Are Americans Done Defending Israel?

Michael Cohen posits that unwavering support for Israel won’t be a shibboleth of American Jews (or Democrats) for much longer, as the two countries’ interests continue to diverge:

For Republicans, unquestioning backing for the Jewish state is a reflection of the strong support among conservative American evangelical Christians for Israel — rather than a political move to steal away votes from American Jews, who continue to uniformly sway Democratic. But even among American Jews, new cracks are visible. Support for Israel’s policies vis-à-vis the Palestinians is exceedingly low; fewer than half of American Jews see Israel as sincere in its desire to make peace. Among younger, secular Jews, support for Israel as an essential element of their Jewish identity is far less than that among older and religious Jews. It’s a reflection of the growing and pervasive generational divide in the community …

As Israel becomes more nationalistic, more religious, and more defensive in its attitudes toward the occupation, it is hard to see an increasingly secular, liberal, American Jewish community responding with unqualified backing. And for national Democrats, the need to be seen as a steadfast ally of Israel may no longer be so politically important.

Well maybe not if you’re Bill DeBlasio. Koplow is also skeptical:

First, while Obama and Bibi have long been and likely always will be at odds, this duo only has two more years to go, and that means that the relationship can be reset in a heartbeat.

The low point of the George H.W. Bush and Yitzhak Shamir pairing was followed by the apex brought about by Bill Clinton and Yitzhak Rabin, so I am reluctant to predict any longterm trends based on the two men currently in office. If Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden end up winning the White House in 2016, their track records and both public and private comments indicate that the relationship with Israel will improve irrespective of what happens with settlements and the peace process, and that goes double for any Republican not named Rand Paul. …

Second, while it is absolutely true that support for Israeli policies among younger American Jews seems to be on the decline, the jury is out as to whether that support will increase as younger American Jews get older, and more saliently there is a question as to whether support for Israeli policies directly overlaps with support for Israel more generally. Furthermore, none of this may matter anyway if support for Israel among the general public remains strong, or if within the Democratic Party there is a gap between grassroots progressives and elite policymakers and opinion leaders.

I think Koplow is wrong with his “in a heartbeat” comment. What has emerged these past few years has been an Israeli government openly contemptuous of the US president and US interests. And that contempt springs from the clout that the settler movement – and the Greater Israel dream – has on the Israeli polity. This is not, in other words, about two individuals’ chemistry or lack of it. It’s about a structural shift in Israel and America.

Israel is increasingly a religious society, defined by a hostility to Islam, and a loathing of Arabs almost as intense as many Arabs’ loathing for Israelis. America is a country increasingly dedicated to religious pluralism, and yearning for a way out of the Middle East after Iraq. The Cold War paradigm that welded the two countries is over; the 9/11 paradigm that aligned identity and interest is also in decline.

My hope is obviously for a two-state solution and the abolition of as many settlements as possible in return for serious security guarantees for the Israelis. But more, my hope is that America and Israel can begin to have a normal relationship of two countries with differing agendas and priorities but some broadly shared democratic values. And I think the best way to reach that end is to dismantle all aid to Israel along with Egypt. You can’t have a healthy functioning relationship with a dependent. Especially when the dependent doesn’t need the money at all.