Year: 2013

The Immigration Bill Emerges

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For those with time to spare, the full bill is above. Dylan Matthews goes over the basics. What the pathway to citizenship looks like:

If you’re an undocumented immigrant who arrived in the United States before Dec. 31, 2011, haven’t committed a felony (or three misdemeanors), hold a job, and pay a $500 fine and back taxes, then you will immediately gain the status of “registered provisional,” allowing an individual to legally stay in the United States without risk of deportation. Registered provisionals wouldn’t be able to get any means-tested public benefits. If you’ve already been deported, you’re eligible to apply to re-enter if your parent or child is a citizen or permanent resident, or if you are DREAMer and were deported as a minor …

After six years, you’d have to renew the status, which is dependent on maintaining a steady work history, having a clean criminal record, and paying another $500 fine.

Four years after that (10 years after initially attaining “registered provisional” status), you could apply for permanent residency (aka a Green Card). That step requires showing constant work history, constant presence in the United States, continuous tax payments, clean criminal record, and knowledge of English and civics, as well as paying another $1,000 fine.

Three years after that you’d be eligible to become a citizen. So the recognition-to-citizenship process takes a total of 13 years and requires $2,000 in fines from each adult affected.

Judis worries that immigration will be a boon for businesses but not low-wage workers:

The overall effect of the reforms—which would establish a new labor status for most of the undocumented workers and speed the grant of green cards to a backlog of applicants—will inevitably increase the supply of labor at a time when many Americans are unemployed. Of course, the 11 million undocumented workers are already here, and will no longer be subject to the most egregious kind of exploitation, but they will also no longer be segregated into specialized parts of the labor force and will instead be thrust into the mainstream labor market, where they will compete with native-born workers.

Among Frum’s observations:

Republicans want to postpone voting rights for illegal immigrants as long as possible. Unlike some of the more gullible right-wing pundits, congressional Republicans hold few illusions about how the present-day illegals will vote. Under the deal, voting rights wouldn’t begin to arrive until 2027.

Rubio has put out an FAQ on the bill. One part worth highlighting:

Q: Does this provide any special recognition for the LGBT community.

No. This bill contains no special provisions for the LGBT community.

Paradoxically, I think the DOMA cases hurt us here. Some Democrats are leery of backing immigration equality for the foreign spouses of married gay Americans because they argue that if DOMA falls, then the fight is over. But DOMA may not fall; and gay couples are living apart and in fear and distress and in a diaspora right now. There’s a chance it could emerge in the Amendment process, as Senator Leahy has pledged. But it’s particularly dismaying to see Chuck Schumer let us down on this. He knows the cruelty and pain this causes – and yet still chooses to punt.

“A Tiny Moment’s Respite From The Worst Moment Of Their Lives”

A reader writes:

I finished the Boston Marathon on Monday and was nearby when the bombings happened.  I was never near any danger and witnessed only a few secondary effects of the bombings (people splattered with others’ blood, etc.), but the memory that sticks out is one that I thought you might be interested in for your Cannabis Closet series.  Just a little glimpse into life.   Feel free to post it if you want – I’m always happy to contribute to the Dish family:

At one point, an hour or so after the attack, I was drifting away from the scene and stopped to lean on a sort of cement railing, both to rest my weary body and to just think.  From a stairwell on the other side of the railing, I smelled the distinctive scent of pot.  I looked down and saw two well-dressed women, one white and one black, taking hits from a pipe.  One was holding the lighter and shielding the wind while the other inhaled.  It was a scene of strange intimacy.  The black woman noticed that their smoke was blowing in my direction and said, “Sorry, Marathon Man.”  I said something like, “No worries.  We could all use some relief right now.”

Then they both looked up at me and their words came tumbling out:

“We work at [high-end retail store].  It was right in front of our store.”  “There were legs and feet blown off.”  “There was blood everywhere.”  “People had whole parts of them blown off.”  “I saw someone’s foot.  Just there on the ground.” “People were blown apart.” “There were body parts all over.” “Everyone was covered with blood.”  “And parts of bodies.”

At a certain point, they were finishing each other’s sentences, looking to each other for confirmation that it had actually happened.  I imagined them, being evacuated from work, totally horrified, uncertain about where to go or how to deal with what they just saw, and then one of them inviting the other into this particular stairwell, to share a little secret one of them was carrying in their purse, meant for happier use, now just providing a tiny moment’s respite from the worst moment of their lives.

I did something I almost never do: I reached out and touched them both on the shoulders, gave them a little rub and a squeeze and said, my voice surprising me by cracking, “I’m glad you two are ok,” and I walked away.

Hillary: Stronger Than Ever

Nate Cohn notes that Hillary Clinton currently “commands a staggering 60 percent of the primary vote, an unprecedented figure for a non–vice presidential candidate and one of the highest levels of support of all time”:

Yes, Clinton lost in 2008. But it’s important to note how much stronger her numbers are today than they were in 2007. Back then, only 35-40 percent of Democratic voters offered their support. With a few additional gains, Clinton was able to expand to nearly 50 percent of the vote, despite getting only a sliver of the African American vote. Polls indicate that Clinton has won back much of their support, giving her the broad coalition she possess today.

The true Clinton skill is survival. How those two ever got through the primaries in 1992 still amazes me. Lying very well helped. But it’s clear to me that Clinton has changed, as we all have over the years. There was, for me anyway, a real issue with her path to power – through her husband. But once she had won a Senate seat, and then exhibited remarkable magnanimity at the 2008 Convention, and gained real government experience as secretary of state, she became her own politician. My reservations on that score have evaporated.

Still: did she really make a big impact as secretary of state? Foreign policy was guarded by the president by and large. Maybe some pro-Clinton readers can make the case and persuade me I’m wrong to downplay her substantive record.

Gun Control Gets Shot To Pieces

The background checks bill doesn’t have the votes. Jacob Sullum is skeptical that it would have done any good:

Forcing private sellers at gun shows to arrange background checks with the help of licensed dealers is relatively straightforward. But in that 2004 inmate survey, less than 2 percent of respondents said they had bought weapons at gun shows or flea markets. Three sources accounted for almost nine out of 10 crime guns: “friends or family” (40 percent), “the street” (38 percent), and theft (10 percent). It is hard to see how any notional background check requirement, even one applying to all private transfers, can reasonably be expected to have a significant impact on these sources.

Never under-estimate the power of the major lobby groups in DC: from the NRA to AIPAC and the AARP and the Cuba lobby, they are all designed prevent change. Even if that change is trivial.

It’s enough to make the average voter a little cynical, don’t you think? And I find myself feeling the futility of marshaling any arguments against them. They will all have their way. They are the real actors on the political stage – and the president is reduced to a bystander.

A Breakthrough In Boston?

The cops think they have clear video of a suspect planting the bombs. It could be a “game-changer” in the investigation. Follow more breaking tweets here.

The Austerity Typo? Ctd

Yglesias takes another whack at Reinhart and Rogoff’s research, which a new paper calls into question:

Throught this whole process, R&R—and especially Kenneth Rogoff—keep equivocating about what causal links they’re trying to establish and for what purpose. Attack their strong claims and they retreat to weaker ones. But to establish the political argument that Rogoff has advanced in sworn testimony before the United States Congress requires strong evidence that there’s some reason other than interest rates and debt service costs that high debt burdens lead to slow growth. A broad correlation does not constitute evidence for that proposition. Only a tipping point does. And it’s clear that the evidence for a tipping point is extremely weak and depends on a series of contestable methodological claims that smack of specification-searing.

Krugman piles on:

There is a negative correlation between debt and growth in the data; we can argue about how much of this represents reverse correlation. There is not, however, any red line at 90 percent. And that red line has been crucial to R-R’s influence — without the “OMG, we’re going to cross 90 percent unless we go for austerity now now now” factor, the paper would never have had the influence it’s had.


Karl Smith’s perspective:

The power of RR was that they claimed they had derived the critical mass for government debt. Stay below 90% of GDP and everything proceeds more or less according to traditional models. Reach critical mass and hold on to your hats.

Naturally, this scared the crap out people. There are things in this world to be afraid of, and criticalities are among them. Rogoff, in particular, was delighted at this. He wanted to protect the world from the dangers of debt and now he had in had the tool to do it. No more hemming and hawing. We needed action immediately or we might hit critical mass.

Chait adds:

[The study] claimed to establish a correlation between high debt/GDP and low growth, and its fans turned this into proof that the high debt caused the low growth. But low growth also causes high debt. And what this suggests is that people seized on Reinhart and Rogoff’s finding because it validated an intuitively correct notion, that debt was dangerous. It established a nice, clear cut-off line, which is always handy when you’re trying to warn people of an amorphous long-term danger.

Both these arguments lead back to the same place — namely, that the political debate has been dominated by an imaginary fear. As a result, we’ve endured mass unemployment, a phenomenon with enormous and very long-term consequences.

The Sound Of Equality

Something quite remarkable happened today on the other side of the planet. The New Zealand parliament passed marriage equality for good, making it the first Asia-Pacific country to do so:

Lawmakers approved the bill, amending the 1955 marriage act, despite opposition from Christian lobby groups. The bill was passed with a wide majority, with 77 votes in favour and 44 against. Hundreds of jubilant gay-rights advocates celebrated outside parliament after the bill was passed, calling it a milestone for equality.

But what was truly extraordinary is what happened in parliament after the vote. The place suddenly erupted into song, singing the New Zealand love song “Pokarekare Ana“. Just watch it.

Ask Dreher Anything: Do We Over-Treat Cancer?

Rod explains how his sister handled chemotherapy:

Here are my own thoughts on the often brutal and extraordinary measures taken to extend the lives of the terminally ill. Watch Rod’s previous Ask Anything videos here, here and here. Be sure to check out his new book, The Little Way of Ruthie Leming: A Southern Girl, a Small Town, and the Secret of a Good Life:

[The book] follows Rod Dreher, a Philadelphia journalist, back to his hometown of St. Francisville, Louisiana (pop. 1,700) in the wake of his younger sister Ruthie’s death. When she was diagnosed at age 40 with a virulent form of cancer in 2010, Dreher was moved by the way the community he had left behind rallied around his dying sister, a schoolteacher. He was also struck by the grace and courage with which his sister dealt with the disease that eventually took her life. In Louisiana for Ruthie’s funeral in the fall of 2011, Dreher began to wonder whether the ordinary life Ruthie led in their country town was in fact a path of hidden grandeur, even spiritual greatness, concealed within the modest life of a mother and teacher. In order to explore this revelation, Dreher and his wife decided to leave Philadelphia, move home to help with family responsibilities and have their three children grow up amidst the rituals that had defined his family for five generations – Mardi Gras, L.S.U. football games, and deer hunting.

Ask Anything archive here.

Terrible Idea Of The Day

Daniel Pipes wants the US to support Assad:

Yes, Assad’s survival benefits Tehran, the region’s most dangerous regime. But a rebel victory would hugely boost the increasingly rogue Turkish government while empowering jihadis and replacing the Assad government with triumphant, inflamed Islamists. Continued fighting does less damage to Western interests than letting the Islamists take power. There are worse prospects than Sunni and Shiite Islamists mixing it up and Hamas jihadis killing Hezbollah jihadis, and vice-versa. Better that neither side wins.

Larison sighs:

Pipes doesn’t claim that the regime deserves U.S. support, and he doesn’t think that it does, but instead says that encouraging greater slaughter will keep the warring parties occupied. There are many reasons why this is wrong, but one of the more important ones is that victory by either side poses no real threat to the U.S. The truth is that neither side in Syria represents much of a danger to the U.S. America gains nothing and takes unacceptable risks by providing support to either side. The U.S. is best served by steering clear of the conflict all together.

“The Applause Came From Nowhere”

The Ceremonial Funeral Of Former British Prime Minister Baroness Thatcher

A sketch of the scene today in London:

No one knew who’d started it – perhaps it was purely instinctual. But as the hearse came into view, the crowds found themselves breaking into applause – applause that followed the hearse all the way along the route, until it drew up at the church of St Clement Danes.

Then, once the coffin had been loaded on to the gun carriage and the horses moved off, the applause started again – and followed it all the way to St Paul’s. Down the roads it spread and spread and spread, a long impromptu chain of respect and appreciation.

The applause wasn’t rowdy; there were no whoops or whistles. It was steady, warm, dignified. But also, somehow, determined. At Ludgate Circus, protesters began to boo and jeer – only to find the rest of the crowd applauding all the more loudly to drown them out.

The Guardian is less moved:

There was gentle clapping as the cortege, with police motorcycle escort, drove slowly through cordoned-off streets… [London Mayor Boris] Johnson said outside: “Even for her fans and supporters like me, I don’t think we expected to see quite so many people turn up to show their affection and their respect for Margaret Thatcher. It is a quite astonishing crowd.”

One thing stood out for me: Thatcher herself asked for no eulogies. Just Bible readings and hymns. And a remarkable sermon: