Romney’s Best Shot


How Larison sees tonight's debate:

Tonight’s debate is not Romney’s “last shot,” but it is almost certainly his best available shot. Domestic policy issues are naturally far more important to almost all voters, so there is at least the potential to win over some doubters. Barring some major event in the next few weeks, people voting on foreign policy have already made up their minds one way or the other, but Romney might still be able to win over some remaining undecided voters on the issues being discussed tonight. That poses its own challenges, since Romney usually trails Obama on most of these issues, too, but at least he leads on one or two of them. Romney is theoretically more prepared and much stronger on these issues than he is on foreign policy. (I know, that’s not saying much.)

Gallup's latest numbers support that reading:

Romney … fares better than Obama when Americans are asked to say whether the economy will be better or worse in four years if each is elected. Overall, 50% say the economy will be better if Romney is elected and 35% worse, for a net score of +15. Obama's net score on the same question is +8, with 48% predicting the economy would be better in four years if he is re-elected and 40% saying it will be worse.