[T]his chart largely explains why sky-high unemployment hasn’t produced any real sense of urgency in our political class. It’s because unemployment is high among people who don’t vote and low among people who do. If the stock market were crashing or corporate profits were down, that would be one thing. But unemployment? It’s just not that big a deal.
An alternative view of the charts is that the unemployed are mostly people who’ve done an incredibly poor job of managing their own lives. … In this day and age, it’s simply irresponsible not to finish high school — or at least get a GED. Hell, you’re required by law to go to school through age 16. How hard is it to hang around another year and get that diploma?
Suppose that the economy is showing relatively robust signs of recovery by 2012: not necessarily spectacular rates of growth (in which case, Mr. Obama’s re-election might be almost a sure thing), but G.D.P. growth on the order of 3 or 3.5 percent, and a reasonably significant reduction in unemployment. (Most economists do think that the deal will have some stimulative effect.)
See, this is proof that lower taxes work, I would argue if I were a Republican.
The stimulus — all that government spending — didn’t work. It just increased unemployment. But keeping taxes low worked, and the economy is finally recovering. So why on earth would we want to raise anyone’s taxes now?
Jack Shafer thinks that Julian Assange's arrest will help his image:
Assange's jailing changes the "conversation" from how-dare-he to how-dare-they almost as efficiently as if a deranged vigilante had put a bullet in his brain. Our culture loves to protect and defend "victims," which is what the legal proceedings are turning him into. Overnight, he's becoming an albino Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., writing his letter from jail.
The truth is that there are a lot of people who just don't accept that the President of the United States can want something, fight for it, fight effectively and correctly, and still not get it. If it doesn't happen, it must have been — in Obama's words — a "betrayal." Those people are wrong.
And yet it's awful hard to believe that calling people out on it — his allies, the activists within the Democratic party – will do him any good.
Serwer documents another McCain reversal, this time on the DREAM Act:
Keep in mind, the 2003 version of the bill [that McCain supported] repealed the prohibition on unauthorized immigrants paying in-state tuition rates, provided a six-year path to citizenship, and had no cap. The new version leaves the ban intact, provides a 13-year path to citizenship, and is a onetime deal. But the latter is "amnesty" that can't seem to draw any Republican support!
Today on the Dish, Andrew pegged Obama's tax move as shrewd and McConnell as a sucker. We rounded up the best reax from around the web and Ed Morrissey gathered reaction on the right. Andrew agreed with Clive Crook on what's wrong with the left on taxes, and the rest of the blogosphere conceded the compromise "makes sense if…" everything else falls into place. Greg Sargent honed in on why congress should extend their calendar to repeal DADT, Pareene and Burroway fumed, and Andrew advised a scaled-down temperature for the gay movement. Lyle Denniston decoded the logic in yesterday's Prop 8 arguments, Timothy Kincaid was optimistic, and Illinois state senator Ricky Hendon hated the hypocrisy.
Andrew prescribed we cutoff aid to Israel, after Obama threw in the towel on getting them to agree to a settlment moratorium. Israel allowed gay soldiers to serve, but some citizens didn't want to rent to gentiles. Salon envisioned scenarios for an American collapse, Obama finally exercised his pardon powers, Iran can't control Iraq, and Afghans don't enjoy being bombed. We collected the web's best on Assange's arrest, Clay Shirky straddled the fence on Wikileaks, Weigel differentiated on different document dumps, and Ron Paul nailed truth vs. treason on the head. Heather Mac Donald recognized Obama's commitment to American supremacy in attacking Assange, and Andrew charted Assange's rise to underground hero status.
The Weekly Standard profiled an actual government conservative (and his medical marijuana use), Breitbart played the victim card, and Domenico Montanaro fact-checked Halperin's hackery. Neocons feared nihilism, and TNC put the world's prison population in perspective. Allahpundit honed in on Huckabee, and Ed Kilgore looked at him from the Dems' side of the aisle. James Fallows saluted Elizabeth Edwards, who passed away today. Traffic cameras raise money but don't stop accidents, and the government can track you in real-time without a court order. Christmas signaled fascism to Andrew, and Chicago remained a good place to get drunk.
Chart of the day here, Andrew's household logic here, email of the day here, Malkin award here, MHB here, Hathos alert here, dissents of the day here, FOTD here, Andrew in DC on Catholics here, VFYW here, VFYW contest winner #27 here, and the VFYW Archive here.
It's been fascinating to watch the left's emotional roller-coaster these past few weeks. It's also been fascinating to watch Obama out-run them, and to observe their responses to the final deal in the last 24 hours. Krugman has gone from "Let's Not Make A Deal" to "better than what I expected." The response from the far-right has also been illuminating. Drudge rushed to declare Obama's payroll tax cut as a Republican idea. Hinderaker below insists "Obama has admitted that the Republicans were right all along." Notice something about all of this? They all now realize that Obama has been a little shrewder than they took him to be.
Substantively, the Dish is in some ways horrified that the result of the last election – which was dominated by the view that deficits need to be controlled and that new stimulus is evil – turned out to be … a new bipartisan stimulus package financed by borrowing! At the same time, it's clear that this also clears the stage for a two-year fight over long-term fiscal balance, distinct from the short-term need to recover from recession. And that is the best context for serious reform. If we reform the tax code, and cut entitlements and defense, we should do so for structural, long-term reasons, not in response to a particular crisis. That's the chance we now have, if Obama leads the way (as I suspect he will).
And notice that Obama has secured – with Republican backing – a big new stimulus that will almost certainly goose growth and lower unemployment as he moves toward re-election. If growth accelerates, none of the current political jockeying and Halperin-style hyper-ventilation will matter. Obama will benefit – thanks, in part, to Republican dogma. So here's something the liberal base can chew on if they need some grist: how cool is it that Mitch McConnell just made Barack Obama's re-election more likely? Bet you didn't see that one coming, did you?
The mix of policies is also shrewd from a strategic point of view.
At some point, I suspect, the Congress will have to decide between extending the payroll tax holiday or keeping the Bush tax cuts for millionaires – the double-track of the current Keynesian deal. I think Obama wins on that one, and has set up the kind of future choice the GOP really doesn't want to make. What he has done, in other words, is avoid an all-out fight over short-term taxes and spending now in the wake of a big GOP victory in order to set up the real debate about long-term taxes and spending over the next two years, leading into a pivotal 2012 election that could set the fiscal and political direction of this country for decades, an election in which he may well have much more of an advantage than he does now.
This is the difference between tactics and strategy. The GOP has won again on tactics, but keeps losing on strategy. More broadly, as this sinks in, Obama's ownership of this deal will help restore the sense that he is in command of events, and has shifted to the center (even though he is steadily advancing center-left goals). It's already being touted as "triangulation" by some on the right even as it contains major liberal faves – unemployment insurance for another 13 months, EITC expansion, college tax credits, and a pay-roll tax cut.
My view is that if this deal is a harbinger for the negotiation Obama will continue with the GOP for the next two years, he will come into his own.
The more his liberal base attacks him, the more the center will take a second look. And look how instantly the GOP's position has shifted. They have suddenly gone from pure oppositionism to dealing with the dreaded commie Muslim alien, thereby proving he is not what they have made him out to be. The more often we get the GOP to make actual tangible decisions on policy alongside Obama, the less able they will be able to portray him as somehow alien to the country, and the more they will legitimize him. Their House victory means they can no longer sit out there, portraying the country as somehow taken over by radical, alien forces – which they can simply oppose with ever ascending levels of hysteria and rhetoric. And the more practical and detailed and concrete the compromises, the less oxygen blowhards like Palin and Limbaugh will have to breathe.
Now for the short-term benefits of resolving this tax-and-spend dilemma so swiftly. The president urgently needs to get the new START and DADT through the Senate. DADT would be a major boost for his base – and the country's military. Getting START through is critical to his foreign policy cred. If he can pull all this off by Christmas – and the Senate should indeed stay open for an extra week – the last Congress will indeed be viewed by historians as one of the most substantive (and liberal) in recent history. And Obama will have orchestrated it – while ending up firmly planted and rebranded in the center.
Of the 2.3 million people in American jails, 806,000 are black males. African-Americans–males and females–make up .6 percent of the entire world's population, but African-American males–alone–make up 8 percent of the entire world's prison population. I know there are people who think some kind of demon culture could create a world where a group that makes up roughly one in 200 citizens of the world, comprises one in 12 of its prisoners. But I kind of doubt it.
I think that we won the argument. I don’t know if we won the case. If I were to bet on the result, I’d find it likely that Judge Walker’s decision will be upheld by this panel, and possibly with a 3-0 vote.
The Dish 