomas joins the throng. What I find astonishing is that serious commentators are only now asking the question of the definition of torture. Some don’t even seem aware that the definition is in the US legal code and always has been and is extremely clear. Thomas’ own reasoning here is shockingly crude and uninformed. it is almost as if many Republicans have not actually wanted to think about this at all.

That’s Zogby’s latest poll on Iowa Dems: once the undecideds are winnowed, it’s Clinton with 30 percent, Obama with 29 and Edwards with 27.

The roll-call. Money quote:

"This historic day marks tremendous progress in efforts to provide basic fairness for gay and lesbian Americans. This long overdue bill makes it very clear that what matters in the workplace is competence and fairness—not sexual orientation," – Patrick Sammon, president Log Cabin Republicans.

But this is Barney’s moment. The Republicans – exempting 35 of them – did their best to link employment non-discrimination to marriage rights, expressing their usual spite toward those gay couples who have dared to commit to one another in law and love, by a legislative distraction. But they failed in the end. And most of us are used to the abuse by now. We do not need their affirmation to love one another. But some do still need some framework of protection in order to work without fear – especially in those states where gay couples have been targeted as public threats to the family.

I haven’t always supported this legislation, and my libertarian heart is not thrilled by it. But every other minority is federally protected from discrimination in employment; it is increasingly a form of prejudice to say that gay people can be fired at will from their jobs just for being who they are. HRC deserves congratulations as well. This was their goal for so long, and now it has finally passed the House. As for Barney, he has such a sharp mind but an even bigger heart. This is his moment. His speech – full of parliamentary procedure and deep, deep pain, catches the throat at the 5 minute mark: