Is A Russian Annexation Now Inevitable?

Well: it doesn’t take a genius to observe the ballet now being orchestrated by the Kremlin to justify an invasion in Eastern Ukraine, does it? The parallels with Crimea are almost perfect. Along with the cynicism behind them. Bershidsky observes the brazenness with which the Russian government is now openly meddling in the region, with sinister masked men strutting around with impunity. In this war of nerves, Putin is obviously winning, and Kiev is badly behind the ball:

The anti-Kiev forces include heavily armed paramilitaries. Their unmarked uniforms are different from those worn by Russian occupying troops in Crimea last month, but the forces appear well-organized, and in numerous videos of the attacks they do not sound Ukrainian. In fact, they often freely admit that they are Russian. In one video, the man assuming command of local policemen in Gorlovka says he is a lieutenant colonel in the Russian army, and in Slavyansk, the commander of the group that seized the mayor’s office told a reporter for Echo Moskvy radio that he was an entrepreneur from a Moscow suburb.

Although Moscow has not openly admitted that Russians are taking part in inciting the eastern Ukraine protests, they clearly are, whether in an official capacity or as volunteers. And they haven’t been ordered to keep their mouths shut, or have been lax about following their orders.

Putin is huffing his own chauvinism, and you don’t unleash that force in Russia and maintain control over it for long. David Patrikarakos is on the scene in Sloviansk:

These people were entirely different to those I had met in Donetsk and Luhansk, the other Ukranian cities that have recently become sites of pro-Russian violence.

The armed men that form the “self-defense” units here are not just militia carrying bats; they are undoubtedly professionally trained, and though they wear no military insignias, they are clearly soldiers. They carry automatic weapons and wear full army fatigues. They are professional, organized, and ready to fight. …

We are now in a new, and dangerous, phase in this crisis. The previous trouble spots of Luhansk and Donetesk are major cities in Eastern Ukraine, with more organized pro-Russia factions. That the conflict is spreading to small, unimportant towns like Sloviansk is indicative that pro-Russia activism has taken root in the heartlands of the region.

Maria Snegovaya looks at polling contradicting the claim that these uprisings enjoy significant popular support:

According to a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, a majority of Ukrainians—in all regions—condemn the deployment of Russian troops in Ukraine (93 percent of people in the west and center held this opinion, 73 percent in the South, and 68 percent in the East). A study by the International Republican Institute (IRI) found that Russian-speaking Ukrainians in all regions do not experience significant infringement of their rights and actively oppose Russia sending troops to Ukraine to protect them (67 percent in the south and 61 percent in east of Ukraine). Similarly, the majority of respondents in all regions believe the Crimean referendum was a threat to Ukraine’s integrity, support Ukraine’s independence, and the autonomous status of Crimea within Ukrainian borders; 64 percent of Ukrainians support a unitary Ukrainian state, and only 14 percent prefer federalization—a plan to give greater authority to the regions of Ukraine. (Russian media presents a very different picture.) …

Moreover, Putin has fostered pro-European sentiment across all of Ukraine. As a result of Russian aggression, the support for European integration rose by 10 percent to 52 percent from February to March 2014. (It remained constant at 40 percent throughout all of 2013.) Likewise, the number of people supporting participation in Russia’s Custom Union dramatically decreased.

Finally, Motyl points out that Russia’s meddling in Ukraine makes it a state sponsor of terrorism according to US law:

There is overwhelming evidence of Russia’s direct and indirect involvement in the violence that rocked several eastern Ukrainian cities on April 12–13. Russian intelligence agents and spetsnaz special forces are directly involved; the weapons and uniforms worn by the terrorists are of Russian origin (a point made by the US ambassador to Kyiv, Geoffrey Pyatt); and the assaults on government buildings in Slavyansk, Mariupol, Makiivka, Kharkiv, Yenakievo, Druzhkivka, Horlivka, Krasny Lyman, and Kramatorsk were clearly coordinated by Russian intelligence. …

Does the behavior of the pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine involve “premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against non-combatant targets”? Obviously. Does this violence involve “citizens or the territory of more than one country”? Yes, it does. The violence therefore qualifies as international terrorism, and its perpetrators are obviously “terrorist groups.” QED.

The latest Dish on eastern Ukraine here.

Muscle Beyond Russia’s Means?

Daniel Gross points out that Putin’s Ukraine adventure could end up being very costly for Russia:

In 2013, Russia’s economy grew at a meager 1.3 percent rate, down sharply from 3.4 percent in 2012. This year is likely to be no better. In its world Outlook issued [last] week, the International Monetary Fund downgraded its projection for Russian economic growth in 2014, blaming “the lack of more comprehensive structural reforms [that] has led to the erosion in businesses’ and consumers’ confidence.”

But the Crimea situation is making matters much worse.

The World Bank now projects that given a “limited and short-lived impact of the Crimea crisis,” growth could fall to 1.1 percent in 2014. Should things get messier, however, the World Bank warns that Russia’s economy could shrink by 1.8 percent in 2014. Russian officials, the designated cheerleaders for Putin, are even more pessimistic. According to Reuters, Andrei Klepach, the deputy economy minister, now says Russia’s economy could grow at a rate as low as .5 percent in 2014—perilously close to flatlining. “The sheer market uncertainty has brought down Russian expected growth this year from 2.5 percent to .5 percent,” said Anders Aslund, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C. “That is, the Putin aggression against Crimea and Ukraine cost two percent of Gross Domestic Product. (And with a GDP of about $2 trillion, that two percent adds up to $40 billion.)

I wish I could feel confident that the obvious economic disadvantages of re-starting the Russian empire would outweigh the psychic and political boon the new chauvinism must be for Putin. Maybe it will. But what’s motivating the Russian government right now is obviously not a cold-blooded assessment of national economic interests. And there is nothing ever cold-blooded about Russian nationalism.

“This Is God’s Plant”

Matt Melema finds that evangelicals are starting to come around on marijuana:

No one has done a poll of where evangelicals in particular stand on pot, but talking to a dozen or so of them makes me think that the feelings of young evangelicals are shifting as fast as many others of their generation. Given the history of churches decrying marijuana as a “demon weed” which could threaten society, the new attitude represents a generational divide.

weeed1.jpgAnd, increasingly, churches and leading Christian groups aren’t trying to stop this. In the 2006 election, Focus on the Family, then led by culture war veteran James Dobson, was a major force in the anti-marijuana campaign, making large donations and publicly opposing it. By 2012, the younger Jim Daly had replaced Dobson, and Focus mostly stood to the side during the election, contributing a mere $25,000.

Daly has started building relationships with everyone from progressive newspapers to gay activists to Bono. This new approach is reflected in his attitude toward marijuana. He is against legalizing recreational marijuana. But he may be more open toward medical marijuana, remarking that there could be “some medical benefits derived from it.”

What I found most striking in the piece was this from a profile of the Stanleys in OnFaith:

“Satan didn’t create this plant,” says Jesse [Stanley]. “Satan doesn’t create anything. This is God’s plant. And God is moving in the hearts of men and women and children around the world about this plant in ways that I never would’ve imagined five years ago.”

What Stanley is referring to is the potential of the plant to alleviate pain and suffering in ways no prescription drug can. And I do think that the experience of medical marijuana has shifted this debate perhaps more deeply than we truly understand. If you have watched marijuana keep another human being alive and nourished in the worst throes of AIDS, as I have, and then watched them get their life back, it changes you. If you have ever met a child with seizures who, thanks to this plant, can begin to construct a calmer, saner life, it will affect you deeply. To call a plant that can do this a “demon weed” simply becomes nonsensical.

But what’s interesting is how this discovery also leads inexorably to a different approach to responsible, recreational marijuana use.

There is a reason the plant has, throughout the aeons of human history, been related to religion and spirituality. There’s a reason that it’s a sacrament in Rastafarianism. Countless people testify to spiritual insights, intellectual breakthroughs and emotional healing through use of the plant. For many, it works on the human brain very differently than alcohol. For some, it allows for calmer thought, or a heightened aesthetic sense, or just relief from the ordeal of consciousness that speaks to the soul more deeply than many other drugs, barring, of course, other psychotropic, like psilocybin or Ketamine. Of course, this is not a substitute for prayer, or meditation, or doctrine. But it can jog people toward a deeper appreciation of the world, its beauty and its goodness. It acts as a cultural check on the frantic, over-sharing, constantly-updating, overwhelmed life so many of us now share. It has a religious and spiritual aspect that cannot be denied – even as it has been smothered by Cheech and Chong and Seth Rogen (peace be upon him).

It will indeed be a marvel if members of organized religion begin to shift their attitudes to this drug. But, the more you think about it, it shouldn’t surprise. We may well be under-estimating the cultural impact of widespread and legal marijuana use. The human mind is a beautiful thing. And when it unfolds a little, a little more may be possible for the enrichment of our lives

The Sticker-Price On Obamacare Goes Down

Yesterday, the CBO estimated (pdf) that the ACA will be cheaper than originally projected:

Obamacare Cost

Cohn explains why costs have decreased:

The higher the premiums, the more expensive the subsidies. And that’s where the law has, so far, outperformed expectations. Insurers are offering plans with lower premiums than CBO and other experts had predicted. As a result, the federal government is on the hook for less financial assistance.

Better still, the CBO says that it doesn’t expect across-the-board premium spikes next year, as the law’s critics and even some insurance company officials have speculated would happen. Of course, the CBO could be totally wrong about that. And even if it’s not wrong about what’s likely to happen to premiums overall, it’s possible—I’d say likely—that prices in some parts of the country will go up significantly next year. But CBO’s new projections would put such rate increases into better, more favorable perspective. Premiums are already lower than expected. The law is already reducing the deficit by more than expected. So even if premiums rise next year or beyond, the law could still end up calling for lower spending—and more deficit reduction—than the original projections suggested.

Drum makes an important counterpoint:

The bad news: the lower cost of premiums is primarily because the quality of the plans coming from insurers is lower than CBO originally estimated: “The plans being offered through exchanges in 2014 appear to have, in general, lower payment rates for providers, narrower networks of providers, and tighter management of their subscribers’ use of health care than employment-based plans do. Those features allow insurers that offer plans through the exchanges to charge lower premiums (although they also make plans somewhat less attractive to potential enrollees).”

McArdle weighs in:

The good news is that [shrinking provider networks] keeps premiums low. The bad news is that, over time, the CBO doesn’t think this will be sustainable. As more people exit the employer-based market for the exchanges, insurers will have to broaden their networks; they just can’t serve that number of customers with the networks they have, and if they try to keep the networks small, regulators will probably have something to say.

It’s worth noting, as I always do, that the CBO is required to assume that the current law will go into effect: that the employer mandate and the individual mandate are enforced, all the delayed provisions are allowed to take effect, the grandfathering ends. It’s also worth noting, as I always do, that the CBO does not have a crystal ball: We’ve never done anything like this before, so it is necessarily trying to reason from situations that aren’t necessarily great analogies for what we’re doing now. This is no slam on the office; it’s doing the best it can. But its projections may differ significantly from what actually happens.

Is Camp 7 Camp No?

Yesterday, I assumed that the top-secret camp at Gitmo called Camp 7 was the same as the top-secret Camp No or “Penny Lane”, of the Gitmo “suicides” infamy. And that conflation is floating around the Interwebs. But it’s almost certainly wrong. Camp No is widely believed to be run by the CIA, and to have ceased major operations around 2006, while Camp 7 is run by the Pentagon, and used to house some of the most infamous terror suspects. There’s so much secrecy about both camps it can get confusing. I hope this clears it up.

Quote For The Day

“When I first transitioned, I proudly identified as a “tranny” until people within the trans community told me the word was offensive to them. I complied but quickly realized that while striving to be accepted by the hetero-dominated world, the upper echelons of the trans community were trying to sweep the fringe under the rug by censoring the language with which they identify. In addition to banishing “tranny,” “sissy,” “sex change,” and “she-male” as slander, they insisted that the users of these words were the oppressors, making themselves the victims — a well-worn tool of manipulation and control.

As an artist, I love language, and I cherish free speech. RuPaul has been the number-one defender of these, and at the same time he continues to support every shade of queerness within our community, no matter the class. Drag is punk and should never be subjected to politically correct ideals. The moment it stops provoking is the moment it fails as an art form. …

Perhaps we might be better off acknowledging that controlling the people around us only gives us the illusion of control, a fleeting distraction from the core of our empowerment: the realization that we are only victims if we allow ourselves to be. Yes, we all have wounds, but let’s stop projecting them onto our allies,” – Our Lady J, singer/songwriter.

Late Show Nation, Ctd

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A reader has an inspired idea about who could replace Colbert:

My heart just jumped at your “Samantha!” comment. I’ve been telling my friends for a couple of years that my dream Colbert replacement, or replacement for Stewart if he ever left Daily Show for that matter, would be: The husband and wife co-anchor team of Samantha Bee and Jason Jones.

The Daily Show is a fake news show. The Colbert Report is a fake pundit show. The Bee-Jones Factor Cycle or something like that could be the co-anchor news show send-up, sort of satirizing co-anchor news classics like Barbara Walters/Hugh Downs on 20/20. Maybe make the show Samantha Bee’s with Jason Jones as her chief field correspondent. But they are both so good in the studio and in the field that I think co-anchor would be the best set-up.

If you like this idea, spread this shit: The Bee-Jones Factor Cycle!

Or Jamantha Bones:

Another reader has a very different take on the news:

I enjoyed reading your post on Stephen Colbert just now. I, too, have mixed emotions about this news. Mostly, I’m really happy for him and really excited to see how the whole thing unfolds.  I can’t watch Colbert all the time, but I frequently do, and I am in constant awe of how he can be so creative and innovative, and at the same time be so damned funny.

Beyond appreciating his performance, I admire the man.  He is courageous (the White House Correspondents Dinner) and honorable (his congressional testimony when he came out of character was profoundly memorable).  And yes, as someone in your post said, he is authentic (in some weird way). I have no idea what he will do with his new show, but I believe the man is so talented that whatever it is will be brilliant.

But I will miss the character he has created.  Things change.  I think Colbert will leave that character behind and we’ll never see him again.  And that makes me a little sad.

But there’s a little more to it than that.  I first started watching The Daily Show right before The Colbert Report got started, and I remember Colbert appearing as a contributor on The Daily Show.  I started watching the show because my then late-teenager son would mention it.  Jeffrey was struggling with depression, and it could difficult to find topics to connect with him on … but these two late night shows were a topic we could discuss and enjoy together.  When my wife heard that John Oliver was coming to a club in Boston to perform, she suggested that Jeff and I go to see him.  And we did.  Another connection.

It was about a year after that Oliver show that Jeffrey died by suicide.  Recovering from our grief, my wife and I found that our sleep patterns changed: I sleep much less than I did (and Jeff died 4 1/2 years ago) and my wife, who used to be asleep between 9:00 and 10:00, is now frequently still awake at 11:00.  And so she started watching The Daily Show and The Colbert Report.  We don’t always watch it live – but we record each show, and sometimes we’ll watch 2 or 3 nights in a single sitting.

My wife considers these shows a connection to our son, especially Colbert, because it’s not really her type of humor, but it was Jeff’s type of humor.  She feels that when she enjoys Colbert, she is getting a little piece of Jeff.

Surviving the loss of a loved one is a journey.  Over time, the intensity of the pain decreases, but the memory fades too.  (I don’t believe one leads to the other, however.)  At first, we could smell Jeffrey’s scent in his clothing, but that goes away in time.  We re-arranged his room.  Things change and his memory becomes more distant. When The Colbert Report ends its fabulous run, we will feel that we’ve lost another connection with Jeff.

Update from a reader:

Earlier this year a friend’s daughter came down with a mysterious nerve affliction that caused her such pain when moving her limbs that she willed herself into near-paralysis. She’s largely better now, but she spent a lengthy time in hospital, bedridden.

Though only 11 years old, she is seriously precocious, and already a committed progressive. The Colbert Show was and is her favorite program. While she was in hospital, her mom got the idea that a call from Colbert might cheer her. This being New York, everyone knows someone, so friends got to work and within 48 hours the request was on his desk. Without hesitation he called and spent half an hour on the phone, just chatting and encouraging her. And it did cheer her, tremendously.

Again, she’s on the mend; the crisis is thankfully mostly a memory now. She’s delighted for Colbert, the man and mensch, regarding Late Night. But she’s sad that her favorite character is saying goodbye.

Walmart Goes Granola?

The big-box behemoth plans to start selling a line of organic foods:

The world’s largest retailer announced Thursday that it would be partnering with Wild Oats, a prominent health food label, to expand the organic offerings in its grocery section and drive down the price of organic foods across the country. … Starting later this month, the Wild Oats label will begin to appear in the retailer’s grocery sections on approximately 100 USDA certified-organic products, including canned goods, salsa, and spices, among others. On average, those offerings will be 25 percent cheaper than organics sold by competitors, according to the company. Prices on Walmart’s existing organic offerings apart from the Wild Oats products, including produce and milk, will not be reduced.

In light of this news and a similar announcement by Target, Jenny Hopkinson wonders how the country’s organic farmers will cope with the demand shock:

The expansion of organic offerings by both companies are “a validation of what we know, which is that organic foods are attractive to consumers and they are attractive to young consumers and consumers from all walks of life,” said Laura Batcha, CEO and executive director of the Organic Trade Association, the industry’s leading lobbying organization.

However, “there are issues with supply currently in the U.S. — we see it particularly in the livestock and dairy production” side, though there also are problems in other commodities as well, she said. “The growth in the demand is outpacing the acreage.”

If that’s a problem now, the recent announced moves by Wal-Mart and Target look to make matters worse.

And Eve Andrews relays concerns that Walmart can’t turn a profit on organic food without damaging the industry:

[Coach Mark Smallwood, executive director of The Rodale Institute,] explains that the concept of a “premium” associated with organic food is misleading, because the price of an organic good reflects the true cost of its production.

“The issue is that there aren’t the subsidies available to organic farmers that there are [for conventional farmers.] So there’s a question in my mind about how Walmart is going to pull this off and be able to make profit,” Smallwood said. “And for them to even come out and make that statement before they’ve started is a huge question mark. Somebody’s going to have to pay, and my hope is that it’s not the organic farmer.”

Smallwood also shared his concern that if Walmart were to incentivize large-scale organic production, industrial organic practices would become more widespread. In this model, farmers adhere to just the bare minimum of organic standards and ultimately end up depleting soil health on a piece of land, abandoning it, and moving on to another.

The View From Your Window

New Castle, Pennsylvania, 7-50 AM

New Castle, Pennsylvania, 7.50 am. Update from the photo’s owner, sparked by a few readers scratching their heads:

That’s a 10″ f/6 homemade astronomical telescope that I built in 1992, and used mostly at dark, rural sites. I am currently building a semi-permanent shelter here in my backyard (to replace the crude light-pollution shield you see in the picture) to use the telescope for a program of urban astronomy, which means astronomy under less than ideal, light polluted conditions. Note the small finder scope visible on the side of the tube. This is a 2″ department store refractor my parents bought me in 1958 which I decided to use as an auxiliary some years ago. It has gotten more use than my parents ever would have imagined.

Interestingly, I submitted a view from this window some years ago (minus the telescope) that was published already in your book of window views, so this is the second time a view from THIS window has appeared on The Dish. Not bad for a nondescript urban backyard in western Pennsylvania, huh?

It was the shadow of the picket fence that sealed today’s pick.

A Hairbrained Regulation, Ctd

A reader quotes Elizabeth Nolan Brown on the controversy over the Army’s new hairstyle guidelines, which critics say are biased against black women:

“Why not start from a place of allowing women and their immediate supervisors to make those determinations?” Yeah, because if there are two things a military is about, they are decentralized management and individual decision-making. And there will absolutely be no possibility of problems arising when soldiers whose immediate “supervisors”- what is this, WalMart? – have vastly different concepts for what is appropriate hair, or if one of them just doesn’t like African-American hair. What a great idea. And whose says libertarian publications are out of touch with reality?

Another is less sarcastic:

You have to start with the value that the military, both for practical reasons and from tradition, places on “uniform.”

The practical reasons involve both ease of figuring out who is part of your side and promotion of group identity, especially when members come from very different economic situations and cultural backgrounds.

But in some cases, the military makes adjustments.  Physical reality means that you can’t put women into blouses (yes, the military term means the jackets worn by both men and women) without darts.  So the military allows that much variation.  The color, material, and cut of the uniform is still mandated, but that much difference in cut is allowed.  (And you might be amazed at the detail with which the uniform regulations specify how darts must be configured, in order to deal with “underarm fullness”.)

And with hair, the military admits that the broader culture expects women to wear their hair longer than men and allows that.  Women, at least while on duty, have to wear their hair in a style that is tightly constrained, but they can wear it far longer than any man would be allowed.  Similarly, women’s uniforms include the option of wearing a skirt – don’t try that if you are a guy!

So the issue here, and one the military is apparently only belatedly addressing, is how to deal with a situation where they have already made a cultural allowance but have not addressed a physical reality (that black people’s hair is simply not mechanically identical to white or East Asian people’s hair).  I expect that, eventually, they will get it right. But it will be messy.

Another:

This is an ancient story.  During my time in the Air Force, in the early 1970s, when dissent against the Vietnam war was at its maximum and the draft was a burning issue, the hairstyle controversy raged with regard to men’s hair.  It took the form of an eternal conflict between draft-motivated volunteers who wanted to look like rock stars and lifers who wanted to wage war on hippies.  The regulations were ridiculously complicated.  At times, the conflict became racial when the bigots became outraged at big Afros.

Elizabeth Nolan Brown’s proposal would create trouble.  Commanding officers and supervising sergeants would act capriciously.  Bigotry would ooze out of the slime.

The rules for men and women are still ridiculously complicated and absolutely without practical utility.  A simple solution would be a one-sentence regulation: Hair on the head will be styled to avoid a clearly observable physical impediment to the performance of military duties, to the wearing of military headgear, or to health and safety.

Update from a reader:

I’m glad this topic is getting some traction. It’s getting a lot of talk in Army circles, more over the tattoo policy changes, but the general resentment is there all the same. If you talk to soldiers about the revisions to AR 670-1 (the service-wide uniform and appearance regulations) you’ll probably get an eye roll with a “here we go again” from the older NCOs who remember what it was like in the pre-Iraq Army. The move is perceived as an institutional move from the Army at war we’ve had for over a decade, and in which almost all of our leadership is derived from, to a garrison Army that focuses on stupid shit like shining boots and ironing uniforms.

Just as an aside, the last major uniform revision we had in 2007, when the Army introduced the Army Combat Uniform, got rid of leather boots specifically, though of course unofficially, because soldiers were wasting too much time in garrison being made to shine boots – we’ve worn suede boots since, pretty much only to avoid Sergeants Major with too much time on their hands going around bothering privates about the proper amount of shine.

Of course, people forget that the ACU itself is still a hotly contentious issue in the military. It suffers from an acute problem of blending in to absolutely nothing except light grey gravel pits, and it actually makes soldiers stand out more against natural backdrops. This has been known since at least 2006 when the Army began introducing the “Universal Camouflage Pattern” as a kind of jealous response to the effective MARPAT digital camouflage uniform worn by the Marine Corps since 2003. That’s why when we send soldiers on a deployment to Afghanistan, we send them in special uniforms designed for Afghanistan which are essentially ACUs, but the camouflage pattern is the more sensible MultiCam pattern. Congress is actually ticked at the military for not addressing the camouflage problem, but because of interservice rivalry (the Marine Corps fiercely protects its camouflage pattern and doesn’t want other services adopting it, lest they feel less special) the Army is stuck with the gray gravel camouflage that literally blends into nothing.  (Here’s an Economist article from this month that gives background on the whole camouflage debacle.)

But instead of fixing the nearly eight year-old camouflage problem, a real uniform issue, we have a transitioning peacetime Army that is focussing on making black females’ hair impossible to comply with regulations, making males cut their hair once every 3-4 days in order to comply with asinine length requirements, and chaptering out experienced soldiers because of their sleeve tattoos. Priorities, right?