Chris Cillizza thinks our electoral system gives Obama an edge:
Obama won three states — Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia — that no Democrat had carried at the presidential level in at least two decades, and he scored victories in six other states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico and Ohio) that George W. Bush had won in 2004. …with the exception of Indiana and its 11 electoral votes, Obama is very much in the game in those states. In several, even Republicans acknowledge that he is favored.
Jonathan Bernstein rolls his eyes:
States are not units which move independently of each other. They just aren't. Instead, when Obama is more or less popular, or generically whenever one party becomes more popular, it produces more-or-less equal shifts across all states. If Obama wins by five points nationally, he's going to win Pennsylvania and Michigan and Iowa and Wisconsin and, basically, the Al Gore states from 2000 plus a few others, and he'll win easily. If he loses by five points nationally, he's going to win what John Kerry won in 2004 minus a few states, and he'll lose easily. He's not going to run the same in most states but surge or drop dramatically in a handful of battleground states. It doesn't work like that.
