Daniel Kahneman deflates expectations:
Education is an important determinant of income — one of the most important — but it is less important than most people think. If everyone had the same education, the inequality of income would be reduced by less than 10%. When you focus on education you neglect the myriad other factors that determine income. The differences of income among people who have the same education are huge.
(Hat tip: Cowen)
A study finds that black bears have "killed only 63 people in the United States and Canada over the last 109 years." Erica Grieder applies this statistic to the immigration debate:
Like bears, undocumented immigrants have been the culprits in some high-profile attacks, leading to a widespread view that they are, as a group, unusually dangerous. However, in both cases, an assessment of the danger is complicated by the context.
Although bear attacks have increased in recent years, it's not because they've grown bloodthirsty; it's due to increased interaction between humans and bears in remote stretches of Canada and Alaska. With undocumented immigrants, the crime rate has to be considered alongside their numbers in the population, the circumstances correlated with being an undocumented immigrant, and the level of enforcement directed at this group compared to any other.
Peter Moskos furnishes evidence that illegal immigrants have lower crime rates.
A reader writes:
While hockey has a long history of beardage, I'd like to throw MLS goalie Matt Pickens into the mix. Pickens does not shave during the soccer season and his beard has become iconic with fans (see "Magic Beard" banner) and has earned the chant "Jesus Saves" for his work. During the playoffs last year, he was able to get most of the Colorado Rapids players to go bearded as well.
Another returns to hockey:
The gold standard in playoff beards was set by Lanny McDonald. In fact, growing a playoff beard is sometimes referred to as "getting on your Lanny McDonald." Here's an epic shot of him.
Another:
And Scott Niedermayer … look at that grey!!!
(Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
Wasilla High School's symphonic jazz choir had been prepping for some time mastering "Bohemian Rhapsody" for their commencement ceremony. Then some parents found out it was written by a homosexual – and it was nixed. After an uproar from the students, it was reinstated – but the section including the line about killing a man was removed. Joe McGinniss has some fun with the story here.
Steve Kornacki says not necessarily:
A deep-held principle — that a healthcare mandate is a freedom-killing violation of our nation's sacred founding values — has emerged from a fundamentally emotional reaction to a Democratic president. Putting the true believers (i.e., conservatives who hated mandates even before 2009) aside, most of the passionate arguments Republicans have offered against "ObamaCare" represent either a product of this emotional reaction or an effort to cater to it.
How does this help Romney? It means that his cover story on healthcare doesn't necessarily have to be rational for GOP elites to ultimately rally around him and to help sell him to rank-and-file GOP voters.
Larison believes it's Huntsman:
There’s no question that mainstream media outlets are pushing Huntsman as openly and desperately as they once promoted McCain in 1999-2000. When I was reading the latest glowing Huntsman profile in Time, it occurred to me that Huntsman is the politician mainstream journalists hoped and wanted Romney to be, and some of them are doing their best to present Huntsman that way.
Alan Simpson got pummeled for his apparent ignorance of longevity numbers as they apply to Social Security. Charles Blahous defends Simpson and points out that he was likely citing a different longevity measure. Blahous's view of the retirement age more generally:
Life expectancy growth even at age 65 (the measure emphasized in the HuffPo piece) has far surpassed the rise in Social Security’s eligibility age, supporting the commission view rather than its critics’. Through today, Social Security’s Normal Retirement Age (66) has risen by only one year since 1940. According to the SSA figures cited, life expectancy at age 65 has simultaneously grown by over five years, both for men and for women. By the time the [Normal Retirement Age] reaches 67 under current law, life expectancy at 65 will have grown by over six years. By the distant time Simpson-Bowles would increase the NRA to 69 (four years total increase since 1940), life expectancy at age 65 will have grown by over nine years.
Aaron Carroll remains against raising the retirment age because raising it would be regressive, as the above chart illustrates:
What you’re looking at is the life expectancy of a male who reached age 65 in 1977-2007. The blue line is the top 50% of earners; the green line is the bottom 50%. While the top half of earners have seen an increase of their life expectancy at 65 rise about 5 years over these three decades, the bottom half saw their life expectancy at 65 rise barely a year.
Think about that when advocating for an increase in the age of eligibility because “everyone” has seen their life expectancy increase.
Today on the Dish, McCain corrected the record on torture, and asked General Mukasey to do the same. Ackerman summoned a final review by the 9/11 Commission, and the Taliban tweeted. Conor Friedersdorf demanded Congress authorize or end the war in Libya, and Andrew stayed dismayed by the imperial implications. Qaddafi may be shacking up in the journalists' hotel, cutting aid to Pakistan is complicated, and violent standoffs continued in Yemen. Uganda continued to persecute its gays, and the internet made Tanzanians cynical about elections.
Andrew went another round with Josh Green on Palin's threat level, but maintained she's the same as she ever was. We calmed the masses about Common, remembered his incendiary Gap ad, and were calmed by the fact that Palin knows the words to 'Rapper's Delight'. Ezra Klein flipped through Romney's new healthcare proposal, the WSJ attacked, and unlike Obamacare, Romneycare does cover abortions. Newt's mother revealed his penchant for name-calling, and Weigel reviewed Newt, the Amazon book reviewer. Republicans and Dems found some green common ground, Drum fixed social security, and Annie Lowrey advocated for skilled immigrant labor. The housing market still struggled, Kevin Drum redrew the tax chart, and readers defended chicken shit in the tax code. Readers defended the IUD and vowed not to sit while reading the Dish, and Tom Friedman harassed more street vendors.
Mural of the day here, hathos alert here, chart of the day here, Malkin award here, powerful ad watch here, beardage watch here, quote for the day here, VFYW here, MHB here, and FOTD here.
–Z.P.
A reader writes:
I had to laugh at your post on the subject, since I've been working since about 6 am on my computer at a tread-desk. So I'm walking and typing this and will shortly return to work, never for a moment sitting. (I've covered about 6 miles so far today and will probably get about 14 in total.) After I got a tread-desk, one of my daughters liked it so much she asked for one, so I got her one for Christmas. There are things that I can't do while walking (e.g. free-hand writing), but typing, programming, etc. are all just about as easy walking as they are sitting.
And a point that may be of particular interest to you: I originally got one because of my apnea. Even though I religiously use a CPAP machine, sitting still was often a recipe for falling asleep, which is not good for productivity. It's tough to fall asleep while walking!
Another reader sends the above segment on tread-desks from a few years ago. Another writes:
I was very glad to see you post that graphic, because, as a licensed massage therapist, I happen to know it's true! All during my massage training my instructor kept telling us, "We are a nation of hip problems, because we sit far too much for the way our bodies were made." In the 10 years that I have been in private practice, I have found this to be totally true; I'm constantly working on problems in my clients that are hip related.
It has made me realize all too bluntly that we as a society keep mechanizing ourselves to death. We keep making it easier to sit – not only in our cars and at work, or on our couches (remote in hand) watching TV, but on things like riding lawnmowers (not just for huge expanses of green, but on postage-sized city lots!), etc. So, thanks again for that terrific graphic. I think I am going to blow it up and post it in my massage studio.
Greg Sargent ties to understand Romney's healthcare strategy:
[H]e’s putting himself out there to take a beating on the issue now, in hopes that he can talk it to death and get past it. “That’s the strategic play here,” one GOP operative tells me. “He knows he’s going to get killed on health care. He’d rather get killed today than a month before the Iowa caucuses or the New Hampshire primary.” It’s his only hope.
The Dish 