How Reliable Is Sitemeter?

I was interested, but more than a little confused, by the recent bloggy discussion of sitemeter stats and the burning question of whether Daily Kos’s traffic is over-estimated, or not. My take over the years has been to see the data as somewhat dicey – rough at best. But I didn’t realize quite how rough. I recently re-upped my subscription to Sitemeter and paid more money for more stats. Immediately, the balance between "visits" and "pageviews" shifted, with a pretty similar pageview count but a marked drop in visits as a proportion. More interestingly, the visit length increased dramatically as well – and now it tells me that the average visit length to the Dish is almost four minutes – far more than it once was and far more than most other blogs in its category. (To give a comparison, my average visit length is given as 3:58; Glenn’s is 0.05; Powerline is 0.03; Kos is 0.22.) I can see why my average visit length would be higher than a quick-link site like Glenn’s, but not that much longer. And I don’t think a big shift with my new subscription was coincidental. The data from the Atlantic’s measurements show no such change at all. So what gives?

My assumption has always been that these figures are pretty shaky. At best, I thought I could rely on them for some internally consistent numbers over time – a very rough gauge of progress. Now I’m not even sure about that. Any thoughts?

Looking For Another Earth

Scientists are finally honing their searches:

Writing in the US journal Science, astronomers from six major centres, including Nasa, Harvard and the University of Colorado, outline how advances in technology suggest scientists are on the verge of being able to detect the presence of small, rocky planets, much like our own, around distant stars for the first time. The planets are considered the most likely havens for extraterrestrial life.

One technique relies on observing the shift in light coming from a star as a planet swings around it. Until recently, this "radial velocity" method has only been sensitive enough to pick up planets far more massive than Earth, but improvements now make the discovery of a second Earth highly likely, said Dave Latham, a co-author on the paper at the Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics.

"It could happen almost any time now. We have the technological capability to identify Earth-like planets around the smallest stars even now," he said.

(Hat tip: 3QD.)

A Young Tory Surge

British politics hasn’t been this exciting for over a decade. In two weeks, the parties have switched positions in the polls and the Conservatives have their biggest lead over Labour in 15 years. Labour hated Blair by the end of his tenure; but they’re beginning to realize why they put up with him for so long. Some Blairites are already stirring things up for Brown. William Rees-Mogg surveys the new – and young – Tory team:

This young group of Cameron, Hague, Osborne, Fox, Gove and Johnson – there are others of promise – are individually more than a match for the Labour ministers they shadow. I find them impressive; they have real political talents; several of them, particularly Mr Gove and Mr Cameron himself, are natural speakers.

They are people of serious political beliefs. They share a liberal-conservatism that reminds me of Keith Joseph and Edward Boyle. Their average age is still only 42; they have the prospect of four full parliaments ahead. I cannot remember a time since the early 1960s when any party had as strong a core of young talents in Parliament.

David Cameron is five years younger than Barack Obama. If an election were held today, he’d be prime minister. No one running, by the way, is related by blood or marriage to any previous prime minister. No one’s wife is running to inherit the country. But, hey, Britain is a mature meritocracy.

Terror’s Advocate

I watched Barbet Schroeder’s new documentary on Jacques Verges over the weekend. If you enjoy watching films that do not insult the intelligence and have a clear moral backbone without engaging in moral grandstanding, you’ll get a lot out of this film. Verges – adored by many of the interviewees – emerges as a monster of a kind – a proud supporter of the murder of innocents for political purposes. The film doesn’t flinch from this – and the horrifying calm of Verges as he responds to questions about his close connections to former Nazis and the international terrorist, Carlos, is the riveting performance of a sociopath.

But what it also reveals is that terrorism itself – especially in its modern variety – is rooted in the deepest sense of indignity and dishonor that afflicts many cultures reduced to servility by colonialism or indigenous pathologies. Verges’ profound anger from growing up in the developing world and righteous resistance to the French occupation of Algeria fuels his career of defending evil in the courtroom. You can see in this movie how violence begets more violence, how evil propels more evil, and how easy it is in advancing a cause to become morally corrupted by anger. A legal defense of terrorists is necessary; but a defense that also celebrates the guilty is one that tips over into evil as well. In our current war, we have to somehow retain a balance between acknowledging the evil of the enemy, while never losing sight of our own moral vulnerability as well. This requires constant self-assessment and unending self-awareness. It’s not easy. And this film reminds us of how hard it is.

Why Professors are Scruffy

Legal Theory Blog explains it all for you:

The reason why analytic philosophers (and similarly mathematicians and cognitive scientists) have a difficult time dressing themselves or dress poorly is that the satisfaction of any sentence involving the "goes with" relation is not finitely decidable. There is no algorithm by which one can in a finite amount of time, much less in the morning before you are too late for class, decide with deductive certainty whether an outfit is sharp and properly accessorized. Now, there are rules which by which we can rule out entire classes of ordered pairs, e.g., let x be a member of the class of checked clothing and y be a member of the class of striped clothing, it is fairly trivial to show that for all such x and all such y, Gxy must be false (I leave it as an exercise to the reader to provide a proof). But for the general case there is no finitely executable decision procedure such that for any two arbitrary articles of clothing one may determine the satisfaction of G.

(Hat tip: Harry.)

Sistani On Blackwater

The Shiite power-broker vents:

"The foreign security companies working in Iraq belittle innocent Iraqi citizens. The occupying forces do the same in some of their operations, adding to the criminal acts of the takfiris [Sunni militants]."

Here’s a reminder of how clued in our commander-in-chief has been on the subject:

(Hat tip: Juan Cole and Greg Djerejian.)

Tackling Cheney

It’s so easy to talk to him about something he doesn’t want to hear:

Bartlett recalled: "The Cheneys aren’t into small talk… So finally I said… ‘I just wanted to raise a couple issues.’ Kind of got out some perfunctory stuff — ‘you’re going to be going here, you’re going to be doing that.’ And he was just kind of nodding at me. And I said, ‘There is one issue we need to talk about. We had heard that maybe, you know, that your daughter was going to join the campaign trail, going to be on the campaign trail with you. I just want to let you know — perfectly fine, but I just want you to know that the press is going to really focus on this, they’re going to maybe intrude more into your lives than you may be prepared [for]. Well, I just wanted to put that on the table for you.’

"And the vice president looks at me," Bartlett said and, in a decent Cheney impersonation, quoted him: " ‘We won’t be talking about my daughter.’ I said, ‘Okaaay, thank you very much.’"

You begin to realize why no one was able to point out that there was an insurgency in Iraq for a little over three years.