A Russian Ultimatum?

Russia is allegedly pressuring Ukrainian soldiers in Crimea to surrender:

Ukrainian defence sources have accused Russia’s military of demanding the surrender of their forces in Crimea. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet chief Aleksander Vitko threatened a full assault if they did not surrender by dawn on Tuesday, the sources said. However, Interfax news agency later quoted a Russian spokesman denying that any ultimatum had been issued.

Daniel Berman analyzes the reports:

I make use of the term “supposed” before the ultimatum, as the Russian Foreign Ministry has claimed no such ultimatum has been issued, though they appear to be quibbling more over the use of the word “ultimatum” than its content. As for why Russia issued the ultimatum, the answer is simple. Russia is operating on a schedule.

Regardless of warnings of World War III or a new Cold War, the current conflict will end in a “negotiated” settlement which will in reality ratify the actual situation on the ground. It will ostensibly be an agreement between the Ukrainian government and Moscow, but will in reality be reached between the United States and Russia and imposed on the Ukrainians.

Russia’s interests are in ensuring that when the time comes to sit down and work out the terms of such an agreement, they are in a position to achieve all of their political objectives. As one of their key objectives is to retain control of the Crimea, either de facto or de jure, it is vitally important that no military forces loyal to Kiev remain in the Peninsula when the game of military musical chairs stop.

But the Ukrainian troops don’t seem to be backing down. In one dramatic example, the Guardian shares an exchange between a Ukrainian marine and a Russian general. The Ukrainian:

“From my childhood I have lived right next to Russia, we have always looked at Russia like an older brother or a helper, and we always were thrilled by your courage in different wars and operations, and saw you as a defender and expected help in any situation. Nobody could have imagined that such an awful time would have come to our country, but in our weakest moment, you have decided to do this. Do you not think your current behaviour will ruin not only our country but yours?”

The general responds with a long answer about Russia’s greatness, which culminates in an ode to the Winter Olympics, held last month in Sochi. “The international community trusted Russia to hold the Olympic Games, and not every country in the world is trusted with something like that,” he says

Christopher Miller, editor of the English-language newspaper Kyiv Post, backed up the above tweet with another: