Texas’s 22nd Congressional District Wakes Up

by Alex Massie

Oh no! We've been rumbled!

The victory in the 22nd Congressional District yesterday by LaRouche Democrat Kesha Rogers sent an unmistakable message to the White House, and its British imperial controllers: Your days are numbered. Kesha's campaign hit relentlessly at a single theme, that President Obama must go, that his attacks on this nation – with his dismantling of the manned space program, his efforts to ram through a fascist, killer “health care” policy, his endless bailouts for Wall Street swindlers, while demanding budget cuts which will increase the death rates among the poor, the sick, the elderly and the unemployed – are not acceptable, and will not be tolerated.

Skeptics said that LaRouche's approach is impractical, it won't work, that Democrats will never support someone who is calling for the President's impeachment. Obviously, the voters of the 22nd district disagreed with those skeptics, as Kesha received 53% of the vote against two opponents. As Kesha told the Galveston Daily News last night, when a reporter asked if she expected support from the Democratic Party in the fall election, “I am leading a war against the British Empire. I'm not worried about what Democratic Party hacks say or do.”

I assume that Obama's "Kenyan birth" is further evidence that he's actually an MI6 mole.

The only other people, I think, who still believe in the Empire are some of the kookier elements within the Iranian regime for whom the United States is always being manipulated by the dastardly Machiavellians at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office. Clearly, now that Democrats in Texas's 22nd Congressional District have woken up our days are numbered. But, hey, we had a fine run and it was good while it lasted…

What other countries are still running? Nominations to alexmassieATgmail.com

[Via Yglesias]

Playing Nice With Iran

by Patrick Appel

Frum attended a debate on Iran between Michael Ledeen and Flynt Leverett:

[Leverett] acknowledges past attempts at engagement – but those attempts narrowly focused on some specific tactical issue. Leverett claims Iranians have in fact cooperated on the issue on which engagement was sought. They thought by doing so they might prompt us to rethink our willingness to live with the Islamic republic. The historical record: typically its the American administration that pulls the plug on tactical cooperation, either because of domestic political blowback or in reaction to some other Iranian provocation unrelated to the area of cooperation. Leverett claims this is what happened in 2002: The Iranians were helpful on Afghanistan – their reward was to be labeled part of the axis of evil – and to see Afghan cooperation cut off.  Leverett argues that no president has ever proposed a “grand bargain.”  He asserts that Iranians would accept such a bargain – but his evidence for this proposition is lacking.

Full transcript of the debate here. Michael Ledeen's outlook is that every "American president has eventually come to the conclusion that we could make a grand bargain with Iran and has tried to do it." Ledeen:

What has changed?  Why would you think you could get a deal today when you couldn’t get a deal for 31 years?  I mean, surely none of us – even though everybody in Washington is famously egotistical – I doubt that anybody here thinks that he or she is more brilliant, more profound, more talented and so forth than all of the people who, for the past last 31 years, have tried to do this.

So why?  That’s my rhetorical question to the people who only want to engage or negotiate or try to strike a deal.  And, as I say, I’m not opposed to trying to strike a deal.  And if you can get one, god bless you.  I’m pessimistic.

Looking Back

by Jonathan Bernstein

Virtually everyone who supports health care reform, and I think Washington conventional wisdom in general, now blames Barack Obama, Harry Reid, Max Baucus, and the Democratic Party in general for taking too long to finish it off last year.   I don't think that's entirely wrong, but I do think it's massively overstated.  For example, Marc Ambinder says that part of what he considers a "perfect storm" that prevented health care reform from passing to date was "an elongated process [and] weak leadership from the White House."

There are really three issues here.  First, how long would a quick process take?  Second, was the Gang of Six a pointless delay, or a successful tactic?  Third, when did the Democrats have 60 votes?

On the first part, I think it's just wishful thinking to believe that the Democrats could have put a bill on the floor of the Senate before August recess.  The House, which had no supermajority rules constraints, wasn't ready before August recess. The final House committee reported the bill out just before the break.  Realistically, it would take a minimum (barring emergency conditions, which do not apply here) of three weeks for the House to merge the bills, get a CBO score, get a rule, and complete floor action.  The Senate would take longer.  While people did note that the president's original schedule had slipped by then, I'm aware of no reporting that attributed the delay to anything other than how long it took for Democrats themselves to reach a deal.  So let's say that, without the Gang of Six, both House and Senate might have been ready to act immediately after the August recess (had they finished all committee work before the recess and then used August to merge the bills and ready them for floor action). 

The Gang of Six drama seemed to last forever, but in fact it was essentially just a two month delay, with Max Baucus producing a bill to take to committee on September 16.  Now, I continue to believe the delay was (deliberately or not) a very successful strategy; I think marginal Democrats are desperate for cover from attacks that they are partisan liberal Democrats, and the Gang of Six functioned to demonstrate that Democrats were trying hard to reach a partisan deal, and so it wasn't their fault that Republicans rejected them.  So I think it was two months well-spent.  I could be wrong…but at any rate, it was two months. 

Sort of.  I said above that there was no chance to bring the bill to the Senate floor before August recess.  But they also couldn't have moved forward in the first half of September.  Ted Kennedy died on August 25, and Paul Kirk was not sworn in until September 24.  Indeed, given the Al Franken delay (sworn in July 7) and Kennedy's illness, it's not clear whether the Democrats could ever have counted on having 60 votes at any point before September 24. 

The actual vote on the motion to proceed to the bill was on November 21, just before Thanksgiving.  So, the entire delay that we're talking about here is just under two months. 

I do think that once the Democrats knew the Massachusetts timeline, they should have pushed to get the bill done just a little bit quicker, worked through the winter break, and produced a final House/Senate compromise that could have been ready to go to both Houses of Congress in the first or second week of January.  By then, Harry Reid knew about the Massachusetts election, and given how close they were anyway he should have used that deadline to force quicker action.  As far as I can tell, the Democrats did not try particularly hard to move quickly after the Finance Committee markup ended, and I think that was a mistake.

But the rest of it?  There was no way for them to know back in July that mid-January was going to be a deadline.  There's no way at all for us to know if Ben Nelson, Joe Lieberman, and the rest would have signed on to a bill that really would have been rammed through by a partisan process in late September.  And this entire perspective overlooks how difficult it was always going to be to find a compromise that all sixty Senators (and a majority of the House) could live with.  No, it didn't require a perfect storm to stop health care reform — it took quite a bit of skill to get reform as far is it did get last year, and the White House and Congressional leaders deserve credit for it. 

Christianist Watch

by Chris Bodenner

"If the counsel of the Judeo-Christian tradition had been followed, Tillikum [the killer whale] would have been put out of everyone's misery back in 1991 and would not have had the opportunity to claim two more human lives. Says the ancient civil code of Israel, "When an ox gores a man or woman to death, the ox shall be stoned, and its flesh shall not be eaten, but the owner shall not be liable." (Exodus 21:28) … But, the Scripture soberly warns, if one of your animals kills a second time because you didn't kill it after it claimed its first human victim, this time you die right along with your animal," – Bryan Fischer, director of Issue Analysis for the American Family Association. Perhaps he is consulting with the Japanese.

John Adams And The “Gitmo Nine” Ctd

by Chris Bodenner

Mike Potemra makes a valid point:

But there is also a very serious policy dispute here, about how our government should treat those accused of terrorism. If Justice Department nominees have a view on that that is highly controversial, this is a perfectly legitimate area of inquiry. Even the issue of potential conflict of interest can be raised, without its being an instance of mere guilt by association. Look at it as analogous to the case of a former lawyer for polluters being hired by the EPA: His prior work is not prima facie evidence that he wants to act as a covert agent for polluters in his new job, but it is not illegitimate or unreasonable to ask what his personal views on the issue are, and what that means for his work at the EPA. I have a visceral distaste for the complex of attitudes that are referred to by the shorthand term “McCarthyism.” But sometimes tough, pointed political questions can be not McCarthyism, but a legitimate call for transparency.

Senator Grassley's request for names – which were just uncovered by Fox News – may indeed be a good-faith demand for transparency. As Adam Serwer notes:

[Grassley] argued that "this prior representation creates a conflict-of-interest problem for these individuals." Holder said he would consider Grassley's request and assured him that "we're very sensitive to that concern and mindful of it, and people who should not participate in certain decisions do not do so."

So getting those names could ensure that Holder sticks to that standard. Nevertheless, Grassley's rhetoric is still a far cry from the disgusting insinuations of Liz Cheney, the Washington Times, and Potemra's colleague, Andy McCarthy. Now that they have their names, what next?

The Re-Design, Ctd

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By Andrew Sullivan

Just a note to say thanks to the tech team who have so swiftly restored those small but critical details that have helped restore the Dish's readability to almost back to normal. It's amazing what font-coherence can do, no?

There are still a few small things to adjust and fix to improve reader usability, but your helpful response (about as frustrated as mine) was greeted with pretty amazing action from the small and massively over-worked redesign team. I want to thank them personally – and you too. It was a great example of how readers and designers can operate collaboratively in a matter of days – something that the web can do that no other medium can. So thanks again.

(Image from Graphic Design Blog.)

What would Improve Political Debates? Actual Debating!

by Alex Massie

More on the "exciting" debates between Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg (the leader of the Liberal Democrats who, though in no position to become Prime Minister has to be included) that are, inevitably, going to become the most "important" moments in this year's election campaign. As I suggested earlier, these are problematic for all sorts of reasons, not the least of which is that they won't be debates at all – at least not in the sense that anyone who's ever taken part in any real debating would understand the term.

Mr Eugenides puts it well:

What's ironic about this is that in the debating I know, it's usually the quality of a team's arguments that wins the day, not their style. Beyond a certain level of competence, everyone in the final of the Oxford Union intervarsity (say) is assumed to be confident, quick on their feet, at ease in front of an audience.

Sure, delivery matters, but when it comes to deciding who has won, the main focus of judges' discussions is the debaters' content. What did he say? Did he give any evidence for that claim? Did he explain that clearly, and was I convinced? These are the things that "real" debating hinges on, more often than not. So it's somewhat depressing to note that in these three "debates", the criteria for success will be almost exactly the opposite. Sod what the guy says; was that sweat I saw on his upper lip?

The second big issue in these debates is the media narrative, and this is where the expectations game kicks into play. Candidates will routinely build up their opponent as the love child of Winston Churchill and Cicero, possessed of oratorical gifts that would make Martin Luther King weep with envy. Anything short of a physical assault on the other candidates will be hailed as a "draw", at the very least and, given expectations, any kind of draw hailed as a "win".

Labour spinners will try to make a virtue of their man's misanthropic, malevolent awkwardness, suggesting that Cameron is nothing more than a suit and a haircut. They will massage expectations down so low that any sort of coherent performance will be trumpeted as an extraordinary coup, as if Brown was an orangutan that had been shipped by crate from Borneo and taught to speak English only last Tuesday.

But this is all the fault of the format. There will be no cheering from the cheap seats, no back and forth, no direct interrogation of the other candidates, nothing but the dreary recitation of policy positions so tired and familiar and hackneyed that we're all more than sick of them already. No wonder they're likely (one could be wrong about this) to prove a massive, crushing disappointment.

Outwardly and publicly all the candidates and certainly the TV companies will promise an exciting in-depth discussion of the "issues" but since Gordon and Dave and wee Nicky are pretty familiar with answering the questions they're likely to receive in the debates it's hardly likely that there will be any substantive revelations, nor any interesting insight into how they actually think or approach problems or see the world. No wonder the contest becomes a kind of beauty pageant in which the only marks that count are those awarded for style.

Within the limitations of the genre there's not really any satisfactory way of avoiding this. So change the rules and, rather than having the debates be little more than a souped up version of Radio 4's Today programme, why not make them actual, you know, debates?

There's a real appetite for this sort of thing. Pick a good motion and attract some competent speakers and you can fill a large hall in London pretty quicky. Debating is actually back in style and not simply a jolly undergraduate wheeze.

Since we're flying with pigs here, let's imagine a situation (and this would be equally applicable in the US too) in which the rival candiates – Brown and Cameron in this instance – were given 15 minutes notice of the motion for debate. Each would iuse that time to think of their arguments before in turn delivering a ten minute speech followed by five minute rebuttal speeches and a final two minute summation of the main points. The whole thing would be done in not much more than 40 minutes.

The key, obviously, would be to pick interesting motions that allowed one to see how they actually manage under pressure. A mix of conceptual and factual topics might be best.

It would have been good sport seeing John McCain propose the motion That this House Thinks Brutus Was an Honourable Man or Gordon Brown defending the idea that This House Would Rather Be Keynes than Hayek. Imagine George W Bush proposing that This House Believes the World Has Learnt Nothing from 9/11 or This House Believes in Guns, not God or any politicians arguing a nice, open-ended motion such as This House Believes in the Right to Choose that could be defined in any number of ways.

You get the idea. It's hard to see how this could be worse than the way debates are currently organised.

Granted there are difficulties here too, not the least of which being that it's not obvious that the qualities that make for a good debater* are necessarily those that make for a good Prime Minister or President. Then again, the ability to learn and recite talking points – the chief skill involved in the game as its currently played – doesn't seem obviously useful or illuminating either. 

*Indeed, long experience of the type suggests that the opposite may well be true…

How would you improve these press conferences masquerading as debates? Let me know at alexmassieATgmail.com

The Hurt Locker And The Oscars

by Patrick Appel

Brian Mockenhaup, who served twice in Iraq, didn't enjoy the film:

I expected a movie that would give viewers a real sense of what a minority of Americans have been doing on their behalf these nine years. Instead, I left the theater frustrated and disappointed. To its credit, The Hurt Locker, unlike many of the War on Terror films so far, doesn't spoon-feed political messages. But Bigelow and screenwriter Mark Boal have tried so hard to make a great and important film that they transformed their story into caricature.

David Sessions counters. Freddie DeBoer's thoughts:

I think, like the large majority of war movies I've ever seen, it is hampered by a tremendous amount of cliches, and is sort of hokey on the level of character. (The soldier who can only make sense of the world when he's at war is a pretty well played out trope at this point, right?)

Sarah, Ctd

by Chris Bodenner

She is shopping a docudrama with "uber-reality show producer Mark Burnett." Plus, another book:

Her new work will "include selections from classic and contemporary readings that have inspired her, as well as portraits of some of the extraordinary men and women she admires and who embody her love of country, faith, and family," [HarperCollins'] statement reads.

Brace yourself, Quote Garden.