What Do They Know?

Some security improvement in Anbar and Baghdad shows up in the latest big poll of Iraqis, but it’s over-shadowed by a hefty majority indicating that the "surge" has either done nothing or made things worse:

Fewer than one-quarter of Iraqis report that things in Iraq are going well, down from 35 percent in March, while the number of people who expect conditions to improve in the next year has declined precipitously.

In November 2005, shortly before Iraq’s historic open elections, 69 percent of residents said they believed life would be better in a year. That number decreased to 40 percent last March and 23 percent in the new poll.

The Re-Branding Of Al-Qaeda?

Barnett Rubin offers an interesting analysis of OBL’s latest vlog:

Most of the discussion of Bin Laden’s recent video seems to me to have missed the point. Bin Laden is no longer just seeking to lead Muslims in a jihad against "Crusaders and Zionists"; he is proclaiming to the whole world that the genuine revolutionary alternative to imperialism, capitalism, global warming, genocide, moral decay, confused sex roles, the decline of the family, commercialism, and whatever else ails us is Islam. In this sense Bin Laden is indeed seeking to don the mantle of the last century’s false prophets.

He really did read D’Souza, didn’t he?

The Conscience Of A Conservative

"The Bush administration has operated on an entirely different concept of power that relies on minimal deliberation, unilateral action and legalistic defense. This approach largely eschews politics: the need to explain, to justify, to convince, to get people on board, to compromise," – Jack Goldsmith, "The Terror Presidency."

Perhaps the most significant aspect of Jack Goldsmith’s legal and intellectual career is his conservatism. His view of executive power is much broader than mine – or that of most centrist, let alone liberal, analysts. He was once dubbed one of the "new sovereigntists" because of his hard-right view of presidential power. He has a cramped reading of the Geneva Conventions. But here’s the kicker: even he was forced to resign from the Bush administration because of its contempt for democracy, national unity and the rule of law. It’s fair to say that when you’ve gone too far for Jack Goldsmith, things are pretty dire. And unlike almost the entire phalanx of the craven conservative intelligentsia, Goldsmith actually stood up against what can only be described as the war crimes of the current administration. Here’s an anecdote that tells you a lot, in Jeff Rosen’s must-read yesterday:

Several hours after Goldsmith was sworn in, on Oct. 6, 2003, he recalls that he received a phone call from Gonzales: the White House needed to know as soon as possible whether the Fourth Geneva Convention, which describes protections that explicitly cover civilians in war zones like Iraq, also covered insurgents and terrorists. After several days of study, Goldsmith agreed with lawyers in several other federal agencies, who had concluded that the convention applied to all Iraqi civilians, including terrorists and insurgents. In a meeting with Ashcroft, Goldsmith explained his analysis, which Ashcroft accepted. Later, Goldsmith drove from the Justice Department to the White House for a meeting with Gonzales and [Cheney henchman David] Addington. Goldsmith remembers his deputy Patrick Philbin turning to him in the car and saying: "They’re going to be really mad. They’re not going to understand our decision. They’ve never been told no." …

When Goldsmith presented his analysis of the Geneva Conventions at the White House, Addington, according to Goldsmith, became livid. "The president has already decided that terrorists do not receive Geneva Convention protections," Addington replied angrily, according to Goldsmith. "You cannot question his decision."  …

A perfect summary of the Fuhrerprinzip that Cheney and Bush brought to a vital war, and thereby bungled it. But the lesson seems to me to be more disturbing still.

Goldsmith reveals some of the arguments at work within the administration. There is the notion that only the executive branch has any role in wartime, as if it isn’t imperative to include as many patriots from every branch of government and both parties in a collective endeavor. Lincoln, FDR and Churchill understood this. Bush hasn’t – hence the tragic failures of the last six years. Then there is the notion that the rule of law is an obstacle to democratic life, rather than its lifeblood. There is the deployment of absurd emotional blackmail rather than argument:

Months later, when Goldsmith tried to question another presidential decision, Addington expressed his views even more pointedly. "If you rule that way," Addington exclaimed in disgust, Goldsmith recalls, "the blood of the hundred thousand people who die in the next attack will be on your hands."

And most disturbingly, there is the hope of abolishing legal and democratic restraints on a war-president – in a war defied as a permanent condition – thus:

"We’re one bomb away from getting rid of that obnoxious [FISA] court," Goldsmith recalls Addington telling him in February 2004.

There you have Addington hoping for another terror attack in order to extend the arbitrary rule of one man. The FISA court, of course, would have approved most of what Bush and Cheney wanted in surveillance. So would Congress. But that would have impinged upon the Fuhrerprinzip. If you want to know how the United States became a force for the legitimization of torture, get to know more about David Addington. If you want to know how democracies perish, think about that quote.

Unready Freddy

My take in the Sunday Times:

Thompson is accused of being lazy. So was Ronald Reagan, of course. But there is a key difference between the Reagan of 1979 and the Thompson of 2007. Reagan had spent a lifetime honing arguments, finessing policy, articulating a broad philosophical view, while proposing concrete and radical policy options.

Thompson has a legislative record as a senator from Tennessee that is all but invisible. Yes, he has a solid conservative record on taxes and other people’s spending. But he was a hog for his home-state pork barrel projects. He was, in other words, a popular backbencher – but no more. At times his candidacy feels merely like a rationale for a man who senses that Americans are deeply uneasy about their current leadership, wants to reassure them, but has no idea substantively how.

A thinker he isn’t. He’s rather a conveyor of mood. In a period of less moment, when less is at stake, this might be an aesthetic preference: a calm presence in a storm. But on the substance of war, and foreign policy, the Thompson shtick can seem somewhat detached from the needs of the moment.

A Former Bushie On Iraq

Matthew Dowd speaks his mind:

1. In the public’s mind, the Iraq War was a mistake, and continuing the status quo is simply continuing on with a mistake. As a result, most Americans now view the situation in Iraq as a "rearview" mirror issue — meaning that the public believes it is time to focus on the process of ending our involvement and getting out quickly. They see American troops as targets in a place we aren’t wanted, and they desire a plan which achieves responsible withdrawal in the quickest and safest way.

2. The public does not see withdrawal from Iraq as a signal America doesn’t support the troops. In fact, the public sees removing the troops from harm’s way and having them in a place where the mission is supported, welcomed and understood as the most proper way to support our troops.

That’s a start. The question now is fundamentally how to recast the mission as a triage partition and get us out of there as swiftly and as responsibly as possible. What we should be debating is how we achieve this – not whether we can still "win" something – a unified, non-autocratic Iraq – that we have already lost.

The Unraveling Of Michael Hayden

Not ready for prime-time at the Council on Foreign Relations last Friday, according to Scott Horton. Scott has a question for Hayden:

Would Robert Jackson have prosecuted someone for using these techniques on one of our intelligence operatives in World War II? The answer with respect to the "enhanced interrogation techniques" of which you’re so fond is clear (indeed, it’s historically documented). There isn’t any ambiguity, actually.

Oh, Yes, They Can

A reader writes:

You wrote:

They couldn’t be that stupid, could they?

I shall paraphrase, but you will get it.

1. Conflating Saddam with the 9/11 attacks.

2. Saddam has absolutely reconstituted his WMD program.

3. Occupying a country the size of Iraq with 160,000 troops which included support troops. Had it been 160,000 combat troops (Infantry, Armor, and Artillery) with the appropriate support contingent we may have had a chance.

4.Disbanding a standing army. THEN telling them they will not be paid! Oh, and by the way take your guns with you!

5. Mission Accomplished.

6. Bring it on!

7. We have to fight them over there, so we don’t have to fight them here.

8. As the Iraqi Army stands up, we will stand down.

9. Firing Rumsfeld AFTER the ’06 election. So we give a failed SecDef  3 1/2 years to get it right.

I paraphrase. You decide.

The exclusive Fox gig is now confirmed. And that’s not the only example of the partisan politicization of the US military.