American Catholics and Same-Sex Marriage

They are easily among the most positive of Christian denominations: 42 percent in favor, 48 percent against in the new Pew poll (compared with 14 percent in favor and 81 percent against among white evangelicals). While that cannot please the Vatican, it reflects my own experience of tolerance, acceptance and a commitment to social justice in the pews.

[Update: The first version of this post didn’t mention the fact that mainline Protestants are in the same ballpark of tolerance.]

Rumsfeld Unbowed

From Lisa DePaolo’s interview with Rumsfeld in GQ:

You still like [Bush]? "I do." You don’t talk, though, right? "Uhhh…I’m trying to think. No." Was the last time you talked to him the day you resigned? He can’t recall. What he does recall is that twice before, at the height of the Abu Ghraib disgrace, he offered to resign. "I wrote a note. The first note basically said, ‘Look, this is a difficult problem for our country, and it happened on my watch, and you have my resignation anytime you feel it would be helpful.’ And then I gave him that, and he rejected it. And then I wrote out a longer resignation, and, uh, resigned as opposed to offering a resignation. And he rejected that."

What does that tell you about him?

Long pause. "I don’t know that I want to go there. That’s none of my business. To analyze…"

A month and a half after our visit, Reuters would break the story that Rumsfeld gave his final (and apparently third) resignation letter to the president the day before the midterm elections, though Bush chose not to announce it until the day after, infuriating many Republicans who felt the election could have been won if Rummy had been sacrificed first. In Taos, I asked him if he considered resigning before the elections.

"Uhhh, no," he replied. "But it was very clear in my mind that if the Democrats won the House or the Senate or both, that it made sense for me to…that it would be best for the department if someone else was there."

So it could have been different for you if the Republicans had won?

"Mmm-hmm."

Think about it. If Americans had taken Bill Kristol’s advice and kept the GOP in power last November, Rumsfeld might very well still be SecDef.

Petraeus’ Balancing Act

One of the dangers of propaganda:

"The White House’s strategy of portraying ‘the surge’ of troops as a success could have an unintended effect. The poll found that if General Petraeus were to report that the situation in Iraq was improving, 56 percent thought the United States should then decrease or remove all troops, while 38 percent would favor increasing or keeping the number the same. If he reports that the situation is getting worse, the number supporting a reduction or withdrawal drops to 47 percent, with 43 percent favoring staying on."

He should try the truth.

The GOP And Minorities

I understand why some disagree with debates focused on one interest group or another. But as a practical matter, the major parties do have to contend with minority voting blocs. It seems to me a sign of considerable vulnerability that the Republicans all refused to debate in front of a gay audience and all but McCain refused to debate for Univision. The signal that the GOP is uninterested in anyone not white is not exactly the way to build a majority party.

Surge Stats Update

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TPM’s readers and staff do some leg-work. Money quote:

If you chart the month-to-month civilian casualty statistics just in 2007 then the post-surge monthlies in the AP’s count toggle a bit, but they hit a high in May, drop significantly in June, and creep back upward afterward. In the IBC’s count, since the surge begins, the numbers drop in April, tick up slightly in May and then drop in June. That pattern roughly tracks with the AP’s findings, giving confidence in the methodology of each. (However, the post-April 2007 figures are probably going to be revised upward.)

What the figures do show, however, is that 2007 remains more deadly for Iraqis, month for month, than did 2006. The two exceptions, May and June 2007 in IBC’s count, may not stay exceptions for long, but they count as less deadly months for Iraqis than the previous year. In neither count did Iraq experience fewer than 1000 civilian casualties each month in 2007. Neither of these counts include other important metrics, such as population displacement or sectarian killings; nor killings by Shiite death squads vs. Sunni insurgents; or incidences of car bombings or other mass-casualty events.

Over The Weekend

The Dish – safely back in balmy Washington – was back to full-speed. In case you missed them: how Norman Podhoretz’s Negro problem helped give us the Iraq war; how the Democrats can say "yes" to Petraeus and still win the debate; Eric Cartman’s Bugs Bunny routine with Osama bin Laden; Charles Krauthammer’s defining of "victory" waaay down; and tips for Osama’s beard in "Queer Eye for the Jihadist Guy." Enjoy.

Christianists vs Mormons

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In yet another remarkable irony for the Christianist wing of the GOP, the candidate groomed to represent their views falls victim to religious bigotry among white evangelicals. And, yes, white evangelicals are more likely to be anti-Mormon bigots than white Catholics and non-evangelical Protestants:

The widespread perception that Mitt Romney is very religious would appear to be an asset for the former Massachusetts governor in his race for the Republican nomination: far more Republicans (44%) than either Democrats (26%) or independents (23%) completely agree that it is important for the president to have strong religious beliefs.

But the political benefit Romney receives from this perception is being offset by the concerns that some voters express about Mormonism. Overall, Romney is viewed favorably by 75% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters who offer an opinion of him. However, his favorability rating is much lower among Republican voters who say they would be less likely to vote for a Mormon than among those who have no reluctance about supporting a Mormon (54% vs. 82%).

A quarter of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say they would be less likely to vote for a Mormon. But among white Republican evangelical Protestants, 36% express reservations about voting for a Mormon. That compares with 21% of white Catholic Republican voters, and 16% of white non-evangelical Protestant Republicans.

I just can’t see Romney winning the South as a Mormon. And the GOP is now the Dixie party. One of the consequences of basing your politics on sectarianism, as Bush and Rove have done, is that it limits your appeal to one sect, and all the baggage that comes with it.

(Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty.)

Is The War Salvageable?

That depends on what we mean by the war and what we mean by salvage. Here’s a decent, skeptical primer on the Petraeus testimony. It covers all the main points in six minutes. Asking us to hang in there for yet another six months, hoping for the best, seems to me to be a non-starter. We already bought Iraqi leaders nine months breathing space to come to an agreement. They blew us off.