Month: February 2014

Another Ugly Jobs Report

Seasonal Adjustment

Benen summarizes the bad news:

The new report from Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the U.S. economy added 113,000 jobs in January, well below economists’ expectations. The unemployment rate dropped to 6.6% – its lowest point since October 2008 – but that’s cold comfort given the overall data, and is likely affected by congressional Republicans’ decision to cut off jobless benefits for the long-term unemployed. As is often the case, there was also a sizable gap between the public and private sectors – in January, businesses added 142,000 jobs, while spending cuts forced 29,000 government job losses.

Felix Salmon uses the chart above, which is from Betsey Stevenson, to cast doubt on the numbers:

[J]ust look at how we got to that 113,000 figure. We took January’s workforce, of 135,396,000 people, and then subtracted December’s workforce, of 138,266,000 people — for a total decrease of 2,870,000 jobs. But we know that the number of jobs in America always decreases in January — even when the economy is surging. It’s cold out, making outdoor jobs very difficult to do, and the Christmas seasonal jobs are all in the past. So the BLS institutes some seasonal adjustments. In this case, it subtracted 880,000 jobs from the December number, and it added 2,103,000 jobs to the January figure.

All of which means that the 113,000 headline figure is, in fact, 135,396,000 + 2,103,000 – 138,266,000 – 880,000. You want to trade on that being 70,000 jobs lower than you thought it would be?

Cassidy largely blames the numbers on bad weather:

The cold snap does bear part of the blame for this dramatic dropoff. When it’s freezing cold, consumers tend to stay indoors, spending falls, and firms tend to put off hiring new workers. The figures that the Labor Department publishes have already been adjusted to take account of normal seasonal variations. But we’ve been experiencing abnormal variations, which must have had some effect.

Jeffrey Sparshott disagrees:

“Weather was a clear drag on December, but this actually reversed in January,” said Morgan Stanley economist Ted Wieseman.

Indeed, nationwide the weather wasn’t that bad. While December registered the coldest temperatures for the month since 2009, the National Weather Service isn’t expecting a dramatically cold January relative to records from the last 120 years. It was warm in the Rocky Mountains and West, balancing conditions in East, a spokeswoman said.

Ylan Mui also doubts that the weather is playing a big role:

So if it’s not the weather, what is it? Why is the labor market still so weak? There are no easy answers to that question. Without weather as a scapegoat, it raises the uncomfortable prospect that the economy’s potential for growth is lower than we would like it to be.

Alan Pyke notes the continued disconnect between public and private sector jobs:

State, local, and federal government payrolls shrank by 29,000 jobs in January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday, continuing a damaging and historically unusual trend that has undermined the economic recovery throughout the past five years.

Despite spiking briefly during the 2010 Census, the public-sector workforce nationwide isnearly three-quarters of a million jobs smaller than it was when President Obama took office. In that same time, the private sector has added 3.5 million jobs on net, even after accounting for the millions of jobs lost in the economic free fall five years ago

Barry Ritholtz calls the report “mostly meaningless”:

To me, the most fascinating aspect of the employment report is the hoopla leading up to it. It is merely a single monthly data point in an ongoing series, one that 90 percent of the time is almost insignificant.

The Job Losses Republicans Ignore

Ezra spotlights a massive contradiction:

In context, the freakout over the CBO estimate is perverse. Is it really the Republican position that we should do nothing – – in fact, cut aid — for the millions of long-term unemployed, but express shock and terror that employed people will, in a few years, cut back their hours or leave the labor force by choice? Shouldn’t we be more concerned about people desperate to join the workforce, who can’t, than about people voluntarily leaving the workforce, who can?

Some Republicans will say, of course, that they don’t oppose helping the jobless. They just oppose increasing the deficit or increasing taxes to do so. But repealing Obamacare raises the deficit, too! So rather than increasing the deficit to help people who want jobs get them, we would be increasing the deficit to make sure people who want to leave their jobs can’t. That’s insane.

It’s not insanity. It’s just the result of a party that defines itself solely by being against whatever the president believes. It’s nihilism.

Never Mind, Says AIPAC

They’re now against the poison pill bill to scuttle negotiations with Iran:

AIPAC has completely reversed course on the issue. For months, the group had been lobbying lawmakers hard to push the Iran sanctions bill, even launching an attack on one of its biggest allies, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), for not supporting it. Only in recent weeks has AIPAC begun backing off in the face of resistance from the White House and key Democratic lawmakers, including Reid.

Just savor the moment. AIPAC toadies like Bob Menendez are on a limb that just got cut off. They’ll be back, of course. Is Bill De Blasio available? It is his job, afer all, to defend AIPAC whenever they place a call. But the night flower, as usual, withered once a little light was shone upon it. Now let’s make it a klieg-light.

An Acid Test For Francis

Pope Francis Attends Celebration Of The Lord's Passion in the Vatican Basilica

The UN Report on the Vatican’s role as a global conspiracy to enable, abet and cover up crimes against humanity is a vital reminder of just how hideous the Catholic Church has been in violating the souls and bodies of so many innocents. Sometimes, the sheer scale of the abuse renders one mute. But it shouldn’t. Nor should the emergence of a truly Christian – as opposed to Christianist – Pope blind us to the taint that still corrupts Catholicism.

The scale of the criminality is important to keep in mind:

Last month, the Vatican acknowledged that close to 400 priests left the priesthood in 2011 and 2012 because of accusations that they had sexually abused children.

The number of victims is in the tens of thousands. And their agony never ends. Now it should be said that the Church has made some serious changes to prevent child abuse in the future, and Benedict deserves some credit for that. But the institution itself has never held itself fully accountable. And the crimes it presided over were legion and horrifying. Only today, for example, we read of the apology issued by the Legion of Christ – a neo-fascist, theocon cult – for the grotesque abuses of its founder, protected for years by Pope John Paul II:

The Legionaries of Christ, which former members said was run like a secretive cult, accused the founder, the Rev. Marcial Maciel Degollado, who died in 2008, of “reprehensible and objectively immoral behavior” as head of the order from its founding in 1941 until Pope Benedict XVI removed him in 2006.

The Dish’s long coverage of this scandal – well before the hierarchy began finally to take it seriously – can be found here. And when you absorb just how evil this cult was, just how depraved its leader was, and the psychic and spiritual toll it took on so many human beings, you come to one conclusion: there is no way this organization should still exist. The Vatican should shut it down. Period. Instead we have the former cronies and favorites of Maciel still calling the shots:

The order’s newly elected general director, the Rev. Eduardo Robles Gil, has a long history with the group himself. According to its website, he helped establish the Legion in Brazil, and in 2011 he was named to a commission created to work with the victims of Father Maciel. The Rev. John Stegnicki, a former Legion priest now working in the archdiocese of Brasília, was quoted by The Associated Press as saying that the outcome of the election was “disappointing” but predictable, given that the priests voting were by and large Maciel confidants or their protégés. “Who else could they choose from?” he said. “All of them are entrenched in Legion-think.”

So why does the church tolerate the continuation of such an organization? And yet it does. Similarly, why on earth is the Pope who presided over the sex abuse crisis – and protected Maciel to his death – even faintly considered for sainthood, far sooner than has ever been the case before? Sanctifying a Pope who presided over such crimes against humanity is an obscenity.

And why do we have to struggle to discover that more than 400 priests have been defrocked because of child rape in the last couple of years alone? Why aren’t their dismissals announced proudly by the Vatican? And why, for Pete’s sake, does the Vatican not enforce a simple rule: all accusations of child abuse should be referred immediately to secular law enforcement?

Francis has an opportunity here – perhaps the only opportunity the church will ever get – to turn a new page, to insist on complete transparency, to be fully accountable to law enforcement, and to atone and recant for the legacy of the past. There needs to be a purge not just of abusing priests but of every church official who played any part in the cover-up. Why, for example, has Cardinal Bernard Law not been defrocked and publicly shamed – instead of enjoying a cushy sinecure in Rome?

Francis has made some steps toward a reckoning with the past. But not nearly enough so far. He’s been adept at symbols, gestures, simple acts that speak more loudly than words. But no symbol and no gesture would do more to restore some measure of integrity to the institution than following most of the UN Report’s recommendations. The truth is that the Catholic Church has committed a crime against humanity. Until every person implicated in that crime is removed, defrocked and disgraced, the entire moral credibility of the church will remain irreparably damaged.

The Competition To Compete

How to boost your chances of becoming an Olympian:

Peter Spiro wants to allow for Olympic free agents:

A club sports model would hardly eliminate the correlation between country of origin and country of competition. All things being equal, most athletes will want to play for the country they call home. For big-time athletes in the marquee competitions, getting wrapped up in their national flag is an important part of the performance—no amount of money is going to get Michael Phelps to swim for Qatar. At the same time, a free-agent Olympics would expand opportunities for lesser-known athletes and those in the lower-profile sports, who often struggle even as members of major-country delegations. The threat of player-raiding at that level could spur national Olympic committees and home-country corporations to higher levels of sponsorship.

To the extent that players take the highest bids, fans will learn to adjust, just as Ryan Howard’s St. Louis origins are a nonissue for Phillies fans. And if they do compete under the flag of a different nation, athletes shouldn’t have to swear phony allegiance to a new sovereign. The uniform the player wears should suffice to establish sporting loyalties, for players and fans alike.

The Unrepentant Israelis

As they get slowly cornered into a real peace process, the Israeli government – surprise! – steps up destruction of Palestinian homes:

A statement by 25 aid organisations said the number of demolitions increased by almost half and the displacement of Palestinians by nearly three-quarters between July 2013, when the talks began, and the end of the year, compared to the same period in 2012.

One the more remarkable aspects of this is that Israel would never negotiate with a partner that was doing something equivalent. Take the Iran negotiations, which Israel wants to scuttle. Do you think the Israelis would consent to a negotiation without a freeze on Iran’s nuclear development while the talks are underway? And they’d be right to object. When you’re negotiating, it’s completely destructive of the process if one side actually keeps advancing its relevant objectives while the talks are going on.

So why did Israel refuse to freeze its settlement activities on the West Bank while negotiations with the Palestinians took place? Why is it even now stepping up demolition of Palestinian homes as talks stagger on? Are there any established norms that Israel demands from others that it will ever apply to itself?

Hathos Alert

An epic ad for a lawyer – and major hathos material. Deadspin puts it this way:

This is without a doubt the most metal commercial for a personal injury lawyer of all time. Oh, the ambulance chaser in your town has some iMovie effects and a nice suit? Jamie Casino’s got murder, vengeance, and a flaming sledgehammer. Welcome to Casino’s Law, hold on to your fucking dicks.

Clinton Fatigue? Ctd

Well, maybe here is the case to be made for Hillary:

The authors describe her State Department leadership as strong but not dazzling: a “workmanlike Hillary Clinton Addresses National Automobile Dealers Association Conventionenhancement of diplomacy and development” with “deliverables” that were real but not high-profile — no “marquee peace deal,” for example. But she elevated the stature of State, which lost influence to the CIA and Pentagon during the years when two wars dominated the foreign policy landscape. She worked to win over her employees, fighting for budget increases and going to bat for Foggy Bottom bike commuters. As a member of the Cabinet, she brought star power and a venerable understanding of Washington’s “levers of power.”

MichiKak puts it this way:

“To the disappointment of even some of her most ardent supporters,” Ms. Parnes and Mr. Allen write, “Hillary’s legacy is not one of negotiating marquee peace deals or a new doctrine defining American foreign policy. Instead, it is in the workmanlike enhancement of diplomacy and development, alongside defense, in the exertion of American power, and it is in competent leadership of a massive government bureaucracy.”

That’s the pitch: competent leadership of the federal government, unrivaled work ethic, and experience in the ways of Washington. That’s how she both represents a continuation of Obama’s legacy, but with more schmoozing/bullshitting/politicking experience. Plus Bill.

The Olympic Potemkin Village, Ctd

Elias Groll pushes back against the analogy:

Sadly, the initial reports out of Sochi indicate that Olympic Games are going to be covered in utterly predictable fashion: as a confirmation of everything terrible the West thinks about Russia. The toilets don’t have doors! The water can’t be consumed! The people are impossible!

The shoddy accommodations, in particular, are sure to feature heavily in every Sochi story you will read from now until the Olympics’ end. They play on an old notion of Russia in the Western imagination: a land filled with Potemkin villages. The comparison is appearing in the media, and it certainly won’t go away anytime soon. Is there some truth to the notion that Sochi was largely constructed as a vanity project – and, yes, a Potemkin village – to please Tsar Putin? Certainly. But the metaphor will be deployed with such laziness as to be meaningless.

Julia Ioffe makes related points:

There’s a fine line between fair criticism and schadenfreude, and the Western press has been largely well on the side of the latter. I’d also argue that there’s something chauvinistic, even Russophobic in it. The Europeans may not be ready for their Olympics, but, okay, we’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and hope for the best. The Chinese prepare for theirs ruthlessly, but we don’t understand them so whatever. We railed on Romney for daring to criticize the preparedness of our British friends, and we wrote in muted tones about Athens not being ready in time for their Olympics, but with the Russians, we gloat: Look at these stupid savages, they can’t do anything right.