Month: September 2012

William Lawrence, a friend and colleague of Ambassador Chris Stevens, explains the complex nature of Libya's militias, arguing that "Libya's salvation depends on the knowledge that its armed groups are still much more likely to be making and keeping the peace than getting into mischief and mayhem":

The [post-revolution] conflicts were short-lived because local leaders, revolutionary brigades, and other civilians stepped into the breach and took on the responsibility of keeping Libya united. To be sure, the armed groups in Libya are creating as many problems as they are solving. But it would be wrong to see the vast majority of these forces as acting against the wishes of the state or the state generally in conflict with militias. The armed groups simply are the people, armed. And for the most part, nearly all armed groups are already authorized and encouraged to take part in the stabilization of the country, serving as auxiliary forces for a state that is not ready to defend itself, let alone Libya's vast territory.

When attacks occur, including the one that took Chris's life, local notables and armed groups voluntarily step in and physically keep the shooting parties apart. Sometimes they are in a position to pursue those who have perpetrated the catalyzing criminal acts. To make peace, these local leaders appeal to the higher ideals of Libyan identity and Islam, along with exerting social pressure and deploying traditional concepts of customary law. Volunteers, using whatever tools they have at their disposal, have stepped in where the government could not.

When jazz genius meets the Carpenters. This is Sharon Clark’s tribute to her mother’s favorite song, sung the day after her mother died. I know it’s longer than our usual MHBs but the moment and the music make it worth it:

More on Ms Clark here. She’s in New York City this week at the Metropolitan Room. Times and tickets here. I’ve seen her live. I have grown to love jazz more than I once did (Larkin was a catalyst, along with my friend, Chris Grasso, who plays piano above). Clark pushed me over the edge.

Touting a new study, Lisa Beyer advocates making it harder for parents to opt-out of vaccinating their kids:

In states that have easy requirements for [immunization] waivers — for instance, one parent merely signs a form — nonmedical exemptions grew on average by 13 percent yearly, to 3.3 percent of all students. In states that make it harder for parents — for example, by requiring a letter explaining the reason for opting out — the growth was slower (8 percent yearly) and the percentage of students significantly lower, 1.3 percent.

In what is shaping up to be the worst year for whooping cough in the U.S. since the 1970s — with 29,000 cases and 14 deaths reported so far — the study points to a sensible immunization policy. If vaccine waivers are tougher to get, some parents will forgo them out of convenience. Others will see the hurdles as a sign of how seriously society regards immunizations. Either way, more kids will get the vaccines they need for their own health, and that of their classmates.

John Sides takes a close look at the white working class vote:

In my experience, the white working class gets a ton of attention, especially when elections come around. It probably gets more attention that it deserves—particularly since its diversity means it’s that hardly a monolithic voting bloc and since there are lots of ways to build a winning electoral coalition in American politics with varying degrees of support from the white working class.

Weigel adds:

To win the election in a squeaker, Barack Obama needs to win around 39 percent of the white vote. But outside the South, if he's winning, he'll be basically tying Romney with whites or losing them by 2-5 points. He's the first Democrat to win national elections in the post-Dixiecrat era.

Drum charted the regional differences:

In the West, Midwest, and Northeast, the white working class vote is fairly evenly split. Romney is slightly ahead in the West and Northeast, while Obama is slightly ahead in the Midwest. It's only in the South that the white working class vote is overwhelmingly Republican, and this is what skews the national results, which show Romney ahead 48%-35%.

Tracy Clark-Flory rounds up the science-proven unhealthiness of stalking your ex from the Facebook bushes:

[A Study] by Tara C. Marshall, a psychology professor at Brunel University, found that “Facebook surveillance was associated with greater current distress over the breakup, more negative feelings, sexual desire, and longing for the ex-partner, and lower personal growth.” More surprisingly, those who stayed Facebook friends with their ex “reported less negative feelings, sexual desire, and longing for the former partner” — but they were “lower in personal growth.” Marshall suggests this may be because “unbidden exposure to the potentially banal status updates, comments, and photos of an ex-partner through remaining Facebook friends may have decreased any residual attraction to the ex-partner,” whereas defriended exes “remain shrouded in an alluring mystique.”

But lots of people do it:

If you’ve found it difficult to resist the temptation, you’re not alone. A study published last year found that more than 50 percent of respondents — all college students, mind you — reported having looked through an ex-partner’s Facebook photos in search of a snapshot of their new partner. It isn’t just surveillance, though: Around 30 percent admitted to having “posted poetry or music lyrics” in status updates “to taunt or hurt” an ex, as well as having updated their status “to make [an] ex-partner jealous.” (On a sweeter note, nearly 60 percent had posted poetry or music lyrics “to try and get back together.” No data on how well that works.)

Alexander Burns sees no other state "as daunting – or as alarming to other members of his party – as the state of Ohio":

This morning’s Washington Post poll found Obama leading Romney by 8 points in the Buckeye State. That’s on the high end of recent margins, but the trend is unambiguously in the president’s favor: Obama was up 5 in an Ohio Newspaper Organization poll, up 4 in a Purple Strategies poll, and up 7 in a Fox News poll and an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Poll. That’s all in the last two weeks.

Nate Cohn isn't expecting a Romney rebound:

[A] quick look at Romney’s favorability ratings in Ohio suggests that Romney’s chances of a comeback in the state are worse than Obama’s modest 4-point lead suggests. In post-DNC polling, Romney’s unfavorable ratings exceeded 49 percent in every poll of likely voters. On average, his favorability rating is underwater by an average of 7 points, 43-50, and that’s with the benefit of an outlying Rasmussen poll showing Romney’s favorables at 50 percent. 

Florida, another Romney must-win, doesn't look much better for him. Chart from TPM.

For the Republican who refuses to face reality, Pareene has the solution:

I present UnSkewedPolls.com, the best new website on the political Internet. UnSkewed Polls finally removes the "liberal media bias" from every single national opinion poll, and it turns out that "unskewing" them means "making it so that Romney is ahead by a lot." Rick Perry approves!

Kerry Howley wonders whether Obama or Romney would be tougher on undocumented immigrants:

The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency has expelled 1.5 million immigrants during Obama's tenure, far more than Bush managed in the same time frame. Obama claims he instructed ICE to prioritize criminals, and it’s true that some of the deported might be categorized as such. One criminal ICE went after is Juana Reyes, a mother of two charged with trespassing for the crime of selling tamales in a Walmart parking lot. She had been in the United States for 16 years before authorities arrested her for selling a cheap lunch Walmart employees reportedly enjoyed.

One can always find sympathetic anecdotes—perhaps Juana is an isolated case in a rising swell of homicidal Mexicans—but the conflation of violent and non-violent criminals is too politically convenient to ignore. The list of priority deportees includes women who call the police to report assault and people with traffic violations. 

In light of all this, ABC News asks “Who would deport more?” and spends a thousand words telling us that no one has a clue.

Jill Fitzsimmons sums up a recent study (pdf):

The Union of Concerned Scientists analyzed six months of Fox News coverage and found that 93% of representations of climate science were "misleading." These segments either broadly dismissed the scientific consensus that manmade climate change is occurring, or drowned out accurate information on climate science with misleading claims.