The Pressures Of Prodigy

Catherine Tice chronicles her journey from virtuoso violinist to casual player:

By the time I arrived in New York, I had technical problems. My left hand had become inflexible – practically arthritic, atrophied, in fact. Consequently, I played very badly, so badly I couldn’t recognize myself in an audition for the college philharmonia. I began several pieces, including the Haydn concerto I’d played when twelve, couldn’t get through one, and was ashamed (and secretly relieved). I noted that the concertmistress of this outfit was studying with the very famous Ivan Galamian at Julliard, and was struck by how far I’d fallen behind. …

I became musically exceptional for a child, but I lacked an essential psychological immunity to the dark side of self-criticism. When essential support was withdrawn by degrees it became increasingly difficult for me to do and be what I initially had no intention whatsoever of doing and being. Moreover, it simply isn’t enough to be good.

There is still regret. I miss very much the feeling that I might express something beautifully in music, and I suppose when I listen to others play or sing, the experience is sometimes tinged with both envy and remorse.

Children of this generation have some extra tools, such as the one seen above:

Much like Guitar Hero, the Projected Instrument Augmentation system streams blocks of color down a screen to meet the correct key at the exact moment that it should be played, having you playing like a pro in no time.

The Nobel Albatross

Physicist Mark Jackson suggests that the prize can hasten the end of a productive research career:

Ironically, receiving the prize that recognizes a great accomplishment is often accompanied with a decline in scientific accomplishment. This is most likely due to the deluge of social demands placed upon the laureates, who are perceived not just as great scientists but also sages. French biochemist André Lwoff, winner of the 1965 physiology or medicine prize, speaking on behalf of his colleagues, observed, “We have gone from zero to the condition of movie stars. … When you have organized your life for your work and then such a thing happens to you, you discover that you are faced with fantastic new responsibilities, new duties.”

The most bizarre post-Nobel career is undoubtedly that of Brian Josephson, who shared the 1973 physics prize for devising the eponymous solid-state junction. Afterwards Josephson became a follower of the Maharishi Mahesh Yogi and attempted to reconcile quantum physics with transcendental meditation. He is now director of the Mind-Matter Unification Project at Cambridge University, working hard to keep Britain at the “forefront of research” on telepathy.

The Best Of The Dish Today

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It was another grueling, dispiriting day in Washington. What truly terrifies me is the almost Egypt-level of mutual incomprehension that is being displayed. I take it for granted, for example, that the deficit is falling fast, that the current continuing resolution that is now in suspension affirmed the sequester levels of spending that are far lower than most Democrats would like, that Obamacare is settled law that can only be repealed by the usual democratic process, and that no sane government would default on its debts. But none of this seems to be accepted by the spokespeople of the Republican “party”.

They argue that we are facing a Greece-like implosion because of the current levels of debt (and not because they have shut down the government and are refusing to pay our bills until they stop Obamacare), that the deficit is growing (according to Speaker Boehner this week), that Obamacare is such a destruction of the entire American economy that it must be stopped or delayed at even the cost of a default, that a default is impossible anyway, and that even if we defaulted it would be no big deal.

That’s where we are. We cannot agree upon basic empirical fact in order to have a conversation, let alone a negotiation. If we were for a moment to step outside this cognitive abyss, I’d simply defer to the view of almost every single expert on the subject that even thinking about a default could be a catastrophic event not just for the American but for the entire global economy. Whatever your view of the budget or healthcare reform or the debt, surely no responsible government leader would want that to happen. And yet one party seems openly prepared to threaten it, even to save face among their increasingly radicalized followers.

The Republicans, alas, have two advantages that stem from their radicalism (yes, in a classic piece of total projection, they are the real Alinskyites and Obama is the real conservative). To any neutral observer – say, anyone outside the US – they are easily the crazier ones.

And they are holding a gun to the head of the American government and the economy. Do I believe they would happily explode this country’s credit and economy rather than have to go through the difficult task of building an actual majority in the country for their agenda? Yes, I’m afraid I do. I’ve been waiting to see some scintilla of resistance to ever further radicalization, and I see none whatsoever.

More to the point, most of the public’s eyes glaze over when you explain that the budget – with sequester-level austerity – has already been agreed to and that we are discussing now whether the Congress, having set such a budgetary path, will keep the federal government open and pay the country’s bills. Instead, the GOP can simply switch the subject, claim we are in a perilous debt crisis already and that the debt ceiling is the last stand before we end up like Greece. There is no evidence for this, so far as I can see. But that doesn’t matter if you really live in your own mental universe. In that universe, when the default occurs and the economy crashes, and the stock market collapses, and the dollar sinks like a stone, you can simply state that it was all Obama’s fault. And there are enough true-believers out there who’ll actually buy it. Worse, an economic collapse will inevitably make Obama less popular.

So there are two choices, it seems to me. Obama can invoke emergency executive authority to protect the unquestionable credit of the United States and dare the Courts to over-rule him and the Congress to impeach him. Or Obama can give in to what is an unbelievably outrageous tactic – and try to salvage some kind of interim budget deal that will raise the debt ceiling in return for some kind of Republican trophy. That would be a surrender of profound implications for future presidents – yes, Republican ones too – and fundamentally alter our political system to reward the kind of blackmail we’re now witnessing. But it would end the immediate emergency and remove the blackmail – for a while, until the GOP insists that, even though they lost the last election, they have a right to run the country permanently, regardless of electoral outcomes.

Better perhaps for the president to act to save the economy and the world in a truly perilous self-induced crisis than to allow this rogue faction to concoct a Lehman-style collapse to the power of 10 and then blame him for it. It remains staggering and outrageous that this is where we are. But if one faction of one party controls the House, and it goes completely rogue, as it has, then what can a sane president do? Juan Linz, as Chait as noted, was onto something.

All I can offer at this point is some relief: my favorite post of the day – on the genius of octopus brains –; a jumping greyhound; an all-too relevant clip from a fantastic stoner apocalypse movie; a truly WTF tourism commercial; a really tough Window View contest; and for pure camp value, Michele Bachmann making me shit myself.

The most popular post? Still my take on the GOP’s core, evolving, contradictory, hysterical bargaining position: “There Is No There There”. The second? “What Moderate Republicans?”

See you in the morning, if I can get out from under the covers.

Window view: Duluth, Minnesota, 12 pm.

A Shutdown Outbreak?

The USDA reported last night that 278 people have fallen ill with salmonella, “likely” due to eating chicken from a California-based poultry firm. Maryn McKenna describes the outbreak as “the exact situation that CDC and other about-to-be-furloughed federal personnel warned about last week”:

As a reminder, a CDC staffer told me at the time: “I know that we will not be conducting multi-state outbreak investigations. States may continue to find outbreaks, but we won’t be doing the cross-state consultation and laboratory work to link outbreaks that might cross state borders.” That means that the lab work and molecular detection that can link far-apart cases and define the size and seriousness of outbreaks are not happening. At the CDC, which operates the national foodborne-detection services FoodNet and PulseNet, scientists couldn’t work on this if they wanted to; they have been locked out of their offices, lab and emails. (At a conference I attended last week, 10 percent of the speakers did not show up because they were CDC personnel and risked being fired if they traveled even voluntarily.)

While the USDA has yet to link the outbreak to a “specific production period,” Robert Gonzales notes that the shutdown has hampered the CDC’s ability to respond to such threats:

Foster Farms’ food safety chief Robert O’Connor insists that the USDA’s food inspection process “has not been affected by the recent government shutdown.” But according to the Associated Press, the CDC, which helps monitor multi-state outbreaks of food poisoning, “was working with a barebones staff because of the federal government shutdown, with all but two of the 80 staffers that normally analyze foodborne pathogens furloughed.” While the AP reports “it was not immediately clear whether the shortage affected the response to the Salmonella outbreak,” shutdown memos issued last week by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the USDA both indicated staff relating to food inspection would be furloughed, further indicating that the government was ill-prepared to prevent and respond to a food-borne outbreak.

The Brittle Certainty Of Fundamentalism

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Dreher reflects on it:

Fundamentalists don’t compromise. That is their strength. But it’s also their weakness. I went over a book the other day written by a theologically stout Evangelical (which is not the same thing as a fundamentalist). The book was about approaching culture. I found it hard to take, even though I found myself agreeing with the author on most general points. I couldn’t quite put my finger on what it was that irritated me so much about the book. What finally became clear to me was that it wasn’t so much the opinions the author held as it was the iron grip with which the author held them. It was as if nuance, irony, and complexity were the enemies of clear thought and pure faith. The worldview expressed in this book was pretty conservative, and as I said, I agree with much of it. But it was airless and highly ideological.

I have been critical of the fact that I didn’t have any doctrinal rigor in my religious education as a young person, and I am allergic to Andrew’s idea that just about any attempt to draw or hold to doctrinal lines makes one into a quasi-fundamentalist (“Christianist”). But I tell you, if I had been raised as a fundamentalist or an Evangelical who was taught to see the world through a narrow and severe idea of truth, I wonder if I would be a Christian today. It’s impossible to say. These things always are. Raise a kid with tap-watery religion, and don’t be surprised if he leaves it. Raise a kid with a religion as hard and cold as ice, and don’t be surprised if he leaves it. This is hard!

I do not believe that adherence to doctrinal lines makes one a Christianist. A Christianist, like an Islamist, cannot rest until his view of the world is enforced by law on others through political action. A Christian can be a rigid doctrinal enforcer in his own faith community without being a Christianist. Let me give Rod an example of a doctrinal line I would not cross: the Incarnation. Or, in fact, the entire Nicene Creed, which I recite at Mass with conviction. But I have no desire at all to impose that view of the meaning of the universe on anyone else whatsoever – let alone backed by the coercion of the state. That is where I differ from Christianists.

Where I differ from doctrinal fundamentalists is where the Pope differs. To wit:

If a person says that he met God with total certainty and is not touched by a margin of uncertainty, then this is not good. For me, this is an important key. If one has the answers to all the questions—that is the proof that God is not with him. It means that he is a false prophet using religion for himself. The great leaders of the people of God, like Moses, have always left room for doubt.

That means not making things like homosexuality and contraception the focus of our faith – turning matters of faith and morals into inviolable doctrine – but insisting on the very core truths and accepting mystery about so much else. In important things, unity; in doubtful things, humility; in all things, charity. But I take Rod’s point about upbringing – and its sometimes counter-intuitive effects. My elementary school – Our Lady and Saint Peter’s – was a wonderful Vatican II Catholic place of learning.

I discovered my faith as a joyful, wondrous, mysterious thing. When it came time for me to go to what Americans call high school, I was enrolled for a while at a Catholic Grammar school, until my parents took me for a visit. Its dourness, brutality, darkness and rigidity made me and my parents shudder and they mercifully placed me at a Protestant high school. I think I probably owe my faith to that decision. If I had been exposed more fully to the dark side of the Catholic church and its institutions – and you only have to look at the hideous history of the church in Ireland for how dark it truly was – then I almost certainly would have rebelled completely. I have authority issues, as some readers may have noticed.

Fighting for my faith in an alien space and climate made me own it more deeply – which is, perhaps, another reason why I have never really believed that enforcing religious beliefs in law helps religion at all. It is more likely to kill it.

The Final Frontier Of Archaeology

Sarah Parcak believes that “today is the most exciting time in history to be an archaeologist”:

Space archaeology refers to the use of space- and air-based sensor systems to discover ancient settlements, cultural remains, and natural features (like relic river courses) otherwise invisible to the naked eye, or hidden due to vegetation and water. Archaeologists use datasets from NASA and commercial satellites, processing the information using various off-the-shelf computer programs. These datasets allow us to see beyond the visible part of the light spectrum into the near, middle, and far infrared. These spectral differences can show subtle differences in vegetation, soil, and geology which then can reveal hidden ancient features.

Satellite datasets like WorldView can see objects as small as 1.5 feet in diameter. In 2014, WorldView-3 will be able to see objects a small as a foot. Another important sensor system is LIDAR (which stands for Light Detection and Ranging). LIDAR uses lasers to scan terrain in fine detail and even penetrate dense rainforest canopy, allowing archaeologists to see beneath the trees to reveal features of interest, from large monuments to small, subtle remnants of ancient homes and road systems.

(Video: LIDAR in action at Stonehenge and surrounding areas)

Face Of The Day

Hundreds Of African Migrants Feared Dead Off The Coastline Of Lampedusa

Immigrants are detained after their arrival in a temporary shelter center in Lampedusa, Italy on October 8, 2013. The search for bodies continues off the coast of southern Italy as the death toll of African migrants who drowned as they tried to reach the island of Lampedusa is expected to reach over 300 people. The tragedy has bought fresh questions over the thousands of asylum seekers that arrive into Europe by boat each year. By Tullio M. Puglia/Getty Images.

Reality Check, Ctd

Various polls on the shutdown find that American disapproval is highest for Congressional Republicans. Kilgore warns against over-interpreting these numbers:

[T]he big differentiator is that self-identified Democrats approve of Obama’s handling of the budget fight by a 77/21 margin, while self-identified GOPers approve of their congressional party’s positioning by a mere 52/45 margin. … What we know beyond the numbers is that despite John Boehner’s forced march towards Ted Cruz’s position on the government shutdown and Obamacare, quite a few conservative opinion-leaders don’t think GOPers have gone far enough. In particular, the Senate Conservative Fund and Heritage Action—along with RedState’s Erick Erickson—have been loudly unhappy with Boehner’s “watering down” of the bedrock “defund Obamacare” position on the continuing resolution.

So it’s entirely possible that a portion of the “blame gap” is represented by conservatives who wouldn’t side with Obama or congressional Democrats on the appropriations or debt limit issues if pigs learned to fly—just as a sizable portion of the people claimed by Republicans as “repeal Obamacare” fans actually favor a single payer system and wouldn’t back GOPers on health care issues if their lives depended on it.

Enten remains focused on the economy:

[T]he political arguments over the shutdown and debt ceiling fight may not matter that much at all.

As University of North Carolina political scientist Jim Stimson found (via Mark Blumenthal of the Huffington Post), it’s consumer sentiment that tends to have the greatest impact on approval ratings and hence elections.

After the last go-round on the debt ceiling, the economy had started to pick up by the end of October 2011, and Obama’s approval rating followed. But the lesson for Democrats who may be thinking smugly that the Republicans will take the biggest hit for the federal shutdown and government default angst is that if the economy goes south as a result, then it’ll likely be the Democratic president who sustains the most damage.

How Facebook Makes You Feel

A recent study suggests that spending time on the social networking site may darken your outlook:

[P]articipants initially completed a set of questionnaires, including one measuring their overall 1955_1336770061satisfaction with life.  Following this, participants were sent text messages 5 times a day for two weeks.  For each text, participants were asked to respond to several questions, including how good they felt at that moment, as well as how much they had used Facebook, and how much they had experienced direct interaction with others, since the last text.  At the end of the two weeks, participants completed a second round of questionnaires.  Here, the researchers once again measured participants’ overall satisfaction with life.

So, how does online interaction make us feel?

The researchers attempted to answer this question by examining the data in two different ways.  First, they looked at how the participant’s moment-to-moment feelings, or affect, changed between each text message.  The data showed that as participants reported using Facebook more often in between any two texts, the more their affect tended to change for the negative.  In other words, across the two weeks, increased Facebook use was associated with declines in affect.  Interestingly, this relationship disappeared when participants had very little direct social contact, and was much stronger when they had quite a lot of social contact.

In the second set of analyses, the researchers looked at whether each individual’s average amount of Facebook use over the course of two weeks was related to their overall life satisfaction at the end of the study.  People who tended to use Facebook more also tended to have larger declines in life satisfaction at the end of the study.

Previous Dish on Facebook here, here, and here.

Could The GOP Lose The House?

Relying on PPP’s latest polling, Sam Wang thinks it’s possible:

If the election were held today, Democrats would pick up around 30 seats, giving them control of the chamber. I do not expect this to happen. Many things will happen in the coming 12 months, and the current crisis might be a distant memory. But at this point I do expect Democrats to pick up seats next year, an exception to the midterm rule.

Nate Cohn throws some cold water:

Democrats aren’t yet poised to mount serious challenges to a clear majority of the Republicans running on competitive turf, let alone actually win. So you should probably take this morning’s PPP poll with an additional grain of salt: it’s about how House Republicans would fare against a “generic” Democrat, not the mediocre one they’ll face in 2014. Perhaps the shutdown will trigger a wave of GOP retirements and Democratic recruits. But without both, Democrats will probably crest short of 218.

Enten also tackles PPP:

This “generic” bias might have been balanced in vulnerable seats for Democrats, except PPP didn’t poll any. If PPP and MoveOn had any real interest in seeing what the state of the House was, they’d poll Democratic controlled seats too. After all, the Rothenberg Political Report finds a nearly equal number of Democratic and Republican seats in play.

Theodore Arrington explains why retaking the House is so difficult for Democrats:

To get half the seats, Democrats will have to garner about 53% of the two-party vote. This is not impossible, as they performed above this level in 2006 and 2008, but it makes the task of winning a majority of the House seats an uphill climb.

Kyle Kondik adds:

[I]f Republicans do open the door to the Democrats in the House, it’s not going to be the “Ted Cruz Republicans” who will pay the price. Rather, it’s the House Republicans in marginal districts who could see their ranks decimated, just like the House Democratic moderates whose anti-Obamacare votes couldn’t save them in 2010.

Meanwhile, Kornacki notes that Republican recklessness could create “fallout for the party in Senate races, where the excesses of Tea Party-ism have already cost the GOP winnable races in 2010 and 2012 and could do so again next year.”