Month: September 2012

It's two-fold, really. The first is that its sample skews so relentlessly Republican it can mislead at times; the second that its results are often used very conveniently by the rightwing blogosphere to push back on difficult narratives. Like, er, that Obama has had a hell of a few weeks of gains, and is now leading solidly. So go to the polling table. Which one of these does not belong?

I'm not saying they rig anything. Or that they did not have a good record in the last election cycle. I just don't trust them enough – and the news cycle spin they always seem to be focused on – to include them in my poll of polls.

Collins, the dictionary publisher, is crowd-sourcing its next project. Jonathon Green is not pleased, since the dictionary "represents authority":

[T]he dictionary is not designed for second-guessing. If it is not intensively researched, edited, proofed and rendered as "true" as possible, why bother to consult it? Of course dictionaries are human inventions and subject to human failings. How not. Research continues and research means revision. All the better. But the days of Johnson's cracks about oats and Scotland are over and the aim is the disinterested assembly of material.

And if not? Then we have the Urban Dictionary. Every line a laff, but do we believe this farrago of misinformation, theorising, one-off terms and a level of "definition" based on a count of thumbs up and down?

Andrew Polsky fears that the constant encomiums from Romney and Obama will come back to haunt us:

Flattery and pain don’t mix well. After all, if we the people have been as dedicated and selfless as our leaders tell us we are, then we cannot possibly be responsible for the mess we’re in. And if we have been so virtuous, surely we should not be asked to pay (through reduced benefits, higher taxes, or both) to clean up the situation. … Flattery works as a political tool, but a public that has been told only of its goodness will not understand why it should be penalized for its virtue. When the American people wake up the morning after the great political seduction, they will have a nasty hangover.

Steven Strogatz explores the math that our bodies can teach us:

We all know that toddlers learn to count with their fingers and sometimes their toes. Those appendages are called "digits," and it’s no accident that the same word refers to the 10 symbols 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 in the decimal system. Our bodies are our first arithmetic teachers. But what is less widely known is that our bodies are also trying to teach us higher math, if only we’d let them. Look at a baby’s first hairdo.

The cowlick at the center of that cute little swirl is, in mathematical parlance, a "singularity," a point of confusion where the baby’s hair can’t seem to decide which way to grow. On the back of the cowlick the hair falls to the left; on the front it grows to the right; and on the sides it falls forward and backward. What makes a cowlick "singular" is that a variable (the hair’s direction) changes abruptly and discontinuously there.

(Photo by Christine Szeto)

The American people remember George W. Bush. And they're not as stupid as Rush Limbaugh tries to be. Bruce Bartlett looks at CNN's latest poll:

54 per cent of "likely voters" put primary blame on Mr Bush and the Republicans versus only 38 per cent who blame Mr Obama and the Democrats. Among registered voters, the disparity is even larger, with 57 per cent blaming Mr Bush and only 35 per cent Mr Obama.

Sargent has been on this case for quite a while:

[I]t's possible that the true undecided voters may not be concluding Obama failed and are merely disappointed that Obama has not been able to make the recovery go faster but find that understandable, given the severity of the crisis and the depth of our problems.

If they have downgraded their expectations as to what a president can do to speed the recovery, they may be less prone to opt in a knee jerk way for whatever alternative is on offer. They may be open to the argument that Romney doesn’t have the answers and that Obama’s approach — despite their disappointment — has at least as good or even a better a chance of working over the long haul. They may also broaden their choice, evaluating the candidates on a range of issues and on their sense of both men’s priorities, values, and understanding of the direction the country needs to take in the future. Previously, polls suggested that more voters were willing to give the benefit of the doubt to Romney as an economic alternative. The above polling suggests that may no longer be the case.

An estimated 380 billion images were taken last year, mostly via smartphones. Has it changed our visual sense? James Estrin moderates a debate:

A photograph is no longer predominantly a way of keeping a treasured family memory or even of learning about places or people that we would otherwise not encounter. It is now mainly a chintzy currency in a social interaction and a way of gazing even further into one’s navel.

Estrin considers the two possible effects on "serious" photography:

1. The flowering of photographers leads to millions of people who are thinking more visually and whom we may be able to entice to become an audience for documentary and photojournalistic images.

2. We are bombarded with so much visual stimuli via the Web and social media that it becomes almost impossible to rise above the flood of images. And if everyone likes everything, no one photograph is better than another.

As the election heats up, it's worth noting how the little cheats and rationalizations add up:

Keith Humphreys believes the marijuana market is dominated by commercial grade pot because it's "an inexpensive product for a price-sensitive population." He claims that legalized marijuana would make highly potent, high-grade marijuana cheap enough for almost everyone:

The cannabis-using population would experience a vast increase in average drug potency. Caulkins and colleagues estimate that in the past 15 years, average potency of marijuana in the U.S. has doubled. But after legalization, with the 80% commercial grade market share being almost completely supplanted by sinsemilla, average potency would roughly triple very rapidly.

This increase in exposure to highly potent cannabis is one of the mechanisms through which legalization would result in a higher prevalence of addiction (Some of the other mechanisms are discussed here). It at first seems reasonable to assume that experienced users would simply titrate their dose of higher-potency pot, making higher or lower doses equivalent from a biological viewpoint. But surprisingly, laboratory studies of experienced marijuana users show that they are in fact poor at judging the potency of cannabis.

Kleiman is more cautious. He points out that "actual distribution of potencies would depend both on unknowns about consumer tastes, market structure, and branding/marketing strategies and on policy details yet to be specified."

Today on the Dish, Andrew reflected on Obama's cool as captured in Michael Lewis' profile, called Romney out on his new views on the Cairo attacks, crunched the electoral college numbers and rhapsodized about the new Pet Shop Boys record. Ambinder's deconstruction of "provocative weakness" prompted Andrew to condemn Romney's atavistic foreign policy. Meanwhile, Andrew doubted Romney would have even Dubya's probity – let alone, as readers pointed out, that of Reagan and Bush Sr.

Blake Zeff observed how Obama outflanks his opponents on messaging, Romney jumbled his tax math and, as Alex Altman argued Romney could win the Middle East debate, Nate Cohn thought that debates are overhyped. A Mormon feminist then lent insight into Romney's view on women and election cheating caught up, and American's didn't want another war. In economic news, Greg Ip and others interpreted QE3, while Scott Sumner used his underdog blog for good. Jared Bernstein homed in on the growing income gap, renting homes grew more expensive than buying and the Bush-era housing bubble dogged the recovery. Catherine Rampell then called attention to how Obamacare is kicking in.

Beyond US borders, Peter Hessler explored why Egyptian authorities hesitate to defend foreigners, Juan Cole weighed in on the Egypt-as-ally debate and Millman challenged Frum on engaging the Muslim Brotherhood. Meanwhile, the anti-film protests spread, Beinart explained the Jerusalem-in-the-Dem-platform fracas, Aung San Suu Kyi faced new challenges, and China's population helped its ping-pong prowess.

In assorted commentary, Keith Humphries pondered marijuana potency post-legalization, Steven Poole equated neuroscience with self-help, Mark Silk claimed that family allegiance isn't always a good thing, and a reader ridiculed the notion of sexual compatibility. John Hodgman discussed working for The Daily Show, an app typeset history and Daniel Day Lewis owned Honest Abe. And while the apple-for-teacher tradition hailed from frontier days, Nicole Pasulka detailed the history of Hawaiian land-grabs. A coffee owl here, MHB here, VFYW here, and FOTD here.

The rest of the week after the jump:

By Alex Wong/Getty Images

Thursday on the Dish, Andrew explained the Romney campaign's Reagan delusion while exposing the GOP's implosion of integrity. He then cast Romney's FP as "Cheneyism on the cheap" and, a bit earlier, likened the candidate to a "Cheney with better hair and even fewer scruples." While calling for a Obama landslide to destroy Rove, Andrew also pointed out that Romney's numbers are in "free-fall."

Joe Klein ripped into Netanyahu, and while attacks roiled Yemen today, Obama said Egypt as neither an ally nor an enemy and Ackerman criticized the media for misrepresenting the Benghazi attack. In Sam Bacile discussion, Noah Schachtman named him a fraud, while John Herman found evidence that he might be a Coptic Christian. Then massively multi-player online roleplayers remembered Benghazi victim Sean Smith.

Then the Fed ponied up, while the blogosphere celebrated. Meanwhile, Andrew noted that Adelson is off-limits due to the anti-Semitism card, Mark Kleiman summed up Romney's brave guy act and Kerry Howley debunked the "apology tour" smear. Tomasky hoped for a return of Dem foreign policy dominance, Abby Rapaport revealed the GOP's secret and readers clarified "introvert." Meanwhile, Romney's welfare attack ads fizzled and Ambers noticed growing Obama enthusiasm from independents.

The Chinese soon-to-be president disappeared, Iraq proved a risky investment, and while the Chart of the Day plotted the decline of newspapers, Walter Kirn chafed against journalistic groupthink. Then John Hodgman addressed doomsday fear-mongering and readers flagged some liberal pap in the hookup culture debate.

Elizabeth Blair explored the extraordinary origins of "Strange Fruit," Ed Yong marveled at nucleotide mapping and as prison love faced hurdles, Ed Gimson lamented the end of gentlemen. Tech geeks gave the iPhone 5 mixed reviews, Derek Thompson examined the social media business and Navneet Alang pondered our digital self-image. FOTD here, MHB here, VFYW here and don't forget to ask Reihan anything!

By AFP/Getty Images

Wednesday on the Dish, after summing up the situation in Libya and Egypt, Andrew laid out his case for why Romney is unfit to govern, as Romney continued to lie unflinchingly. Larison then weighed in on Romney's recklessness, Nicholas Burns spoke out and the NYT mused on the possibility that the Libya attack was planned. Then as Fallows called Romney's statement the "3 a.m. test," Buzzfeed rounded up bipartisan reactions and Obama's numbers continued to climb. Kristol, meanwhile, doubled down, Jon Kyl offered up a rape analogy and Reince Priebus earned a Hewitt nomination.

Rosie Gray wondered if the "anti-Muslim movie" was real, while Goldblog defended Obama, found a Sam Bacile wingnut associate and, along with others, tried to nail Bacile down. Daniel McCarthy contextualized free speech, Mohamed El Dashan dreamed of a more reasonable response and Shadi Hamid reminded us of Libya's progress. While Christian Caryl noted the similarities between Libya and Egypt, signs looked bad for a Morsi apology and David Remnick responded to Netanyahu's grotesque meddling. Romney QOTD here, FOTD here and, for keeping track of all this, the handy Libya/Egypt thread here.

In other political news, Political Math kept Obama honest on jobs, the blogosphere speculated on the Fed's action and Obama released new ads. And while readers prevailed upon Andrew to change the Von Hoffman award name and Japan nanny-stated the obese, Orhan Pamuk imagined life after the Bosphorus and the Iranian rial declined. Meanwhile, Andrew was at peace with his bald pate, ASL-fluent readers offered perspective on a recent MHB and John Hodgman discussed the Apocalypse. And as McArdle defended her argument on college degrees, Kafka praised patience. MHB here, VFYW here, and Ask Reihan anything!

Hoboken, New Jersey, 6.57 am, looking towards Lower Manhattan

Tuesday on the Dish, Andrew reflected on newly excavated 9/11 attack intel – and what it implies about Romney's foreign policy. And while Mark Vanhoenacker asked whether the 9/11 memorial needed protecting, Reason complained about the cost of the Freedom Towers. A poem for Tuesday here, FOTD here, VFYW here and Tweet of the Day here.

Andrew then decried the GOP's stonewalling on taxes, argued for containing Iran and explained how Romney "sliming Obama personally could actually help the president."

Polls continued to show an Obama ascent, and as Millman wondered how Romney donors would respond to recent numbers, Hodgman discussed whose convention was better. While Dick Morris earned another Von Hoffman Award nomination, Matt Lewis pondered the recent conservative embrace of Bill Clinton and some liberal wingnuts Les Mis-ed their values.

Kevin Fallon revealed how Scott Van Duzer's life changed post-bear-hug, the ad war lulled for 9/11 and Seth Stevenson subjected himself to 45 hours of ads. Meanwhile, as Noah Millman and other showed there's more that meets the eye to the CTU strike, the blogosphere reacted to the issue.

In pot news, the Netherlands prepared to decide its weed policy, Ryan succumbed to etch-a-sketching on medical marijuana and the Snoop endorsement came down.

Patrick Walsh highlighted the difference between soldier and civilian gun background checks, Dan Ephron reported on the removal of Migron and after Megan McArdle questioned the value college degrees, Felix Salmon debunked some of her logic. Nate Silver praised meteorologists, Kraft bestrode the world and Pat Robertson advised a husband with an uppity wife.

While happy couples waited 182 days before having sex, readers sounded off on hookup culture and pushed back on Hanna Rosin's wage gap thesis. Muppets looked humanoid and antique repatriation had a downside. While Robert Provine put forth a theory on morning sneezing, football grew even more dangerous and Larry transitioned to Lana with support from family (plus the new Cloud Atlas trailer). News blooper MHB here, QOTD here and a sentimental VFYW contest here.

By Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Monday on the Dish, Andrew appreciated Obama's introversion and agreed with Beinart that Dubya is a "moaning skeleton in Romney's closet." After calling Romney's Obamacare positioning a "flip-flop that's also a lie," he then highlighted the impact, or lack thereof, of out gay servicemembers. Crunching the poll data, Andrew declared that Romney needs a game-changer. And as he called out a sudden dive in GOP support, Obama's number ticked up. Noah Millman battled Frum on Romney's hypothetical foreign policy, and Romney invoked God while backing Steve King. Jonathan Bernstein noted the Gipper's fibbing, Drezner thought foreign policy could hurt Romney and David Sessions decried Kerry's and Biden's blitheness on bloodshed.

Elsewhere in politics, as Ambinder sized up the race, Texas' purple future looked distant and Michael Grunwald discussed the stimulus that keeps on giving. Then a pizzamaker bear-hugged Obama, Romney's ad machine unleashed in Wisconsin and politicians fought for credit for Ohio's recovery. Meanwhile, Suzy Khimm flagged workforce flight, stadiums returned little on their investment and bloggers debated the manufacturing comeback. John Hodgman mused on Eastwood's speech as readers got Mittrolled.

In sports coverage, Serena Williams redefined tennis, and as a reader reflected on the Paralympics, athlete Kyron Duke watched the London crowd.

In assorted commentary, as Al Qaeda threatened, James Barilla contemplated living in disaster-prone areas. Then a latter-day direwolf sang the Game of Thrones theme, Paul Bourke captured fractal earth and Philip Roth dueled Wikipedia. And though the jury remained out on hydration's cosmetic upside, women definitely out-schooled men. Meanwhile, a scientist became the go-to guy on apocalypse, Jehovah's Witnesses warned the deaf against onanism – with the help of R. Kelly – and Jonothon Gold explained the tricks of his trade. Finally, a charming VFYW here!

"Poetic Cosmos of the Breath" by Tomas Saraceno

Saturday and Sunday on the Dish, Andrew asked if the conventions had changed the presidential race – and grew more hopeful about Obama's chances – while George Weigel provided a glimpse of how the misguided rightwing mind still views the contest. Deborah Orr fell in love with America, Vladimir Putin spoke of a different sort of romance in Russia, Texas continued its outsized ways, and Tom Junod mused on what waterparks teach us about democracy.

Mostly, though, politics receded as we thought about books and culture. John Jeremiah Sullivan defined the latter for a young Southerner, Martin Amis explained how the world was becoming less innocent, Jonathan Franzen approached birdwatching with awe, and D.T. Max described the difficult work of interviewing those who loved David Foster Wallace. Thomas Heis remembered F. Scott Fitzgerald's downward spiral, Caleb Crain considered the critic's freedom, Kerry Howley noticed the remarkably consistent guidelines at erotic publishing houses, BLS Nelson portrayed Wittgenstein as a lone wolf, Alan Lightman meditated on life's inevitable changes, and Zoë Heller complicated Naomi Wolf's ideas about sex and creativity. It wasn't all highbrow, however – Jessica Roy uncovered the history of Rickroll and Alexis Madrigal highlighted a great Missed Connection at Burning Man. Read Saturday's poem here and Sunday's here.

We explored religion, too. Francis Spufford defended the emotional core of Christian faith, Yuan Zhiming saw the universal message of Jesus as a threat to Chinese communism, Peter Berger investigated the religious significance of beards, Kate Blanchard pondered when religion deserves our respect, David Montgomery noted the surprising contribution of creationism to geology, and Francine Prose plumbed the connection between art and the divine.

In assorted coverage, Drew Nelles recounted the strange history of animals being tried in court, Jamie Feldmar looked back on the power lunch, Linda Besner analyzed why depressives are in touch with reality, Sam Dunne covered the latest in condom wrapper innovation, Ike Anya disproved the myth that depression is just for Westerners, and Adam Frank reflected on how we experience time. FOTDs here and here, MHBs here and here, VFYWs here and here, and the latest window contest here.

– G.G.