No Cakewalk For Clinton

Nate Cohn isn’t expecting a Clinton landslide in 2016. He thinks that, if “Clinton isn’t winning Romney voters at the height of her popularity, there’s cause to be skeptical about whether she will in four years”:

In the critical battleground states of the Midwest and West, Clinton actually appears to be doing worse than Obama. Not only do recent surveys show her below 50 percent in Colorado and Iowa, but she leads candidates like Rand Paul by just 4 points in Iowa and 3 points in Colorado—worse than Obama’s 5-plus point victories in those states.

On the other hand, Clinton is performing much better than Obama in Southern states with a large number of traditionally Democratic white voters who supported Romney, like Kentucky and even Florida. But Clinton’s strength in these areas might be especially likely to fade, or at least especially unlikely to pay off.