The Dick Morris Award (originally the Von Hoffman Award, until readers pushed for a name-change last year) is given for stunningly wrong political, social and cultural predictions.
Below are the finalists we’ve selected for the 2013 Dick Morris Award, please review them and then vote for your favorite at the bottom of the page.
1) Kevin Drum (Oct 2):
“Traffic on the Obamacare sites will settle down pretty quickly, and that will take care of most of the overloading problems. The remaining load problems will be solved with software fixes or by allocating more servers. Bugs will be reported and categorized. Software teams will take on the most serious ones first and fix most of them in short order. Before long, the sites will all be working pretty well, with only the usual background rumble of small problems. By this time next month, no one will even remember that the first week was kind of rocky or that anyone was initially panicked. … I’ll say this: If there are still lots of serious problems with these websites on November 1, I’ll eat crow. But I doubt that I’ll have to,”
2) Paul Krugman (1998):
“The growth of the Internet will slow drastically [as it] becomes apparent [that] most people have nothing to say to each other…. By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s,”
3) Benjamin Netanyahu (Jan 1995):
“Within three to five years, we can assume that Iran will become autonomous in its ability to develop and produce a nuclear bomb, without having to import either the technology or the material. [The nuclear threat] must be uprooted by an international front headed by the U.S.,” – January 1995, speaking at the Knesset.
4) Paul Ryan (Sep 18):
“Oh, nobody believes [Obama’s vows to not negotiate on raising the debt ceiling]. Nobody believes that. He himself negotiated Bowles Simpson on the debt limit with Democrats. That was Kent Conrad’s requirement. He himself negotiated the Budget Control Act with the debt limit. Graham Rudman. Bush Andrews Airforce Base. Clinton Gore ‘97. All of those major budget agreements were debt limit agreements. I see this time as no different and I believe he does too. I think most people believe he’s just posturing for now,”
5) Hanna Rosin (Jun 19):
“Yes, I realize that the nursery photo in The New York Times Magazine’s recent cover story about Anthony Weiner’s rehabilitation was staged. Yes, I know that the disgraced former congressman was always “weighing” a run for mayor, and was never just a stay-at-home dad facilitating the political ascendance of his wife, Huma Abedin (he earned a hefty sum last year as a corporate consultant). But I can’t help it; I believe that Anthony Weiner, who once thought chicks would dig it if he tweeted them a picture of his namesake, is a changed man,”
6) The Washington Post Editorial Board (Jun 12):
“Mr. Rouhani, who has emerged as the default candidate of Iran’s reformists, will not be allowed to win,”
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