BLAIR IN TROUBLE

The first big actual surprise has been in the London constituency, Putney, a tight Conservative-Labour battleground district. The Tories won the seat from Labour on a 6.2 percent swing. It’s worth reiterating: Don’t trust the national exit polls. The constituency-by-constituency battle is what matters. The Putney result suggests a real, big gain for the Tories. But Putney is just one seat. Nevertheless, my gut instinct a week ago may well be right. If Blair’s majority goes below 50, he’ll have to go. This is looking like a real Tory success. Yes, I’m a partisan. I respect and like Blair; but I’m a Tory at heart.