A useful reminder.
SPIN AND SQUIRM: Mickey – “Don’t Rush Me, Rush Rummy” – Kaus is backing his friend (and mine) Bob Wright for the following assertion (made only two days ago!) that
as the war drags on, any stifled sympathy for the American invasion will tend to evaporate. As more civilians die and more Iraqis see their “resistance” hailed across the Arab world as a watershed in the struggle against Western imperialism, the traditionally despised Saddam could gain appreciable support among his people. So, the Pentagon’s failure to send enough troops to take Baghdad fairly quickly could complicate the postwar occupation, to say nothing of the war itself.
It’s a valiant effort, even as Bob’s piece seems to be moving inexorably toward a von Hoffman award (not yet, but it’s not looking good for the earthling U.N.-lover). Here’s a pitch-perfect rear-guard “spin and squirm” “what-did-the-Romans-ever-do-for-us?” pirouette from Mickey:
It’s true that the military picture has seemingly improved since Wright’s piece was posted; his how-can-we-trust-the-hawks-who-muffed-the-war-to-remake-the-Middle-East argument has less force than it did even 24 hours ago. But the hawks were surprised by initial resistance in the South (even if it was mainly resistance obtained at gunpoint), and Rumsfeld still did send too few troops, it seems — even if the war overall is going well so far. So there’s still room for doubting the hawks grander rosy scenarios.
The phrase “it seems — even if the war overall is going well so far” is the qualification only a master blogger could pull off. So’s the final sentence. If there’s room for doubting the hawks’ “grander” rosy scenarios, is there no room for doubting the less grand ones, like, er, that Rummy hasn’t obviously screwed up so far? In fact, to the naked eye, he’s kicking butt. Surely the best neoliberal criterion should still be Kenneth Pollack’s (partly because it wasn’t made with any of the current debate in mind):
Probably the most likely scenario would be about one third of Iraq’s armed forces fighting hard, limited use of tactical WMD, and some extensive combat in a few cities. In this most likely case, the campaign would probably last four to eight weeks and result in roughly 500 to 1,000 American combat deaths.
To argue that the war has taken much longer than necessary seems to me at this point to be pushing credulity. At the current rate of progress, it looks as if we’re going to come in at the lower end of Pollack’s estimate. But I guess the anti-neo-cons have got to grasp at something. If things continue at this pace, it’s going to be a cluster of von Hoffman awards.
The Dish 