Hathos Alert

Tim Nudd sums it up nicely:

Just when you think political ads can't get any worse, along comes this four-minute travesty starring a rat (a stand-in for the villainous Democratic former governor, Roy Barnes) and an ox (representing the ad's strong though perhaps somewhat dumb creator, John Oxendine). Via The Awl, which believes the ad "is not just stupid, it is powerful stupid." A commenter over there adds: "This is the most Aesopian campaign ad ever!"

Or the point at which politics becomes South Park. Go to the 2:15 mark and the head-butting montage. It's mesmerizingly kick-ass.

The Lethal Politics Of The Opt-Out Public Option, Ctd

A reader adds:

It's a great point, and one the Republicans should be scared to death of, but the truth of the matter is: there is no way any Republican up for election in 2010 can support a public option opt-out and then not worry about what might happen in their primary or their political future in the Republican party. 

Look at how Charlie Crist has been demonized for supporting the stimulus … that's small potatoes compared to the backlash that would come from supporting the public option.  But then what happens if they oppose, win the primary, and have to face the rest of the public option friendly electorate? NY's 23rd anyone?

Obama plays chess while the GOP is still playing checkers with a timer.

The Lethal Politics Of The Opt-Out Public Option

I'm surprised this hasn't gotten more attention. But imagine for a moment that the opt-out public option passes and becomes law (I give it a 65 percent chance at this point). Then what happens? Well, there has to be a debate in every state in which Republicans, where they hold a majority or the governorship, will presumably decide to deny their own voters the option to get a cheaper health insurance plan. When others in other states can get such a plan, will there not be pressure on the GOP to help their own base? Won't Bill O'Reilly's gaffe – when he said what he believed rather than what Roger Ailes wants him to say – be salient? Won't many people – many Republican voters – actually ask: why can't I have what they're having?

This is why this is lethal. The argument against new entitlements requires a macro-level perspective. You have to argue that although a measure may help an individual get something she wouldn't otherwise have – like adequate and reliable, if barebones, health insurance – its consequences will come back to haunt us all. You have to remind people that money doesn't grow on trees, that in the long run, more government involvement might hurt healthcare excellence, that you just need to rely on the wonderful private sector to deliver the goods in a more market-friendly way. This is always a tough sell because it requires voters to put abstract concerns over practical short-term gains. It's why conservatism always has a tough time in welfare state democracies.

But with health insurance companies, the GOP may not only have to make this argument, they may be onto a defining alliance they really, really don't want or need.

Imagine Republicans in state legislatures having to argue and posture against an affordable health insurance plan for the folks, as O'Reilly calls them, while evil liberals provide it elsewhere. Now, of course, if the public option is a disaster in some states, this argument could work in the long run. But in the short run? It's political nightmare for the right as it is currently constituted. In fact, I can see a public option becoming the equivalent of Medicare in the public psyche if it works as it should. Try running against Medicare.

The genius of the opt-out is that it coopts the states' rights argument (just as ending the prohibition on marijuana does); it has the potential to make "liberalism' popular again; it has easily demonized opponents – the health insurance industry; and it forces Republicans not to rail against socialism in the abstract but to oppose actual benefits for the working poor in reality.

It's a brutal, Chicago-style political maneuver. And Obama appears not to be the person really pushing it.

Meep, meep.

Albert Wept

Baby Einstein Co. – maker of “educational” DVDs whose founder was officially recognized by George W. Bush during his 2007 State Of The Union address – issues a massive recall spurred by charges of false advertising. Nell Minow explains:

The academic studies show that what infants learn from watching a family member once takes them four times as long to absorb in a DVD. And the very act of watching a DVD with the pulsing refresh rate of the screen can be at the same time soporific and stimulating, making it more difficult for them to get restful sleep. The only thing they learn from these DVDs is how to watch television.

Making Him Do It

The public option is still alive for a variety of reasons, as Nate Silver has pointed out. The Dish always thought it was viable because the logic behind it makes sense to anyone with a brain, because it would save money, because it is actually popular and because the opt-out option squares the circle nicely.

But Nate is also correct about this:

None of this would have been possible without the yeoman effort of a relatively small number of bloggers and activists — they know who they are — who were tired of taking "no" for an answer. They wanted this fight because of the paradigm-shifting implications it could have for how business gets done in the Democratic Party. And, somewhat to my surprise, they're having it.

What part of "we" in "we are the ones we've been waiting for?" does the Beltway still not understand? And why has it taken this long for the Obamaphiles to tackle their leader. He's the follower, for Pete's sake, remember? The people who voted for him are the leaders.

So make him.

The Levi Forecast

A "90 percent" chance of Johnston. Money quote:

In other Levi news, Jones said that he's working on a book about the Palin family. "There's a whole lot of material he hasn't talked about because he wanted to protect the family," Jones says. But since the Palin's have been talking trash about him, Levi isn't keeping quiet anymore. "The gloves are off, everything is going to come out." While we don't want a body double for this shoot, we certainly hope there is going to be a ghostwriter for this book!