The Summer Of Our Discontent

I don’t think even the GOP alarmists expected this:

More Americans — 72 percent — now say that "generally, things in the country are seriously off on the wrong track" than at any time since the Times/CBS News poll began asking the question in 1983. The figure had been in the high 60’s earlier this year.

That’s a staggering indicator of how disgruntled Americans are. The numbers on the war in Iraq are grim:

A large majority of the public — 76 percent, including a majority of Republicans — say that the additional American troops sent to Iraq this year by Mr. Bush have either had no impact or are making things worse there. Twenty percent think the troop increase is improving the situation in Iraq.

The 20 percent is the core support for the Republican party. The Democrats haven’t won over everyone else yet – but any opposition party in this climate has a massive advantage. Bush has indeed become Carter – except he’s had two terms to poison the brand of conservatism. Bush’s response is perhaps best summed up by this reader:

Bush said today that we should expect an escalation of violence in Iraq because the enemy know that September is a key date for political opinion. So, let me get this straight: if there is less violence, it obviously means the surge is working, and if there is more violence it means the enemy is desperate to get us out and the surge is working. And the two people who get to decide if the surge is working are the architect of the surge (Petraeus) and the man who gave the surge the go-ahead (Bush). What are the odds we’ll hear in September that the surge is not working?

The Congress ultimately has the power and, in my view, is wise to let this "surge" gain momentum this summer to see if it truly can make an iota of a difference. We should absolutely listen to Petraeus in September. But no general is going to declare his own initiative a failure. We have the critical criteria – political benchmarks and data on sectarian violence and terror attacks. The president himself has given us the benchmarks. And in September, we get to tell him who the real deciders are: the American and the Iraqi people.  It’s called democracy. It’s what we’re fighting for.

The Founders and Faith

We’re back to Locke. Jonathan Rowe explains:

Whenever I criticize the more extreme elements of Islam, I always stress that most Muslims say this doesn’t represent the authentic version of their faith. Now, in truth, I have no idea whether I’m right and may well be engaging in a Straussian lie. But, if Islam, as a faith, isn’t going away — and I don’t think it is — Muslims must be convinced that a more liberal, sober and rational understanding of their faith is the authentic one. This is exactly what Madison tried to do with Christians in his Memorial and Remonstrance.

… The paradox is, the rights of conscience are so profound government has no business saying what is true or false religion. Yet, government indeed does have an interest in promoting the ‘right’ kind of religion, that is religion compatible with liberal democratic, secular, pluralistic norms. Our Founders did to Christianity what the modern liberal governments and institutions, are, or ought to be doing to Islam (like telling folks extreme Islam doesn’t represent authentic Islam).

More comment from a "tolerant atheist" here. Pharyngula prefers the term "do-nothing atheist."

Immigration, Blacks, Crime

George Borjas blogs some striking data. Arnold Kling has a cow:

[Borjas] blogs his research showing that immigration increases black crime by reducing black wages. In other words, "The immigrants made me do it." I’m not surprised by the result, but I’d think the obvious solution (drug legalization aside) is harsher punishments for a few thousand murderers, not exile for millions of hard-working immigrants.

Muscleheads

Gulliver

A reader writes:

In old fashioned one-on-one confrontations with nation states (or schoolyard bullies) muscle power can be a leading asset, but when confronting a new era of  wide-spread technological empowerment of disparate populations, unrestrained muscle power becomes self-defeating clumsiness. The musclehead approach of this administration and most of the Republican candidates will for now and for the future lead to Gulliver-esque results for this nation and those who align themselves with it. What’s happening in Iraq is the future; they’re learning from it, but we certainly don’t seem to be doing the same.