Will The Debt Trigger Go Off?

The super committee doesn't sound like it's making progress. If a deal isn't reached, Ezra Klein doubts Congress will defuse the trigger mechanism:

The trigger is law. It is part of the Budget Control Act of 2011, which passed in August. To change the law, the two parties would need to agree on how to change it. So it’s not enough for Republicans to say they would like to see the trigger “reconfigured.” It’s not even enough for Democrats to also want to see the trigger reconfigured. The two parties have to agree on how to reconfigure it. And that would be difficult for the same reason that passing a deficit-reduction deal is difficult.

Kevin Drum differs:

[H]ow many Democrats will be willing to stick to their guns and allow the Pentagon cuts to go forward if the supercommittee fails? Not enough, probably, and Republicans know it. What's more, they've always known it, which is why they've never taken the trigger seriously. Reneging on this summer's deal was baked into the cake from the day it was proposed.

What Should A Digital Book Cost?

The new Kindle Lending Library, which offers many best-selling books for free on loan to Amazon Prime members, has thrown a wrench into the publishing industry's status quo:

"[I]t's awful for publishers and authors," writes Joe Wikert  plainly at O'Reilly Media. Why? Because a flat fee to a publisher isn't compensating authors for their individual work. He'd prefer to see a pay-for-performance model — which some publishers, or some specific books, are apparently getting.

Virginia Postrel thinks the future is in bundling:

Every book is indeed different, but that’s no excuse for charging more than the market will bear. And, at least for digital copies, there’s a way around the “every book is different” problem: bundling a lot of books together, charging a flat fee, and letting customers use whichever ones they like best.

“Breaking The Internet”

That's how multiple sources are describing the Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA), a new law that gets its first hearing today. Trevor Trim explains one unintended consequence:

Under SOPA, private companies will be able to force payment processors to shut down payments to websites by merely claiming the site “engages in, enables or facilitates” infringement.  This broad provision could target websites behind important Internet projects such as Tor, the anonymity network that has been vital for protecting activists from government surveillance in Tunisia and Egypt. While Tor is designed to promote free expression, privacy, and human rights (and has had an amazing impact on the Arab Spring), it can unfortunately also be used to mask one’s IP address when downloading copyrighted content, such as music. Corporations concerned about users illegally downloading music could use SOPA to force Visa and Mastercard to cut off donations to Torproject.org—despite Tor’s aim to facilitate human rights activism, not piracy.

Link via the Center for Democracy and Technology, which keeps an up-to-date, comprehensive roundup of arguments against SOPA. David Post thinks it plain won't work:

It’s too easy to circumvent — anyone who understands the technology will agree with that. Sure, it will ensnare many unlawful actors. But at Internet scale, ensnaring some of the bad guys does not and cannot appreciably affect the conduct in question. Think of it this way: If there are 10 bad guys out there, and you’ve got a way to catch, say, 5 of them, that’s usually a pretty good scheme. We’ll have 5 fewer bad guys, and who knows, maybe just by probabilistic chance you’ll catch all 10; after all, if you’re 50 percent likely on average to catch each bad guy, it’s unlikely but by no means impossible that you’ll get ‘em all.

But if there are 10 million bad guys and you get rid of half of them, there are still 5 million bad guys out there. And, with intellectual property, 5 million bad guys can do precisely as much “damage” to your intellectual property as 10 million.

Peter Suderman piles on.

A Ban On Cigarettes?

6147184811_67ecc43e6b_b

Peter Singer demands one:

If we want to save lives and improve health, nothing else that is readily achievable would be as effective as an international ban on the sale of cigarettes. (Eliminating extreme poverty worldwide is about the only strategy that might save more lives, but it would be far more difficult to accomplish.)

Crazy talk. Can you imagine the costs of prohibition? Let alone the power of a government dedicated not to providing liberty but to extending life, regardless of liberty? I hate cigarettes, partly by growing up an asthmatic in a house where cigarette smoke hung always in the air. But I find the attempt to ban them, stigmatize them and ostracize smokers to be creepily authoritarian. Sure, keep them out of the public. But if you want to die young because you love tobacco, who on earth am I to tell you otherwise?

(Image of Will Coles' "etc, etc" by JAM Project.)

Gingrich’s $300,000 $1.6 Million From Freddie Mac

Bloomberg investigates and finds that Gingrich was paid much more by Freddie Mac than previously reported. Gingrich says that he’s bound by a confidentiality agreement, but is "very happy to offer people strategic advice if they come and ask my advice." Jennifer Rubin implores him to come clean: 

Freddie Mac isn’t commenting on the record and isn’t releasing documents to establish Gingrich’s role. This is inexcusable. To the extent there is a confidentiality agreement (why would Freddie demand his work be a secret?), Freddie and Gingrich can waive it. Gingrich is running for president, telling an improbable tale (he alone among a flock of hired guns wasn’t engaged in influence peddling?) and refusing to provide voters with material needed to assess his credibility. This is precisely the Gingrich so many Republicans recall — self-important, truth-shading and continually on the make to feather his own nest. 

Friedersdorf thinks he should return the money. Benjy Sarlin reports that Gingrich demanded an investigation into policymakers with ties to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2008. Ed Morrissey assesses the damage:

It’s possible that Gingrich supported Congressional pressure on Fannie and Freddie to expand home ownership in 1999-2002 during his first round with Freddie, and then changed his mind during his second consultation period. … Even so, the fact that Gingrich had such a lengthy consulting relationship with such a toxic organization might be enough to turn off Republican voters.  The nexus of power and big business is one of the themes of the Tea Party’s efforts at reform, and the ability of the powerful to move into consulting relationships with big-money players like Freddie Mac is one of the symptoms of the problem.  

Today In Syria: The First Shots In A Civil War?

The biggest news from the past two days is an attack by the Free Syrian Army (FSA) on several military installations just outside Damascus, the most significant sign to date of the FSA becoming a serious rebel group. Walter Russell Mead thinks this is great news:

[S]igns that the unorganized, popular unrest is mutating from political actions directed against the government into sectarian violence is going to make a lot of rich and powerful Syrians extremely nervous.  The Assad family is accepted because it brings stability; if it is driving the country into anarchy and meltdown, many powerful Syrian interests who have stuck with the Assads this long will begin to think about change.

Michael Weiss sees Syria's Kurds as a key lever point. The NYT hosts an in-depth discussion as to why Turkey, who's sheltering some FSA soldiers, has broken so hard against Assad of late. Assad's people, for their part, are attacking the embassies of Arab League states in Damascus. Speaking of embassies, Damascene protestors gather behind the Iranian one:

Here, Fadwa Sulaiman, a prominent Syrian actress and one of the Guardian's four Syrian "bloggers to follow," leads a demonstration in chants of "no Salafis, no Brotherhood, the Syrians want freedom:"

Finally, a difficult video of how torture works – a group of activists are beaten and whipped with belts (a common regime form of torture) until they chant slogans against an "enemy" of Assad:

What Is God?

A reader writes:

In your post this morning, "Why an atheist converts," you wrote:

But this is God. It is certainly what I understand as God. Nonbelievers need to let go of anthropocentric, grey-bearded beings in the sky for God itself, the highest consciousness of all, and the force that gives this staggering beauty, available to us all, love. 

1. The fact is, the majority of believers believe in an "anthropocentric, grey-bearded being."  They believe in heaven, hell, angels, demons, and all the other clap-trap that goes along with these bronze-age era beliefs.  You can't simply dismiss these trappings with a wave of the verbal hand.  What you're doing here is just inventing your own religion.  "Andrew Sullivanism" if you will.  You're doing the same thing Joseph Smith did.  Hell, you're doing the same thing early Christians did when they took Judaism and made it more palatable for Jews who were perhaps a bit less orthodox-minded.  You like the idea of religion, you just don't like the choices you've been given.  And so you invent your own.

2.  Attributing complexity and beauty to a God, in whatever form you care to give it, is still simple wishful thinking.  We don't need a God to explain beauty; we have science for that.  It does a better job than God ever did.  And to me at least, that's a comforting thought.  And for those who would say that science is simply the implement that God chooses to implement creation, I would say please: show me your evidence.  There is none, it is (again) just wishful thinking.

The idea that science can explain beauty is a non-sequitur. They belong to different categories of thought. Science can no more explain the wonder of a Van Gogh masterpiece than Van Gogh could have explained the chemical composition of the paint, or need to. As for the notion that it is heresy that God is not a grey-bearded figure in the sky, I beg to differ. It is in fact heretical to conceive of God in such an anthropocentric manner. Jesus referred to God as his Father and ours. But that is obviously a metaphor – Jesus' human father was Joseph. In fact, Jesus really called God dad, an intimacy that, to me, reflects exactly the tone of voice that has at times entered my life to remind me I am loved and cared for.

I am not inventing a new religion, like Joseph Smith. I am explaining what I see as the truths of Christianity in language that is not encrusted with myth and irrational literalism, a Christianity that incorporates the unprecedented amount of knowledge that mankind has now acquired about the universe, history, science and indeed the flawed human origins of the Scriptures themselves. To say that God is everywhere, as orthodox Christians believe, is precisely to say he is not some grey-bearded man in the sky. God is neither male nor female. God is hidden. God cannot be grasped by our human minds. But God is the force behind everything, and good. What my reader expressed was this:

If the Universe is anything, it is proof that meaning can be found in the smallest of existence, from atoms to neutrinos and down beneath it.

But this is a religious move, a decision to attach meaning to the Universe, where science can find no meaning only fact and theory. For me, and those who are more mystically-inclined Christians, contemplation of this universe is contemplation of God, and Jesus was one human being who glimpsed this overwhelming truth – and its boundless miracle of love – more powerfully than anyone else in the West. That gave him a composure unlike any human being, a composure saturated with Godness. This is Incarnation.

Another reader:

This dodge is not worthy of you.  As I understand it, you believe in a God who was incarnated as a man, who died, and who miraculously rose from the dead in order to purge mankind of its tragic flaw.  That's not really the same thing as recognizing that there's such a thing as awe, or wonder, or love.

Not a God, God. And, yes, incarnated in the manner I describe above. My heresy – and I concede it – is in rejecting the traditional view of the atonement issue. For me, Jesus's death was not the downpayment on our salvation. He was the way, the truth and the life. His horrifying crucifixion was not some unique necessary sacrifice. It was a commonplace punishment in his time. What singled him out was the manner of his death, his refusal to stop it, his calm in embracing it, his forgiveness even of those who nailed him there, with that astonishing sentence, "Father, forgive them. For they know not what they do."

I don't read that as an affronted "they don't know they are executing the Godhead himself". I read it as "they are so consumed with fear and the world and violence and power that they require forgiveness and mercy, not condemnation". It is this very composure, this sadness born of indescribable empathy, this inner calm and stillness, that convinces me of Jesus' saturation with the Godhead. He was not the human equivalent of an animal sacrifice; he was the light of the world, showing us by his example how we can be happy and at peace and in love with one another and God itself. Another:

If that is your god, why does such a god need a Church? And why does your Church say something quite different about the nature of its god? It's not atheists who describe a god that creates the universe, and heaven and hell, and sends his son to die and descend to hell and be resurrected, to then judge all men after their deaths. That's your Church. And its creed. And that story has nothing to do with the "this" you deify above. Atheists didn't invent the god who parted the seas for Moses, who saved Daniel from the furnace, who commanded Abraham to sacrifice his son, who incarnated himself into Jesus, who raised Lazarus from the dead, and who was himself resurrected. Do you hold it all is just metaphor? ALL? If so, what makes you more Christian than pagan? Odin coming down as a blind beggar is pretty good metaphor, also.

There's a conflation here between the often mythical stories told in the Old Testament and the parables and journeys and Passion of the New. I believe that everything I have said is in the Gospels and in the Creed. But what "heaven" and "hell" actually are; what the resurrection truly was (was Jesus physically restored as in life? disguised in others, as at Emaeus? a phantasm? all these versions are in the Gospels and the Acts); what miracles were … these are mysteries. If you want to call that a dodge, go ahead. But if you believe, as I do, that the human mind is inherently incapable of grasping the reality of the highest consciousness except through acceptance of mystery, then it is not a dodge. Yet another:

First, when you say “this is God,” that's fine as a personal statement of belief, but not fine for Roman Catholic like yourself. Catholics recite the Nicene Creed at each mass. There is simply no way to reconcile the words of that ancient statement of belief with your essentially pantheist/panentheist understanding of some Great Organizing Principle (God, if you prefer).

Really? Go read the Nicene Creed. Then try to understand it. You can do so with a nineteenth century literalism; or you can do so in manifold ways that have varied throughout the centuries. They are flawed human words trying to express the inexpressible; language to convey the ineffable. And I have no pantheism here. I believe in one God, in three forms. As a modern person, I also have available truths and insights that others before me did not. It is my duty as a Christian not to parrot old cliches or fear-ridden orthodoxies but to try and make it all make spiritual sense and not violate logic or what my eyes and mind and soul experience. And it is not an argument to say that most Christians don't think this way, therefore it is wrong. Throughout the ages, Christians have challenged their own hierarchy in trying to understand mysteries that are subject to various interpretations. The argument against my position must be: what is there in these texts and these traditions that contradicts Tillich's God as the "ground of all being"?  A final reader is less harsh:

So, in asking us to get over the "anthropocentric, grey-bearded beings in the sky", you seem to postulate that we can all agree that the wonders of the cosmos, the miracles of humanity and of love, and the fundamental connection of all living things is "God". Presumably, then, this God can be accessed in any number of ways — either through the revelations/stories/belief structures of organized religion of every kind, or through a fundamental appreciation for the revelations of science in the secular mindset.  You seem to further imply that regardless of how we access it, we are speaking about the same fundamental thing, a shared experience of the mystery at the center of existence.

If so, then the primary argument is not over spirituality or "whether there is a God", but between religions of various flavors and between religion in general vs. science.  In other words, we are squabbling over details (the filters through which each individual uniquely chooses to access and interpret the central mystery) and missing the central point that we are all really after the same fundamental truths.

This is wonderful — I couldn't agree more.  With that said, I can't help but comment that the "spiritual relativism" described above is basically the atheistic worldview.

No it isn't. Because what Christians believe is that this force is caritas. That the universe loves us. That move is Jesus'. That move requires revelation in the face of all the arguments of theodicy. And that is my faith: Deus Caritas Est. And that is so heretical for a Catholic that it was the title of this Pope's first encyclical.