How Likely Is Immigration Reform?

Rand Paul has announced his support for a pathway to citizenship. Chait upgrades immigration reform’s chances:

If figures like Rubio look around and see other Republicans edging for the exits, they’ll in turn beat a retreat.

As of now, though, all the 2016 contenders can support a bill in the anticipation that their major rivals will be locked in to the same stance. The most plausible vehicle for a grassroots insurgent candidacy was Paul, who had harnessed his father’s grassroots appeal with shrewd cultivation of the party elite. With Paul signed up with the pro-reform cartel, nobody is going to make Rubio, Bush, or Ryan nervous, which means there’s little right now to stop a bill from passing the House this summer.