Month: November 2011

Robin Wright wants us to open our minds to the possibility of a democratic Islamism:

Over the next decade, the most dynamic debate will be among the diverse Islamists, not between Islamist and secular parties. These political tensions will play out as they vie to define Islam's role in new constitutions — and then implement it in daily life.

Nathan Brown has thoughts as to how the West can contribute to the development of strong democratic institutions in the new Arab states (mostly: do nothing).

Dave Hoffman fears that pumpkin hurling technology has stopped advancing:

It’s depressing to think that after only 20 years, the technology to create an air cannon that will throw a pumpkin over a mile has already reached its apparent apogee.  At this point, we might predict that rather than rewarding skill, the Punkin Chunkin competition really will turn on luck — puffs of wind, pumpkin skin viscosity, humidity, the passing pigeon’s path.  Nevertheless, we’ll probably come to believe that the winners in the pumpkin chunkin competition are virtuous and the losers defective, and that the results reflect some kind of fair & stable & natural ordering.  That view would be wrong.

Sam Harris wants everyone to be prepared to deal with violent, and potentially violent, situations. The reason he urges readiness:

[H]ere are the numbers: In 2010, there were 403.6 violent crimes per 100,000 persons in the United States. (The good news: This is an overall decrease of 13.4 percent from the level in 2001.) Thus, the average American has a 1 in 250 chance of being robbed, assaulted, raped, or murdered each year. Actually, the chance is probably greater than this, because we know that certain crimes, such as assault and rape, are underreported.

Of course, your risks vary depending on who you are and where you live. In Compton, one of the more dangerous parts of Los Angeles, your chances of experiencing violent crime in 2010 were 1 in 71; if you lived in Beverly Hills they were 1 in 458. Still, even in good neighborhoods, the likelihood of being attacked is hardly remote.  In the comparative safety of Beverly Hills, assuming the crime rate stays constant, the probability that you will be robbed, assaulted, raped or murdered at some point over the next 30 years is 1 in 16. (The average risk in the U.S. is 1 in 9; in Compton it’s better than 1 in 3.) Again, these statistics surely paint too rosy a picture, because many crimes go unreported. 

Kawaguchiko, Japan, 6.35 am

The Economist claims a world without lying would "would lead to disaster, for lying is at the heart of civilisation." Robin Hanson dissents:

Good lie detector tech might just bring us back to forager levels of social transparency. Clever gadgets which can read our micro expressions or subtle features of our tone of voice may just tell us the sorts of things that foragers could see because they studied the same few dozen folks their entire lives, and gossiped endlessly about their behavior and (poker-like) tells. For those of us now used to farmer and industry levels of social opacity, this transparency might take some getting used to. But it is likely well within the range of human adaptability.

A wristband and iPhone app help you monitor your health:

Scott Adams expects more advances in this direction:

I predict that health monitoring will be the next substantial phase of cyborg evolution. I think we'll have embedded chips to continuously monitor our blood for sugar levels, cholesterol, vitamins, minerals, salt, specific diseases, and more. I think we'll also have monitors on our bodies to tell us when our brains are at their peak levels (for thinking tasks) and when our bodies are most energetic (for exercise). Perhaps our monitors will tell us when to eat and what to eat. Monitors might tell us when we are hydrated, when we have enough fiber in our diets, and when we need more sleep. You can imagine a long list of what the monitors might tell us. The embedded monitors might be powered by your body chemistry and communicate with your smartphone when it's near.

Noah Millman compares the Euro crisis to the Iraq War and the housing bubble. He thinks each crisis was the result of insecure leaders:

Larison thinks that ideological thinking is what causes a refusal to accept threatening facts. I think that has the arrow of causation backwards: threatening facts are what prompt a turn to ideological thinking as a way of getting said facts out of the mental frame. And it is an insecure mind – insecure of its own judgment, or its own expertise, or its own authority, or what-have-you – for whom facts are threatening things.

Today on the Dish, Andrew live-blogged the Michigan debate and we collected reax here (quote for the night here). The GOP is a party in free-fall that also doesn't understand that it is, voters pushed back against Tea Party overreach, and the Cain campaign got more chaotic and reckless. Gingrich stands to benefit, there's mounting evidence that Cain is a liar, and the Clarence Thomas narrative won't work. The evangelical soul is preoccupied with "redemptive utopianism," Romney would be completely beholden to the worst instincts of the Republican base as president, and Huntsman may get a second look. We revisited mandatory voting, Millman anticipated that Obama would be re-elected based on "weak but improving" economic fundamentals, and we wondered if the Fed could get more aggressive. In our video feature, Andrew explained that the Democrats are useless, and he addressed the horrors at Penn State. 

The Syrian rebellion forged on, the brutality of Assad seems to know no bounds, and it's too soon to panic over Al Qaeda in Libya. Europe has a leadership problem, Italy has a problem with good governance, and according to Barclays, it's also mathematically beyond the point of no return. Jackson Diehl issued a statement on behalf of Netanyahu in the Washington Post, Bibi is a "piece of work," and China is decelerating. 

Binge-eating is about powerlessness, "party rock" is not really about rock music, and parenting is self-expanding. Douthat relished the "devastating near-miss" in sports, most people go to college for personal fulfillment, and our social norms and instincts are not scaling at the rate of communication. A reporter agreed to be circumcised with bamboo sticks in exchange for an interview, daylight savings is bad for your health, and if you gay, you gay. 

Christianist watch here, President Obama's Dungeons and Dragons Character Sheet here, VFYW here, FOTD here, MHB here, and handstand peeing dog here. 

— M.A.

(Photo of student-led riots at Penn State sparked by news that Joe Paterno was fired tonight for his involvement in the school's sex abuse scandal. Follow @DailyCollegian for up-to-the-minute updates.)

 

Rich Lowry:

That might be the most uncomfortable moment I’ve ever witnessed in presidential politics.

Larry Sabato:

To my memory, Perry's forgetfulness is the most devastating moment of any modern primary debate.

Allahpundit:

[Perry is] down to 4.9 percent now on InTrade; before the debate he was at 9.3 percent. Remember two months ago when he was going to be the guy who saved us from Romney? 

Adam Sorensen:

Watching Rick Perry fail to recall the third part of his own answer in tonight’s debate was like watching a thoroughbred get euthanized on the track. It was shocking, grisly and impossible to look away. 

Alex Massie:

You can stick a fork in [Perry], he's done.

Joe Gandelman:

I wonder: Will Rick Perry remember which office he’s running for? Impressions: I can’t see Cain losing any ground with this debate (even if it increasingly seems like a fitting campaign slogan for Cain would be “The White House or bust.”) Romney holding firm. Gingrich waiting in wings as Anti-Perry understudy for Cain.

Aaron Carroll:

Many of the answers the candidates gave on health care reform already exist. We have HSAs. States can apply for Medicaid waivers and experiment right now. Medicare advantage has been around for years. Tort reform has been tried, and it doesn’t reduce costs. So I want real answers. I’m as frustrated as the candidates by the 30-second format on this issue. But nothing is preventing them from speaking at other times or putting out a comprehensive and detailed plan. Why don’t they?

Matt Yglesias:

[N]obody should be allowed to get away with hazily waving at whole cabinet departments without talking about what, exactly, it is they’re saying should happen. My strong suspicion is that Perry actually has no idea what the scope of the Energy department’s defense-related activities are and is just running his mouth off.

Adam Serwer:

While having the majority of women you've met not accuse you of sexual harassment might seem like a low bar for a human being, let alone a presidential candidate, the debate audience cheered enthusiastically.

 Ewen MacAskill:

Cowardice on the part of the journalists on the debate panel. Having raised the sexual harassment issues with Cain, they backed off after being booed by the audience. Having raised it, they should have seen it through, putting it to at least a few of the candidates.

Daniel Foster:

It should not be lost that Herman Cain called a person who could plausibly be third in line to his presidency “Princess Nancy.” I don’t care for Nancy Pelosi. I might even, in a stroke of inspiration, call her “Princess.” But I am not running for president.

Ace of Spades:

 I'd like to know if people really think non-super-partisan Americans will be similarly willing to overlook the fact that Cain doesn't seem to know anything.

Will Wilkinson:

Romney continues to finish better than second while somehow now exactly "winning". Herman Cain's failure to show any development in the breadth and depth of his ideas is making it increasingly clear that he's little more than a genial bullshitter. Huntsman again had several opportunities to really stand out by articulating an intellectually credible moderate position, but he lacks killer instinct. He can't rhetorically close the deal even when he's won the point.  Perry's senior moment seemed like accidental seppuku. 

Joseph Lawler:

Romney was on point, as usual. Tonight he faced only the weakest and most halfhearted criticisms of his record, including on health care. At one point he echoed Ron Paul's call for free-market, patient-centered health care — without drawing comment from any of the others. Maybe the others have just given up on attacking Romney on health care.

Taegan Goddard:

Mitt Romney prevailed in yet another GOP debate. He was the home team candidate on his home turf: the economy and jobs. He's comfortable on the stage and is at least a full notch above the other candidates.

"I learned three things in Zurich during the war. I wrote them down. Firstly, you're either a revolutionary or you're not, and if you're not you might as well be an artist as anything else. Secondly, if you can't be an artist, you might as well be a revolutionary. . . . I forget the third thing," – Henry Carr, in Tom Stoppard's play, so appropriately called "Travesties."