What’s The Ideal Age For Household Gifts?

With Americans getting married later and later in life, Yglesias argues that wedding presents no longer make sense because those getting married tend to already have the basics:

At least among the higher-education set, it would be fair and wise to redirect the gift-giving impulse to a more logical occasion, like college graduation. The 21st century’s debt-laden new grads are at roughly the age and life circumstances that the wedding-present tradition is suited for. Launching a new household involves large up-front costs at a time when people haven’t yet had the chance to earn much money. A little help from both parents and a broader circle of aunts and uncles and sundry cousins would be welcome. Meanwhile, leave the newlyweds to fend for themselves. Your presence at their celebration should be its own reward.

He responds to his critics:

The main pushback I’ve gotten is that the article seems written with a relatively educated relatively affluent audience in mind (i.e., Slate‘s audience) and things may look different if we’re talking about a more financially strapped couple. Maybe so, but, of course, if you want to talk about poorer people then the gift-givers are going to be poorer as well, and fundamentally I think all the same points carry over mutadis [sic] mutandis.

Can We Eradicate Fear?

In the case of PTSD sufferers, scientists are undertaking the effort with fascinating results:

Researchers study the mechanisms of fear by testing rats’ abilities to learn to associate ordinarily neutral stimuli, like beeping noises, to unpleasant stimuli, like electric shocks. When researchers condition rats to expect a shock upon hearing beeps, making the beep a “conditioned stimulus,” fear learning is said to have taken place. Likewise, when they learn to dissociate the conditioned stimuli with the shocks, called the “unconditioned stimuli,” this is evidence of fear extinction. …

Dr. Burghardt’s study showed that when rats were treated with an [antidepressant] SSRI called tianeptine, it drastically altered their capacities for fear extinction. Rats that received short-term SSRI treatments—they got the drug for 9 days—developed a greater capacity for fear extinction. Conversely, rats that were treated for 22 days saw their ability to cultivate fear extinction become impaired.

Researchers also noted in the group treated for 22 days a decrease in the amount of a particular receptor protein largely affected by serotonin activity. This suggests that the protein, called the NR2B subunit of the NMDA glutamate receptor, is crucial in mediating the fear responses. Which means that the millions of people taking antidepressants for PTSD may be quashing their ability to successfully instigate fear extinction—and fear learning.

Paying Off Arrested Development’s Mortgage


Matthew Ball conducts a lengthy analysis of the economics of Netflix’s recent season of Arrested Development:

I’d argue that it is unlikely that Arrested Development will convince millions of users to stay an extra month in 2014 and 2015. If this is the case, the show would need to achieve its return in the immediate future. Therefore, if we don’t see Netflix adding four to five million new subscribers during the quarter, one of two things are true. One, the show was a poor investment whose draw was a fraction of those anticipated, or two, the show is instead intended to convince many of the million subscribers currently churning away each month to defer their cancellation. This would be telling.

He concludes that Netflix’s original content is less about attracting subscribers, and more about buffering against rising licensing fees for their other content. Felix thinks Ball misunderstands Netflix’s strategy:

[W]hat Ball misses, I think, is that Netflix is playing a very, very long game here — not one measured in months or quarters, and certainly not one where original content pays for itself within a year. Netflix doesn’t particularly want or need the content it produces in-house to make a profit on a short-term basis. Instead, it wants “to become HBO faster than HBO can become Netflix,” in the words of its chief content officer Ted Sarandos.

Most importantly, the thing that Netflix aspires to, and which HBO already has, is an exclusive library of shows. If everything goes according to plan, then the Netflix of the future will be something people feel that they have to subscribe to, on the grounds that it’s the only place where they can find shows A, B, C, and D. That’s what it means to become HBO — and Netflix is fully cognizant that this is a process which takes many years and billions of dollars.

The Plight Of The Mentally Ill

Harold Pollack feels that deinstitutionalization, “the broad set of policies designed to move individuals with disabilities out of large institutions into family- or community-based settings,” was a mixed bag:

On the whole, deinstitutionalization improved the lives of millions of Americans living with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD) — albeit with many exceptions.  These policies allowed people to live with proper support, on a human scale, within their own communities. Second, deinstitutionalization was far less successful in serving the needs of Americans suffering from severe mental illness (SMI) — again, with many exceptions.

He also considers the political power of these groups:

[T]he disparities that prove most damaging for public policy reflect disparities in political standing and social stigma between the two groups. People with intellectual disabilities rank among the most appealing constituencies in America. Their well-organized caregivers — people like me — cross every economic, social, and ideological boundary. I cannot imagine, for example, that a policy akin to the IMD exclusion could be imposed on the intellectually disabled.

Similar differences arise in everyday life, as is obvious to any caregiver. Group homes for the intellectually disabled do not face the same “Not in my backyard” problems that beset similar group homes for people with SMI.  Constrained by stigma and fear, housing facilities for individuals with psychiatric disorders tend to be larger, more clustered within less-desirable neighborhoods. It’s much harder to attract required funds or public acceptance for best-practice SMI interventions.

Keith Humphreys adds “one gloss about the standard by which we judge the effects of deinstitutionalization on people with SMI”:

If we assume that the pitiable man with schizophrenia on the corner would be in a high-quality, safe, well-staffed state mental hospital if only the country hadn’t deinstitutionalized, we are inventing a past that rarely existed. Granted, it may bother the rest of us more that someone is sleeping in their own waste on the street than when the same thing happens in a back ward of an institution, but that’s because only in the former case do we have to look at such suffering, not because the person themselves is necessarily worse off.

Television As Birth Control?

India Fertility TV

Gwynn Guilford spots a connection between television watching in India and the country’s fertility rate:

Over a three-year period, academics Robert Jensen and Emily Oster researched rural villages in five Indian states. They found that once the village got cable TV access, fertility declined within a year (pdf). This has happened elsewhere too. Fertility dropped markedly as more and more Brazilian villages got on the cable grid from 1970 to 1999, according to research by academics Eliana La Ferrara, Alberto Chong, and Suzanne Duryea. …

Though Jensen and Oster’s research in India didn’t focus on the impact of a single type of program, they too conclude that Indian soap operas, which tend to feature independent urban women, might be the critical factor in driving down birth rates. Exposure to TV also tended to accompany a shift in values—fewer rural women who had TV said they found domestic violence acceptable or expressed a preference for male children.

Martin Lewis, who provides the above image, tackled this issue a couple months ago:

As it turns out, the map of television ownership in India does bear a particularly close resemblance to the fertility map. Two anomalously low-fertility states with low levels of female education, Andhra Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir, score relatively high on TV penetration, as does West Bengal, which lags on several other important socio-economic indicators.

The correlation is far from perfect: Mizoram ranks higher on the TV chart than its fertility figures would indicate, whereas Odisha and Assam rank lower. Odisha and Assam turn out to be a bit less exceptional in a related but broader and more gender-focused metric, that of “female exposure to media.” These figures, which include a television component, seem to provide the best overall correlation with the spatial patterns of Indian fertility

Putting Fear To Work

Waldman bets that this ad against drunk driving will prove ineffective:

The anti-drunk-driving campaign of the 1980s was successful in large part because it joined the message about the dangers of drunk driving with a way people could avoid it, by introducing the concept of the designated driver, which ended up becoming a cultural norm. And this, it turns out, is central to the success of public health communication campaigns on topics like this one. Research has shown (here’s a meta-analysis on this topic if you want to read more) that fear is actually quite useful, the more the better. But the message also needs to increase people’s sense of efficacy, so that they have a way to resolve the fear through their actions. There are actually two kinds of efficacy that matter: self-efficacy, which is whether you believe you can successfully do whatever is being recommended (“Will I remember to bring a condom?”) and response efficacy, which is whether you believe the recommended action is going to work (“Do condoms prevent transmission of HIV?”).

If you succeed in making people afraid of something, like catching a terrible disease, they’ll look for a way to handle the threat. But if you don’t give them something they can do to alleviate the threat itself, they’ll deal just with the fear they’re feeling, by denying that they’re vulnerable (“That’ll never happen to me”) or just trying not to think about it.

Obama’s Betrayal On Syria

SYRIA-CONFLICT

This was a president elected to get us out of conflict in the Middle East, not to enmesh us even further in a cycle of sectarian conflict and metastasizing warfare. This was a president who said he didn’t oppose all wars, just dumb ones. Is there a conceivably dumber war to intervene in than Syria’s current civil one? I can’t see one.

You can forgive a president once – even though his misguided, counter-productive and destabilizing war in Libya was almost as nuts as this latest foray. But by deciding to arm the Sunni radicals fighting the Shiites in Syria and Lebanon, the president has caved to the usual establishment subjects who still want to run or control the entire world. I don’t buy the small arms qualifier. You know that’s the foot in the door to dragging the United States into the middle of a civil war we do not understand and cannot control. If it has any effect, it will be to draw out the conflict still longer and kill more people. More staggeringly, he is planning to put arms into the hands of forces that are increasingly indistinguishable from hardcore Jihadists and al Qaeda – another brutal betrayal of this country’s interests, and his core campaign promise not to start dumb wars. Yep: he is intending to provide arms to elements close to al Qaeda. This isn’t just unwise; it’s close to insane.

What to do when a president just reverses course like this? It comes after verification that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons against civilians. This is, apparently, the “red line”. Indiscriminate shelling that kills tens of thousands wasn’t enough. Of course, I’m not in any way defending the horrifying use of these weapons against civilians – but I am asking what on earth is the American national interest in taking sides militarily? I see precisely none. Do we really want to hand over Syria’s chemical arsenal to al Qaeda? Do we really want to pour fuel on the brushfire in the sectarian bloodbath in the larger Middle East? And can you imagine the anger and bitterness against the US that this will entail regardless? We are not just in danger of arming al Qaeda, we are painting a bulls-eye on every city in this country, for some party in that religious struggle to target.

I understand why the Saudis and Jordanians, Sunni bigots and theocrats, want to leverage us into their own sectarian warfare against the Shiites and Alawites. But why should America take sides in such an ancient sectarian conflict? What interest do we possibly have in who wins a Sunni-Shiite war in Arabia?

I hate to say it but this president looks as if he is worse than weak here. He is being dragged around by events and pressures like a rag doll. And this news that we are entering the war with military supplies is provided by Ben Rhodes, not the president. That’s nothing against Ben, but when a president is effectively declaring war, don’t you think he has a duty to tell the American people why and what he intends to achieve?

But nada. You voted twice for Obama? You’re getting the policies of McCain and the Clintons, the candidates he defeated. I wish I could understand this – but, of course, my worry is that the pincer movement of Rice and Power is already pushing us into a war we do not need, and cannot win.

This is worse than a mistake. It’s a betrayal – delivered casually. Maybe he thinks his supporters will treat this declaration of war just as casually. In which case, he’s in for a big surprise.

(Photo: Syrian rebel fighters belonging to the “Martyrs of Maaret al-Numan” battalion leave their position after a range of shootings on June 13, 2013 in the northwestern town of Maaret al-Numan in front of the army base of Wadi Deif, down in the valley. By Daniel Leal-Olivas/AFP/Getty Images)

The Best Of The Dish Today

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Today, we unveiled our gifting program – in time for Father’s Day, but for a long time after that. My pitch is here.

I argued for a one-pill anti-HIV prophylaxis to be routine care for HIV-negative sexually active gay men, and over the counter if necessary, while wondering why the gay civil rights movement has to be named after a town in Croatia, LGBT.

Glenn Greenwald has some ‘splaining to do after holes emerged in Snowden’s story while Roger Ailes bemoaned the state of Americans’ historical knowledge as he hired a pundit who didn’t know who Paul Revere was or what he did. Yes, she’s baaaack!

The most popular post of the day remained my take on the new Pope’s latest off-the-cuff Christianity (it’s so great to have a Pope who isn’t positively creepy); and my take on the Pew poll of bisexuals, and a few others.

Give your dad the gift of the Dish for Father’s Day and I’ll see you in the morning when, inshallah, I will be back in the English countryside to visit my family for a few days.

How Can We Convey Mass Killings?

dish_onemillionbones

Last weekend, volunteers laid handmade replicas of 1,018,260 human bones across the National Mall:

The visually impactful piece features one million bone-shaped structures that are made out of clay, plaster, paper, and other sculpting materials as a symbolic mass grave, referencing the lives that have been lost at the hand of violent atrocities. The project, led by artist Naomi Natale, is a collaborative effort amongst artists, activists, and students from around the globe. Thousands of volunteers have made it possible and the project proudly states that “over 250,000 people in all 50 states and the District of Colombia as well as over 30 countries have participated.”

From a recent interview with the artist:

[W]e’ve gotten a lot of pushback because it’s ultimately pretty out there to have kids making bones to address such an intense issue. But when we were able to explain the project to educators, walk them through it, and talk them through how these bones are ultimately about why we should take care of each other, they were able to embrace it. It’s very provocative, having a lot of children ultimately creating a mass grave on the National Mall. But it sends a message that’s much higher than that.

(Photo: Fred Dunn / Flickr)