Michael Kelley touts the work of researcher Liz O’Bagy, a lobbyist for the rebels:
O’Bagy estimates that supporters of Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIS — the two main al Qaeda-linked groups — probably involve about 5,000 to 7,000 fighters while the number of rebels participating in offensive operations is about 80-100,000 rebels. So a subset of Syrian rebels are certainly linked to al Qaeda, but terrorists only make up about 10% to (at the very most most) 20% of the opposition.
The idea that we should accept as fact these self-serving notions is preposterous. We really shouldn’t be Chalabied again. Judis puts it more dispassionately:
Is the administration right about rebels? Or has it changed its line to accord better with the case it wants to make for military action in Syria? One cannot answer this question definitively. Reporters and independent researchers have very limited access to Syria; and the situation on the ground continues to shift. When I asked Yezid Sayigh, who is a senior associate with the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, about the relative strength of the moderates and extremists, he said, “None of us really knows, not us outsiders and not most Syrians.” But this much can be said: There is at least as good evidence against the administration’s claim of rising moderation as there is for it.
