Will Democrats Campaign On Cannabis? Ctd

Like Bernstein and Yglesias, Nate Cohn suspects so:

Marijuana legalization may be increasingly popular, but it’s not clearly an electoral bonanza. Support for legalization isn’t very far above 50 percent, if it is in fact, and there are potential downsides. National surveys show that a third of Democrats still oppose marijuana legalization. Seniors, who turnout in high numbers in off year elections, are also opposed. Altogether, it’s very conceivable that there are more votes to be lost than won by supporting marijuana. After all, marijuana legalization underperformed President Obama in Washington State.

Even so, Democratic voters will eventually prevail over cautious politicians, most likely through the primary process. Any liberal rival to Hillary Clinton in 2016 will have every incentive to support marijuana legalization.

But David Harsanyi sees few signs that legalization is becoming the new marriage equality:

Where you stand on gay marriage has become something of a bellwether in Beltway circles, indicative not only of your cultural awareness and political IQ, but your prospects. Either you get 21st century America or you don’t.

Well, what about the Drug War?

As far as I can tell, not a single elected official in Washington actively supports marijuana legalization. Not a single governor. Not a single Senator. And, moreover, few of them have been asked, much less seriously pressed, to explain where they stand on the issue. Some unlikely counterintuitive voices pop up here and there – Tom Tancredo, former congressman, anti-immigration activist and candidate for governor of Colorado and Sen. John McCain are to examples of politician who, to varying degrees, have been open to marijuana legalization – but, despite the growing popularity of the position generally, it’s basically a non issue.

Jonathan Bernstein adds:

Politicians “evolving” on marriage were only worried, really, about current opinion. I’m pretty sure they didn’t worry about a backlash if marriage equality was enacted, and certainly not that if marriage equality took place that newspapers might start running gay marriage horror stories … But politicians will worry that if they support legalization that they could be held responsible for any weed horror stories that emerge — and everyone knows that the press is capable for concocting those, true or not.

Dog Doppelgängers

There’s some science to the old adage that pets look like their owners:

119939095_b88a06e3cc_bResearchers around the world have repeatedly found that strangers can match photos of dogs with photos of their owners at a rate well above chance. Perhaps people are drawn to animals that look like them. In a study of female college students, those with longer hair judged flop-eared dogs—spaniels, beagles—to be more attractive, friendly, and intelligent than dogs with pointy ears; women with shorter hair concluded the opposite. And the apparent affinity between owners and pets is more than fur-deep: One analysis found self-described “dog people” to be less neurotic than “cat people,” who were more curious. Another study, which cross-referenced personality-test scores and breed preferences, noted that disagreeable people favored aggressive dogs.

While the Law of Attraction—like attracts like, or in this case, adopts like—might explain some of these similarities, there’s reason to think pets also emulate their owners.

A 2011 study found that dogs tasked with opening a door preferred whichever of two methods of door-opening they had just observed their owners use (head or hands/paws), even when offered a treat for the opposite choice. Researchers concluded that dogs possess an “automatic imitation” instinct that can override both natural behavior and self-interest. Dogs are also more susceptible to yawn contagion (an indicator of social attachment) when it’s their master, rather than a stranger, doing the yawning.

Wouldn’t you like to meet the owner of this pup?

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(Bottom photo from Carli Davidson‘s Shake, a new coffee-table book you can order here. Live-action book preview here. Top photo from Flickr user Anjuli)

Spying Isn’t Always In Our Interests

Rothkopf is in the camp that feels the NSA’s snooping has gone too far:

Yes, many governments spy. But so too do all countries have armies, police forces, and tax codes. In each instance, the question is not whether to pursue the activity — it is how to do it, how to limit it, and what values should underpin it. Our spying has overreached. We took risks we shouldn’t have for rewards that were too limited. Even when there were perceived threats that seemed to warrant these activities (and that cannot be the case in some of the recent examples we have encountered of spying against friends and companies), many of those threats may themselves not have been so great to warrant the risks associated with spying. What if the NSA scandals result in a more fragmented global Internet? What if they are used as an excuse by repressive regimes to violate their own citizens’ privacy? What if they are used as an excuse to deny U.S. companies access to their markets? What if they are used as an excuse to justify similar actions against the United States?

Keating doesn’t think we can brush off the NSA’s wiretaps as spying as usual:

Even if allied governments assumed this type of spying was going on, the scale of these programs, the targets involved, and the newness of the type of spying mean the governments involved have to come up with some sort of political response. Those who brush this off as no big deal should also think about how we would react if the situation were reversed. Yes, we know that there are foreign spies, including those from friendly governments, operating within the United States. But if credible reports emerged that the Mexican government was tapping Barack Obama’s BlackBerry or that France was monitoring thousands of American phone calls, do we really think American news outlets and politicians would just brush it off as the price of doing business? (Also, someone should ask Jonathan Pollard if a little espionage between friends is no big deal.)

At this point, it also seems highly doubtful that Brazil, Mexico, and Germany would be the only governments the U.S.  is conducting this type of surveillance on. We’re likely to see more shoes dropping and a lot more diplomatic impact.

Chart Of The Day

GOP Brand

Sargent breaks down the Republican party’s unpopularity:

Polling released this week by the Washington Post and ABC News found the GOP’s unfavorability ratings among Americans at an all-time high of 63 percent. But a closer look at the numbers reveals that this has been accompanied by a massive collapse in 2013 of the GOP brand among core constituencies important in midterm elections: Independents, women, and seniors. The crack Post polling team has produced a new chart demonstrating that in the last year — since just before the 2012 election – there’s been a truly astonishing spike in the GOP’s unfavorable ratings among these core groups

The Crystal Ball has put out new House rankings:

To sum it up, the race for the House is getting more interesting by the day.

Republicans remain favored to retain control — call it Likely Republican in the parlance of our ratings — but the shutdown has shaken things up. At this point, we’re now expecting a small Democratic gain, instead of the small Republican gain we were forecasting earlier in the cycle. That prognostication is likely to change once Congress tackles the same old fiscal deadlock in January and February. Have Republicans learned anything from their October debacle? We shall see.

Nate Cohn remains cautious:

If there’s anything I could get people to understand about the next election, it’s this: Even a 2006 or 2010-esque tsunami might not give Democrats control of the House. That might seem shocking. In 2006, Democrats won 31 seats; Republicans won 63 in 2010. Today, Democrats only need 17 seats—which might not sound like much. But the fact is that Republicans just aren’t exposed. To turn the “tsunami” into an extended metaphor, an unprecedented share of the Republican caucus has evacuated to high ground.

Coverage You Can’t Keep

Over the past few days, there have been several stories like this one:

CareFirst BlueCross BlueShield is being forced to cancel plans that currently cover 76,000 individuals in Virginia, Maryland, and Washington, D.C., due to changes made by President Obama’s health care law, the company told the Washington Examiner today. That represents more than 40 percent of the 177,000 individuals covered by CareFirst in those states.

More examples:

Florida Blue … is terminating about 300,000 policies, about 80 percent of its individual policies in the state. Kaiser Permanente in California has sent notices to 160,000 people – about half of its individual business in the state.  Insurer Highmark in Pittsburgh is dropping about 20 percent of its individual market customers, while Independence Blue Cross, the major insurer in Philadelphia, is dropping about 45 percent.

Last week, Bob Laszewski explained what’s happening:

The U.S. individual health insurance market currently totals about 19 million people. Because the Obama administration’s regulations on grandfathering existing plans were so stringent about 85% of those, 16 million, are not grandfathered and must comply with Obamacare at their next renewal. The rules are very complex. For example, if you had an individual plan in March of 2010 when the law was passed and you only increased the deductible from $1,000 to $1,500 in the years since, your plan has lost its grandfather status and it will no longer be available to you when it would have renewed in 2014.

These 16 million people are now receiving letters from their carriers saying they are losing their current coverage and must re-enroll in order to avoid a break in coverage and comply with the new health law’s benefit mandates––the vast majority by January 1. Most of these will be seeing some pretty big rate increases.

 

Level With Us, Mr. President

President Obama Discusses Immigration Reform At The White House

Barro wants some straight talk:

The administration is still behaving like it is trying to get Obamacare enacted, and therefore its top public relations task is to bury negative stories about the law and emphasize the upside, like heavy consumer interest. But this is a mistake. Obamacare is already the law, and its long term political success is going to be determined by its substantive policy success — including whether consumers are able to sign up and get the health coverage they want.

There’s no reason not to level with the public right now, unless the truth is so horrible and the website is so un-fixable that Obama administration officials can’t bring themselves to discuss the matter publicly. I suspect that’s not the case. But I’d feel better if they stopped trying to sell the line that the issue here is basically a great product whose website is getting overwhelmed by intense interest, and started speaking frankly about what’s wrong and how they’re fixing it.

Couldn’t put it better myself. Charlie Cook also has a typically shrewd take – even as Captain Hindsight. From the get-go, there has been what you might call a defensive-aggressive approach to the ACA. By defensive-aggressive, I mean a classic Democratic trait which is to believe that you are more enlightened than the country at large and must therefore govern with both relentlessness and some degree of stealth. The Republican refusal to engage constructively on the question made this much worse, of course. But the blame lies, in the end, with the president. He should have been far more proactive and forthright about the desperate need for reform, and never stopped making those core points. He was admirably persistent in pushing this reform through, but so far from persistent in making the case for it.

Yes, he got universal healthcare through an American polity usually incapable of producing such major policy shifts – besting Nixon and Clinton. But he did so by maneuvering deftly through the system, rather than making it a constant refrain in his public appearances. He has made some great speeches on this, but if it is your core domestic initiative, you have to be much more relentless in your explanation and persuasion. I know the presidency is a tough job, and God knows he has had a lot on his plate – but he’s the one who insisted (rightly) that a president must be able to walk and chew gum at the same time.

Perhaps spooked by the 2010 Congressional elections, the president pocketed his controversial domestic win and then laid low. Healthcare was not one of his rallying cries in the election – because it was not the most popular part of his agenda. But over the long haul, legitimizing his healthcare law and reminding us of its core gains – lower costs, no bar on pre-existing conditions, and an end to free-riding – was more important than simply securing re-election the least difficult way. Then, too defensively, the Obama team waited until the website roll-out to make their case – hoping, presumably, to capitalize on what they imagined would be a great online experience. Then came the mismanaged disaster, followed by ever more defensive – and somewhat opaque – public statements. Kathleen Sebelius’s appearance on the Daily Show (a key demographic for the law) was one of the worst performances I’ve ever seen of a public official defending her own work. It was a textbook case in how not to talk to the public. It has gone downhill from there, including the president’s super-lame Rose Garden mix of ebullience and defensiveness.

What we need is candor. We need the president first of all to take personal responsibility for this failure. He needs to apologize to the country for what was either terrible executive branch management or negligence. And he needs to fire those responsible as a simple matter of accountability. If he had no clue of the train-wreck, his administration is not functioning correctly.  The problems were foreseen as long ago as this spring by Max Baucus. He wasn’t clairvoyant about the website, but he presciently warned of a looming train-wreck because the exchanges would not be ready on time and because the administration had done such a piss-poor job of communicating the core provisions to the public. He was in constant touch with Sebelius, and regarded their exchanges as futile.

This is not about the concept of the ACA – although its complexity, a function in part of the political Rubik’s Cube any healthcare form needs to solve in America, is an obvious weakness (Ross Douthat’s examinations of that are enlighteningly fair-minded). This is about competence and confidence. If the federal government were a business, and the ACA were a new product, its stocks would be in the toilet right now. If Apple made an iPhone that experienced massive failures on the consumer end from the start, it would be withdrawn. But, of course, the government is not a business, and the ACA is not just a product but a law. But competence still matters a huge amount.

I’m sure many are working furiously to fix the website problems. Things may work out in the end, as they did in Massachusetts and with Medicare D, after early choppy waters. But competence also requires confidence. Confidence requires extreme candor from the top. Stop trying to sell a product people cannot easily buy. Explain why this happened, and who has taken responsibility. Fire them. Apologize. Be totally forthright about everything you know. Explain the plan to fix it – clearly. Reiterate the core goals of the law – with an emphasis on its many popular aspects. If some kind of delay is needed, say so now. Don’t stumble back into it later. Or do it in embarrassing half-ass stages.

This is basic public relations. It should be reflexive for a president who told us he would admit error when he has screwed up, unlike his predecessor. Instead, we have defensive acknowledgments of the bleeding obvious, and a drip-drip-drip of bad news leaking from congressional hearings and reporters. At this point, the president is behind the ball. He needs to get ahead of it – and fast. Or he will begin to look like George W Bush spinning his Iraq fiasco. Unlike Bush, Obama has many supporters prepared to confront and criticize him publicly, which is a help. The president now needs to rise to this occasion or have his own singular policy choice, like Bush’s, become a synonym for government incompetence. Confess, Mr President. Americans forgive failures explained forthrightly. They rightly never forgive those who cannot plainly and clearly admit error and take responsibility.

(Photo by Win McNamee/Getty)

Hypocrisy As A “Key Strategic Resource”

Henry Farrell and Martha Finnemore assert that “the deeper threat that leakers such as Manning and Snowden pose is more subtle than a direct assault on US national security: They undermine Washington’s ability to act hypocritically and get away with it”:

Of course, the United States is far from the only hypocrite in international politics. But the United States’ hypocrisy matters more than that of other countries. That’s because most of the world today lives within an order that the United States built, one that is both underwritten by US power and legitimated by liberal ideas. … This system needs the lubricating oil of hypocrisy to keep its gears turning. To ensure that the world order continues to be seen as legitimate, US officials must regularly promote and claim fealty to its core liberal principles; the United States cannot impose its hegemony through force alone. But as the recent leaks have shown, Washington is also unable to consistently abide by the values that it trumpets. This disconnect creates the risk that other states might decide that the US-led order is fundamentally illegitimate.

Agreed. And this is one of liberalism’s great weak spots. It cannot abide hypocrisy while never fully understanding how, in a fallen world, it is a key lubricant for almost all human society. As someone once wrote, hypocrisy is the tribute vice pays to virtue. It reflects the simple fact that we cannot live up to the ideals we often have. So they keep some things on the down-low. This is true of all of us, including governments. Most marriages, for example, could not survive total transparency. The manifold husbands staying up late to jack off on the computer downstairs do not want to tell their wives, because it would hurt the marriage they actually want to keep. But they cannot help their sex drive, the power of novelty in sexual attraction, or the astonishingly easy access to porn morning, noon and night. So discretion in these cases – which can be a form of hypocrisy – is the norm.

In other words, hypocrisy – of the mildest kind – makes marriage possible. It makes any relationship – business or otherwise – possible. It makes statecraft particularly possible in ways Glenn Greenwald, I’m afraid, has not fully accepted. I’m not defending unnecessary secrecy or lack of democratic accountability and a certain degree of transparency. I’m defending a more pragmatic approach to how we actually live our lives in society and how some level of hypocrisy makes that possible. Hypocrisy is also a two-way street. Are we supposed to believe that the aggrieved Angela Merkel does not have her own espionage capacities, does not spy on other countries, does not scoop up intelligence? Of course not. Yet we respect her complaints as a necessary form of hypocrisy.

Because fully exposing that hypocrisy, however noble and exhilarating, takes a toll on how the world is governed, and how countries are defended. Writing elsewhere, Farrell notes that American leaks are also putting foreign governments, such as Brazil’s, in a tight spot:

Leaked documents from Manning, Snowden and others are making it much harder for other states to pretend that they don’t know what the US is doing. The US is less able to hypocritically pretend that it’s not doing stuff that it is doing, while other states are less able to hypocritically ignore what the US is doing. The result is that systematized hypocrisy is becoming a lot more costly for the US  than it used to be.

Joshua Foust is troubled:

Seen this way, you could envision all of these disclosures from Snowden not to be a defense of civil liberties  –  the documents moved past that a while ago. And it is important to remember: the NSA is legally obligated to surveil foreign communications — that is its explicit purpose as constructed by US law. Rather, they are an attack on the very existence and behavior of the US intelligence community. That may be something some of the most ardent anti-NSA activists, such as Glenn Greenwald, are comfortable doing. But it should raise all sorts of uncomfortable questions among those who merely want reform. Putting the US at a stark disadvantage compared to its most active rivals and competitors  – neither Russia nor China face nearly as much scrutiny in their intelligence activities, for example  – is difficult to see as anything other than an attack on the US, not a defense of anyone’s rights.

Farrell disagrees:

This seems to me to be basically mistaken. If Snowden, or Greenwald, were looking simply to ‘attack’ the US, they would be behaving in very different ways. It is pretty clear that they are (or, in Snowden’s case, were) sitting on a hoard of material, some of which is potentially far more damaging to US intelligence (by revealing methodologies, etc.) than anything they have revealed. What they have chosen to reveal is embarrassing, and revelatory of US hypocrisy, rather than striking at the heart of NSA methodologies. You may like this, or dislike this, depending on your political druthers. But it is far closer to the kinds of actions that human rights NGOs engage in than the kinds of action that spies do.

NGOs are under few illusions about governments’ profound commitment to human rights, civil liberties and so on – most governments, much of the time, are prepared to water these commitments down where it is expedient, when they do not abandon them altogether. So what NGOs do is to play the politics of hypocrisy against states, strategically revealing hypocritical behavior so as to embarrass governments into behaving better. Snowden’s and Greenwald’s actions seem to fit very well into this framework.

Drezner adds:

Going forward, it will be interesting to see whether the Obama administration adopts new policies and rhetoric designed to reduce the exposed levels of hypocrisy. So far, administration officials have veered in the opposite direction – the mantra of “we’re only using this super-high-powered surveillance stuff on foreigners, not Americans” has tarnished America’s image abroad even more.  Unless the US government changes its tune, then we’re about to get a good empirical test of what happens when the hegemon’s “lubricating oil of hypocrisy” evaporates.

That would not be pretty.

Streaming The Small Screen

Netflix Subscribers

Alyssa sees Netflix focusing more and more on television instead of movies, noting that subscribers are more likely to stick around for a longer series, and that the TV format allows for the production of more content for less:

Netflix can spend $100 million on 26 hours of House of Cards programming, where if it wanted to compete and film blockbusters, $100 million might only buy the company 90 minutes of programming. And the investments Netflix makes in sets for television shows can amortize over years of production if a show is successful. The question of syndication costs is trickier, but the basic equation remains the same–Netflix needs a huge volume of content, and a larger overall investment in a television show may be much more worthwhile for Netflix if the cost per hour is lower. It’s true that on the call with investors, [Chief Content Officer Ted] Sarandos suggested he’d be interested in documentaries–which come with a much, much smaller price tag–and movies that Netflix might be able to have first runs on. But he’s not going to get into the hugely expensive sports market. And I’d imagine that whatever movies the company does pursue will have price tags in keeping with their value to the company.

Derek Thompson comments on the remarkable growth of Netflix’s subscriber base:

[M]ore Netflix consumers are clearly good news for Netflix consumers. If Netflix can get one to two million more people to pay $7.99 for its service each quarter, it doesn’t have to raise prices on existing customers. Indeed, Netflix hasn’t changed its monthly fee ($7.99) for the last two years, which means streaming TV is actually getting cheaper each year in inflation-adjusted terms. That’s amazing. Even more amazing is Hastings spending hundreds of millions of dollars (amortized over who-knows-how-long) on new contracts with Disney and exclusive rights to shows like “House of Cards” and “Orange Is the New Black.” If it needs 1-2 million more customers each quarter to keep revenue and net income targets, then so far, so good …

(Chart from Zachary Seward.)

How Much Carbon Must We Remove?

Scott K. Johnson spotlights a recent study by Andrew MacDougall on what is would take to return to a pre-industrial climate:

Because warming causes additional carbon to be released into the atmosphere, such as is the case with thawing permafrost, we’ll actually have to remove significantly more CO2 from the atmosphere than we put there by burning fossil fuels. In fact, we’d have to remove roughly 40 percent more in the model simulations. … The study concludes, “These results suggest that even with monumental effort to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, humanity will be living with the consequences of fossil fuel emissions for a very long time.” Solutions that limit the amount of CO2 we end up emitting this century are investments. Not only do they obviously pay off in terms of warming avoided, but they also lessen the burden on future generations should they try to clean up the atmosphere they inherit.