As we’ve pointed out and has been pointed out elsewhere, the remaining votes come from Begich-friendly districts. Mark Begich is now an overwhelming favorite to win the Alaska Senate seat.
Sam Wang also expects a Begich win:
As I predicted from polls, Begich is pulling ahead. Andrew Sullivan is still clinging to the idea that turnout is suspiciously down from 2004, which I have pointed out may not be true. I’ll stick with my prediction of a Begich win by 2-7%, and normal turnout. In the face of hard polling data, a straightforward interpretation without conspiracies is most likely to be right.