The View From Your Recession

A reader writes:

In Santa Maria, a modest little community of 130,000 on the central coast of California, the surnames of the seller and buyer of every property in the area are listed in the Sunday real estate section of our local newspaper.  Most of the sellers are banks.  But most of the buyers have Hispanic surnames, and the selling prices are way down from what they were just two years ago.  While I know that every property sold by a bank represents a family foreclosed upon, I'm nevertheless heartened to see that so many of our working and middle class families are finally realizing the American dream of homeownership. 

The Hispanic population of Santa Maria has been over 50% for many years, yet historically their share of property ownership has not been reflected in their numbers. Housing prices between Carpinteria and Paso Robles have always been much higher than in most similar sized cities elsewhere, mostly due to the Goldlilocks climate and natural beauty that abounds here. 
 
As for my own personal recession?  I work for a community college and although my job is secure, there isn’t enough money in the State’s budget to accommodate the rapid rise in enrollments we experienced this year.  So rather than absorbing the unemployed and retraining them for new jobs in the upcoming “green” economy, we had to turn them away.  With my house and car paid for, my credit card debt less than ten percent of my net wages, wages which for an older, single woman with no children are well more than I need to survive, I cannot complain.  I wish I had more in my savings account, but I’d rather be debt free first, so most of my paycheck goes to paying down my debt.  I must admit that I’m not stimulating the economy much these past few months, nor do I plan to until I am debt free and can pay cash for everything. 
 
Having survived several recessions since I first entered the workforce in 1969, this one scares me the most.  I think it’s because I’m older, and the time and flexibility it takes to “bounce back” from a financial setback just doesn’t exist for me anymore.

Palin And The Rule Of Law

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The very model of a modern Republican. And her nominated attorney general gives the Cheney view of constitutional propriety:

“It seems to me the most important thing that can be done by the Senate is not argue with legal or illegal but to appoint somebody to represent Juneau.”

The term now being used to describe a governor who personally barges into a legislator's office to pick a personal fight with one of his staffers: "erratic behavior." I'm just waiting for revelation myself.

Choice, Costs, And Healthcare, Ctd.

A reader writes:

Your reader's response to Mickey's post is a good example of what people don't understand about healthcare costs.  I'm a healthcare research analyst – I can tell you without a doubt that the healthcare that we're buying today is indeed much more "advanced" than what we were buying 5 years ago, and in many cases is beyond what most people would have dreamed of 15 years ago.  I'm amazed on a regular basis by the technological advances people are coming up with. 

A more legitimate question however is whether or not the incredible technology we're purchasing today is worth the extra money it costs, and there is no broad answer for this.

The decision is a very personal and individual one.   Should my 84 year old father get a $100k course of the newest radiation therapy cancer treatment that will essentially cure his cancer, but probably only extend his life expectancy by 1 year due to his advanced age?  If it's my father, my answer is yes I'll gladly pay it.  And, as long as someone else is paying the bill (insurance company, the government) the answer on an individual level is always going to be yes.  But the problem is a lot of people can't actually afford the latest technology to come down the pipeline, and we as a nation can't afford to pay for everyone to have it either (next week the government will announce that Medicare Trust Fund will be insolvent in less than 10 years).

This leads me to a related key problem in the market for insurance – regulations require insurers to essentially offer comprehensive "all or nothing" plans.  If you're an insurance company, good luck trying to go into a neighborhood and offer a watered down plan at a price that people can actually afford – a plan that may not cover the $100k latest and greatest radiation therapy but does pay for the lower-tech radiation therapy that was all the rage 4 years ago that costs 85% less, covers basic care, immunizations, etc, and, more importantly, does it at a price tag that doesn't force lower income families to make a choice between basic health insurance or a winter coat.  Our laws prevent this from taking place b/c it's viewed as undesirable that some people should have health coverage that doesn't allow them access to the new $100k treatment.  We don't allow people to purchase lower quality insurance (lower quality translates to lower tech) than others – so these people wind up with either no insurance or on Medicaid instead.  It's the wacky idea that every single American must have – no matter the cost – the absolute gold standard in healthcare that gets us into trouble.  We may be the richest country in the world, but we simply don't have the resources for that.   

Another little secret that the average voter – especially those who think the gov't could do it cheaper – doesn't comprehend is that a primary reason private healthcare insurance costs as much as it does today is that anyone who buys private insurance is subsidizing a large chunk of the government run programs. You're typical community hospital loses money everytime a Medicaid patient walks through the door.  And Medicaid patients can easily account for 30-50% of a hospitals visits.   So either the hospital bleeds money until it runs out of funding and has to shut it's doors, or it passes the cost of caring for Medicaid and many Medicare patients by charging the private insurance companies higher and higher rates.  The private insurance companies have to pass these costs on to their members by hiking premiums, and raising deductibles and copays (I hate to be in the position of defending insurance companies, but the idea that insurance companies are making windfall profits by raising premiums is a fallacy).  So it's not just taxes that go up every time the gov't expands the eligibility requirements to get Medicaid – private insurance premiums go up to b/c the doctors hospitals have to pay for this new volume some how.    

The problem with your reader's desire to let the government compete with private plans is that the government does not compete – the government makes the rules – it sets (low) prices, often decides what care is "necessary", forces mandatory participation of providers, and subsidizes the costs of the program with taxpayer money.   This would be fantastic for your reader for a couple years – but it does nothing to actually control costs, and a few years from now either hospitals and doctors go out of business or Medicaid rates would have to increase by about 50-60%…which puts us right back into the situation we're in now, except the taxpayers would be paying for 100% of the exploding costs of healthcare.  It's not anything close to a solution.  It's just kicking the can down the road a little further. 

How Powerful Are the Orthodox?

Larison joins the LinkerDouthatPoulos Moral Therapeutic Deism debate:

Perhaps if there had been more genuinely traditional and orthodox voices whispering to Mr. Bush that he was mortal, warning that pride is one of the most dangerous sins, or explaining to him that chiliasm and gnosticism were grave errors, he would not have been so ready to embark on path of mad revolutionary warfare and global transformation. Orthodoxy had no influence, but naturally Linker believes that it still had too much, which pretty well sums up his misreading of the religious and political landscape today.

Criminals, Nothing More

Fred Kaplan makes sensible points about Somali piracy:

Allow authorized crewmembers to shoot pirates—the fact that armed outsiders are boarding a merchant ship in international waters should be deemed sufficient provocation. Declare a safety zone around merchant ships—anyone crossing into the zone is warned to cross back; those who proceed face the risk of getting shot. Armed marshals should be required onboard merchant ships traveling through straits declared to be dangerous, especially if they are carrying particularly sensitive goods; the marshals could be paid out of a common international fund.

Obama Comes Through?

Mark Mazzetti reports:

After a tense internal debate, the Obama administration this afternoon will make public a number of detailed memos describing the harsh interrogation techniques used by the Central Intelligence Agency against al Qaeda suspects in secret overseas prisons.

Fantastic news, as long as the memos are unredacted. We'll see soon enough.

Tea-Baggers In Chicago

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Huffpo has a round-up of some of the creepiest signs at the Fox News/PJTV rallies. There will, of course, always be a fringe; and that shouldn't delegitimize protests that demonstrate genuine concern at future debt. But like the pre-war anti-war movement, the extremists always seem too close to the core of the movement for comfort.