428 Districts

Nate Silver believes that the GOP is reprising Howard Dean's 50 state strategy:

According to research by Derek Willis of The New York Times, the Republicans will nominate candidates in 428 Congressional districts this year, leaving only seven races — all in overwhelmingly Democratic areas, like the South Side of Chicago — uncontested. This contrasts sharply with 2006, when Republicans left the Democrats unchallenged in 45 districts, or 2008, when they failed to nominate a candidate in 42 races.

The Democrats, for their part, are not doing badly: They will have a candidate  on the ballot in 412 districts –  all but 23 — which is better than their recent historical average. Still, this is a step down from 2008, when they left just 14 seats uncontested.

He gives Republicans about a 25 percent chance of taking over the Senate.