Good News In Iraq

There increasingly seems as if there is no question that violence of all kinds has subsided in Iraq. There’s no question in my mind that Petraeus has made a difference – but why he has made a difference, what other factors are in play, and what this means for our long-term strategy are all far less clear. Phillip Carter has some sharp thoughts here:

The situation does present a paradox, however. If the surge is the reason, as the generals claim, we’re in trouble, because the surge is about to end. If Iraqi reconciliation and ethnic cleansing get primary credit, and the surge is mostly acting as a catalyst, our inevitable drawdown over the next six months to pre-surge levels may not be catastrophic, because the positive trends result more from Iraqi societal shifts and less from American soldiers brokering the peace. As commanders plan for the 2008 reduction in troops, they must try to reconcile these competing explanations and find a way to sustain the success when there are fewer—or no—American soldiers on the streets.

We may only find out as we withdraw. But my guess is that some neoconservatives will use this success as a reason to continue the occupation indefinitely. And if the Iraqi factions are fine with that, the argument will have more force. The case for empire will expand.

The Jailing Of Journalists

It’s now a year and a half since Bilal Hussein of the AP was detained by the US military as a terror suspect. He has been charged with nothing. But he is still detained. Sami al-Haj, a cameraman for al Jazeera, has been in Gitmo for six years on similar grounds – and again without any charge being brought against him. Guilty until proven innocent by Sean Hannity seems to be the new standard of American justice in this war – and it’s particularly dangerous when the government is empowered to arrest and indefinitely detain journalists without due process of any kind. Glenn Greenwald helps keep these cases alive.

America The Unfriendly, Ctd.

It may be worth noting that all the examples of brutal treatment I’ve aired on the Dish are occurring with respect to legal immigrants or tourists at airports. The trouble with the current immigration debate is that the anger at unrestricted illegal immigration across the Mexican border has been diverted in many cases to the legal immigrants who are actually trying to play by the rules and who bear the brunt of popular frustration. There is a huge difference between a gay couple trying legally to fly to and from, say, Europe and the thousands of illegal immigrants coming in illegally from Mexico. The same goes for all the H1 visas, or artistic or cultural exchanges which are also under siege. So the Dobbs rage often does nothing actually to stop the big illegal flow, while adding to the incredible frustrations, cruelties and indignities of legal immigrants or tourists or temporary visitors. I guess you take your anger out on those you can. But it is a form of anger; and it is affecting the image of the US; and it is preventing the good sort of legal immigrant from even trying.

The Philly Debate and the Polls

Why no effect on Clinton’s national numbers? Mark Blumenthal explains. For my part, I’m just relieved that the real Hillary Clinton is now at least being debated. If Democrats want to nominate the most divisive, partisan and calculating candidate, the one least likely to win over independents, they’re welcome to. But with eyes open, please.