What The Shutdown Has Wrought

Republican recklessness has hurt the party’s chances in the Senate:

New PPP polls of 6 key Senate races that will determine control of the body after next year’s election finds voters extremely unhappy about the government shutdown. As a result Republicans trail in 5 of the 6 key races and are tied in the 6th. Republicans need to win 6 seats to take control of the Senate.

Larison analyzes the poll:

As the crosstabs show, the shutdown is usually driving more independents away from Republican candidates than it is attracting. Republican control of the House likely isn’t in jeopardy next year, but these results reveal that the shutdown has done substantial damage to the GOP’s Senate hopes. The party has demonstrated that it can’t be trusted with more power, and it seems that voters in many parts of the country are not inclined to give them more.

How The House Spent Its Day

Berating the director of the National Park Services, Jonathan Jarvis:

Nora Caplan-Bricker puts this piece of political theater in perspective:

Whether or not the parks service did a flawless job implementing the shutdown (after furloughing over 20,000 of its roughly 23,000 employees), only in a funhouse-mirror version of reality should members of Congress be debating the functions of an agency that accounts for .0006 percent of the federal budget on the day before we may default on our national debt.

Tim Murphy also covered the hearing:

Republican congressmen had a handy point of comparison for the closures on the National Mall: Occupy DC set up camp on the NPS-maintained McPherson Square for 100 days in 2011 without harassment from park police. “Do you consider it an exercise of your First Amendment right to walk to a monument that you helped build,” Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.) asked Jarvis, “or is it only just smoking pot at McPherson Square?”

Rep. John Mica (R-Fla.) seized on a quote, provided anonymously from a NPS ranger to aWashington Times columnist, that “we’ve been told to make life as difficult for the people as we can.” Over the last two weeks, conservatives have cited this as evidence the White House may have orchestrated the monument closures. Jarvis insisted that it was strictly an NPS decision. He denied any such order to make life difficult and said the quote—which after all appeared in a newspaper that regularly publishes Ted Nugent—was “hearsay.” “It may be hearsay,” Mica said, but he was sticking to it.

Can The GOP Recover?

First Read remains hopeful:

Almost a year removed from the Obama-Romney presidential election, 2013 has been a lost year for the Republican Party. Has it improved upon its image problem? Nope. Has it fixed its shortcomings with women and minority voters? Nope. Is it in a stronger place than it was in Oct. 2012? No way. Perhaps more than anything else, the GOP remains blinded by the health-care law — and by President Obama himself (who will never run for office again). Indeed, in some ways, you could see this entire shutdown/debt ceiling debate over the president’s health-care law as a replay of the House GOP’s impeachment of Bill Clinton in 1998 — a last-ditch fight against the term-limited incumbent. The good news for the Republican Party is that the Clinton impeachment is a reminder that its problems can be fixed. After all, the GOP won the White House just after Clinton’s impeachment.

Felix, on the other hand, compares the Tea Party to a pack of zombies:

Yes, the President has won an important battle against the zombies. But while it’s possible to win a zombie battle, it’s never possible to win a zombie war. No matter how many individual zombies you dispatch, there will always be ten more where they came from. The Tea Party doesn’t take legislative defeat as a signal that it’s doing something wrong: it takes it as a signal that nothing has really changed in Washington and that they therefore need to redouble their nihilistic efforts. Take it from me: come February, or March, or whenever we end up having to have this idiotic debt-ceiling fight all over again, the Tea Party will still be there, and will still be as crazy as ever. A bruised zombie, ultimately, is just a scarier zombie.

Chait differs:

[W]ill Republicans continue to hold the debt ceiling hostage indefinitely (or, at least, until a Republican occupies the White House)? I doubt it. The debt-ceiling fight was not brought on by Ted Cruz and his baying hordes. It was actually the preferred strategy of mainstream Republicans, especially Paul Ryan. The Ryanites opposed shutting the government down because they wanted to extort Obama with default. The crazies who favored the shutdown were actually willing to lift the debt ceiling so they could keep the shutdown going.

The Democrats Have Finally Grown A Spine

Ezra looks at what it has gotten them:

Democrats managed to get the budget conference they’ve been pursuing for six months. They got a CR of the length they wanted and ending before the next sequestration cuts rather than six-month CR that Sen. Susan Collins proposed. They got a debt-ceiling increase all the way into February. This is far beyond what Democrats thought possible on Sept. 30.

But the strategy Ted Cruz managed to force on the GOP was so suicidal that Democrats felt comfortable forcing Republicans to cave completely. They were so confident that they managed to reject a deal proposed by Sen. Susan Collins and supported by many Senate Democrats because it funded the government for longer than the Democratic leadership preferred. That’s a level of control over the outcome that Democrats never expected to have.

Going forward, not only will Republicans be afraid to shut down the government or threaten the debt ceiling again during this Congress, but if Republicans somehow end up doing it anyway, Democrats will be unafraid of the fight.

Josh Marshall gives Obama credit for standing strong:

Many Republicans knew this was going to be a disaster going in. But just as many totally misread Obama. Just days before the shutdown numerous high profile Republicans insisted there was no way Obama wouldn’t negotiate. But probably the key driver of this drama has been President Obama’s refusal to negotiate over raising the debt ceiling. Yes, there’s been some back and forth here at the end, but as begging like this suggests, it’s mainly been to sort of out terms of surrender. But that refusal has defined the entire standoff.

A Party That Can’t Be Trusted

Dreher has had enough with the GOP:

I cannot believe I’m saying this, but I hope the House flips to the Democrats in 2014, so we can be rid of these nuts. Let Ted Cruz sit in the Senate stewing in his precious bodily fluids, and let Washington get back to the business of governing.

A-fucking-men. Larison nods:

After watching the display of the last few weeks, it is hard to argue that Republicans should have control over any part of the government. It is even harder to believe that they should increase what control they have.

Millman isn’t particularly “pessimistic about the GOP’s chances in the next couple of elections as a consequence of their manifest insanity”:

The electorate is fickle, after all. For that very reason, though, I’m quite pessimistic about the quality of governance in this country going forward.

The Game Cruz Is Playing

Here he is announcing that he won’t delay the Senate bill:

Barro has his number:

Nothing has changed today to make delay and destruction any more futile than it was yesterday, back when Cruz was in favor of delay and destruction.

The only thing that has changed, I think, is that Ted Cruz has more to lose than to gain by continuing to wreak havoc. He made his point and drastically increased his national profile. He built an army of deluded conservative supporters who adore him. Taking another grandstanding opportunity and pushing this Senate vote back by a day or two won’t raise his profile very much, and it will make his Republican colleagues even more furious with him than they already are.

But in the future, when wreaking havoc is once again in Cruz’s political interest, you can expect him to do so.

Allahpundit unpacks Cruz’s strategy:

[H]e already positioned himself as “the purest conservative in the 2016 field” after all this? The policy goal of defunding O-Care was always quixotic but the political benefits of pounding the table against the law, staging a 21-hour speech against it, and backing the first major government shutdown in nearly 20 years to protest it are obvious. Whether he’s now the “purest” conservative in the field, he’s certainly the most famously populist conservative. Which, I think, was his main goal on the political side of this.

Weigel adds:

Cruz was never going to jam the House by delaying a deal and absorbing all the blame for the consequences. That the media thought so reveals that his image has changed radically since getting to the Senate. He’s no longer viewed as the GOP’s answer to Barack Obama. The media views him as the Sarah Palin of the Senate.

The Political Price Of Epistemic Closure, Ctd

Debt Ceiling Denailism

Plumer flags the numbers above from Pew:

[A] majority of Republicans say that the United States can blow past the Oct. 17 debt ceiling deadline without “major economic problems,” Pew finds. But what’s striking is that 52 percent of tea party Republicans don’t think we ever need to raise the ceiling.

Maybe this is the moment we discuss the Dunning-Kruger Effect, defined thus:

The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes.

Of course, understanding that the debt ceiling is not permission to raise spending further but merely to pay the bills already agreed to is counter-intuitive. It takes some explanation. People aren’t stupid for grasping this, just understandably ill-informed. But that’s where elites are necessary, from within a political coalition. And those elites are missing or compromised. John McCain can complain all he likes about wacko-birds. But who was it who put a Class A wacko-bird on his own national ticket? McCain empowered Palinism as much as anyone. A reader adds:

First, thanks for your continuing coverage and commentary regarding the debt limit and government shutdown battle. My thought is this: where is the courage of the leaders of the Republicans?  Where is the Bush family?  Where are the so-called moderates, like Chris Christie?

Where are the business leaders? They should be hammering the GOP to extend the debt limit. They have much at stake, far more than any favors the GOP can do for them. Why are the more sane thought leaders and influencers of the Republican party either silent, or at the very least very reserved?  Are they all afraid of the bullies in the Tea Party and conservative media? My feeling is that if anyone stood up to the bullies, they would find that bullies usually back down when confronted and are not that tough.

The national and world economies hang in the balance.  Our leadership in the world hangs in the balance. Make no mistake, if the US defaults this country will never be the world leader it is today again.  There is so much at stake that you think some on the GOP and their allies in the corporate community would rise up to tame the radicals in the party.

The Tea Party is like crack to the Republican party.  It has produced some highs, but it is also a poison that destroys.  Someone in the GOP needs to get the party to break its addiction.

But intelligent, educated Republicans, like Charles Krauthammer and George Will have defected to the loonies. The Bush family? They’ve made some sane comments – but not at a critical moment like this past week, when one would have thought their simple patriotism would have demanded some kind of intervention. And so the epistemic closure tightens and out polity’s dysfunction intensifies still more.

The Tea Party As A Religion

Mitt Romney Attends Tea Party Rally In New Hampshire

Dishheads know I believe that you cannot understand the current GOP without also grasping how bewildered so many people are by the dizzying onset of modernity. The 21st Century has brought Islamist war to America, the worst recession since the 1930s, a debt-ridden federal government, a majority-minority future, gay marriage, universal healthcare and legal weed. If you were still seething from the eruption of the 1960s, and thought that Reagan had ended all that, then the resilience of a pluralistic, multi-racial, fast-miscegenating, post-gay America, whose president looks like the future, not the past, you would indeed, at this point, be in a world-class, meshugganah, cultural panic.

When you add in the fact that the American dream stopped working for most working-class folks at some point in the mid 1970s, and when you see the national debt soaring from the Reagan years onward, made much worse by the Bush-Cheney years, and then exploded by the recession Bush bequeathed, you have a combustible mixture. It’s very easy to lump all this together into a paranoid fantasy of an American apocalypse that must somehow be stopped at all cost. In trying to understand the far-right mindset – which accounts for around a quarter of the country – I think you have to zoom out and see all of this in context.

Many of us found in Barack Obama a very post-ideological president, a pragmatist, a Christian, and a traditional family man, and naively NEGATIVE# josephm 210524--SLUG-ME-VA-AG-1-DATE--11/03/2009--LOCAbelieved that he could both repair the enormous damage done by the Bush-Cheney administration and simultaneously reach out to the red states as well. I refuse to say the failure is his. Because he tried. For years, he was lambasted by the left for being far too accommodating, far too reasonable, aloof, not scrappy enough, weak … you know the drill by now. In fact, he was just trying to bring as much of the country along as he could in tackling the huge recession and massive debt he inherited at one and the same time, and in unwinding the 9/11 emergency, and in ending two wars and the morally and legally crippling legacy of torture (about which the GOP is simply in rigid denial).

Obama got zero votes from House Republicans for a desperately needed stimulus in his first weeks in office. So I cannot believe he could have maintained any sort of detente with the Republican right, dominated by the legacy of Palin, rather than McCain. But the healthcare reform clearly ended any sort of possibility of coexistence – and the cold civil war took off again. The first black president could, perhaps, clean up some of the mess of his predecessor, but as soon as he moved on an actual substantive change that he wanted and campaigned on, he was deemed illegitimate. Even though that change was, by any standards, a moderate one, catering to private interests, such as drug and insurance companies; even though it had no public option; even though its outline was the same as the GOP’s 2012 nominee’s in GOP Candidates Rick Perry And Michelle Bachmann Appear At Columbia, SC Veterans Day ParadeMassachusetts, this inching toward a more liberal America was the casus belli. It still is – which is why it looms so large for the Republican right in ways that can easily befuddle the rest of us.

But it is emphatically not the real reason for the revolt. It is the symptom, not the cause. My rule of thumb is pretty simple: whenever you hear a quote about Obamacare, it’s more illuminating to remove the “care” part. And Obama is a symbol of change people cannot understand, are frightened by, and seek refuge from.

That desperate need for certainty and security is what I focused on in my book about all this, The Conservative Soul. What the understandably beleaguered citizens of this new modern order want is a pristine variety of America that feels like the one they grew up in. They want truths that ring without any timbre of doubt. They want root-and-branch reform – to the days of the American Revolution. And they want all of this as a pre-packaged ideology, preferably aligned with re-written American history, and reiterated as a theater of comfort and nostalgia. They want their presidents white and their budget balanced now. That balancing it now would tip the whole world into a second depression sounds like elite cant to them; that America is, as a matter of fact, a coffee-colored country – and stronger for it – does not remove their desire for it not to be so; indeed it intensifies their futile effort to stop immigration reform. And given the apocalyptic nature of their view of what is going on, it is only natural that they would seek a totalist, radical, revolutionary halt to all of it, even if it creates economic chaos, even if it destroys millions of jobs, even though it keeps millions in immigration limbo, even if it means an unprecedented default on the debt.

This is a religion – but a particularly modern, extreme and unthinking fundamentalist religion. And such a form of religion is the antithesis of the mainline Protestantism that once dominated the Republican party as well, to a lesser extent, the Democratic party.

It also brooks no distinction between religion and politics, seeing them as fused in the same cultural and religious battle. Much of the GOP hails from that new purist, apocalyptic sect right now – and certainly no one else is attacking that kind of religious organization. But it will do to institutional political parties what entrepreneurial fundamentalism does to mainline churches: its appeal to absolute truth, total rectitude and simplicity of worldview instantly trumps tradition, reason, moderation, compromise.

Francis Wilkinson has studied the scholarship of Roger Finke and Rodney Stark, authors of The Churching of America 1776-1990. He wrote a passage yesterday that resonated with me:

An important thesis of the book is that as religious organizations grow powerful and complacent, and their adherents do likewise, they make themselves vulnerable to challenges from upstart sects that “impose significant costs in terms of sacrifice and even stigma upon their members.” For insurgent groups, fervor and discipline are their own rewards.

Right now, the Republican Party is an object of contempt to many on the far right, whose adamant convictions threaten what they perceive as Republican complacency. The Tea Party is akin to a rowdy evangelical storefront beckoning down the road from the staid Episcopal cathedral. Writing of insurgent congregations, Finke and Stark said that “sectarian members are either in or out; they must follow the demands of the group or withdraw. The ‘seductive middle ground’ is lost.”

In other words, this is not just a cold civil war. It is also a religious war – between fundamentalism and faith, between totalism and tradition, between certainty and reasoned doubt. It may need to burn itself out – with all the social and economic and human damage that entails. Or it can be defeated, as Lincoln reluctantly did to his fanatical enemies, or absorbed and coopted, as Elizabeth I did hers over decades. But it will take time. The question is what will be left of America once it subsides, and how great a cost it will have imposed.

(Photos: from a Tea Party rally, Ken Cucinnelli, far right candidate for governor of Virginia, and Michele Bachmann, apocalyptic prophet, by Getty Images.)

Meep Meep

The deal just announced strikes me as an even bigger defeat for the Cruzniks than seemed possible even a day ago:

wile-e-coyoteThe deal, with the government shutdown in its third week, yielded virtually no concessions to the Republicans, other than some minor tightening of income verifications for people obtaining subsidized insurance under the health care law. Under the agreement, the government would be funded through Jan. 15, and the debt ceiling would be raised until Feb. 7. The Senate will take up a separate motion to instruct House and Senate negotiators to reach accord by Dec. 13 on a long-term blueprint for tax-and-spending policies over the next decade.

Cruz will not stand in the way. The one critical factor in resolving this? The president’s poker-faced refusal to compromise the way he did in 2011. He has not been center-stage this past week, but that doesn’t mean his stance hasn’t affected this fiasco. It saved us. Costa:

Votes on the measure will begin this afternoon. The Senate will vote first, and then the House will consider the legislation. House leadership aides predict if 70-plus senators support the deal, it’ll have an easier chance of winning Republican votes in the House… Most Senate Republicans are expected to back the agreement, according to sources familiar with the whip count.

Here’s hoping the House can get a bipartisan majority as well.

It Will Only Get Worse

Tomasky crouches:

This is the worst it’s ever been in modern America. But it is going to get worse. They aren’t going to stop hating Obama and Obamacare. They aren’t suddenly going to decide to make their peace with him or it. They sure aren’t going to decide that gee, using default as leverage is naughty. A big chunk of them want the United States to default on Obama’s watch, so they can then blame him for what they themselves caused, say, “The black guy wrecked the economy. Couldn’t you have predicted it?” New horrors await us that you and I, being normal people, can’t begin to dream up. But rest assured, they will.

I loved this quote from Congresswoman Jacqueline Speier:

This is like a pre school that’s gone awry. I’ve been in public office for 30 years, and I’ve never seen anything like it.

I’d say that’s putting it mildly. But here’s Brit Hume last night rationalizing the Tea Party’s dead-end strategy at the expense of the nation and the world:

In conventional terms, it seems inexplicable, but Senator Cruz and his adherents do not view things in conventional terms. They look back over the past half-century, including the supposedly golden era of Ronald Reagan, and see the uninterrupted forward march of the American left. Entitlement spending never stopped growing. The regulatory state continued to expand. The national debt grew and grew and finally in the Obama years, exploded. They see an American population becoming unrecognizable from the free and self-reliant people they thought they knew.

And they see the Republican Party as having utterly failed to stop the drift toward an unfree nation supervised by an overweening and bloated bureaucracy. They are not interested in Republican policies that merely slow the growth of this leviathan. They want to stop it and reverse it. And they want to show their supporters they’ll try anything to bring that about. And if some of those things turn out to be reckless and doomed, well so be it.”

On cue, Eric Erickson calls for an even more extreme Republican party:

We only need a few good small businessmen and women to stand up and challenge these Republicans who are caving. If they refuse to fight for us, we must fight them. It is the only way we will finally be able to fight against Obamacare. I am tired of funding Republicans who campaign against Obamacare then refuse to fight. It’s time to find a new batch of Republicans to actually practice what the current crop preaches.

And the beat goes on.