The Cognitive Dissonance Of The One Percent

A trader reacts on the floor of the New

There has been plenty of well-deserved derision directed at the billionaire fretting in the Wall Street Journal that the super-duper-rich like him are headed for concentration camps. Paul Krugman fires an AK47 into the world’s smallest barrel here; while Josh Marshall has a must-read. Josh is actually trying to understand rather than simply excoriate the completely bizarre idea that the Obama administration is a populist, socialist threat to a capitalist system it all but saved from itself:

It is that mix of insecurity, a sense of the brittleness of one’s hold on wealth, power, privileges, combined with the reality of great wealth and power, that breeds a mix of aggressiveness and perceived embattlement.

I’ve been a little taken aback too by the attitude of the Wall Street class, after they royally fucked up the entire global economy, were bailed out by the rest of us, still get Dimon-style compensation, and have enjoyed one of the sharpest booms in stock prices since 2009. At some point, you have to ask: WTF? But here’s the empirical data on how hard the one percent have had it over the last few decades:

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Well, yes, they have returned to pre-Reagan levels of taxation. But the tax take is still roughly where it was in the mid-1990s and I don’t recall Clinton being perceived as a socialist or howls of protest from the wealthy as the economy boomed in the tech boom bubble. Josh notes, for example:

It’s worth remembering that Bill Clinton pushed through a reasonably substantial tax hike on upper income earners in 1993. President Obama meanwhile largely maintained the tax policies of George W. Bush, the guy who had in essence repealed Clinton’s tax increase. These are all facts that are hard to ignore.

So whence the anger and the panic? Josh thinks, as my shrink would say, that it is multi-determined. Is it adjusting to a president who, though he is a pragmatist in his record, is nonetheless more progressive in outlook than any president since the conservative revolution of the late 1970s (of which Carter, in some ways, was a part)? Is it classic in-group isolation that fosters ideological extremism? Yes and yes. But I’d add a couple of factors to the mix.

The first is the triumph of victimology in political discourse. It began on the hard left, of course, in the 1990s, as every member of a minority group was designated a victim, and all were allegedly on the verge of being targeted or discriminated against. Godwin’s Law had to be constantly invoked back then as well. But today, what began on the left is ubiquitous on the right: those denying marriage rights to gays are in fact the real victims of lefty intolerance; whites, not blacks, are the real victims of our racial politics; and men are now the real victims of the feminized, big government left (see Hume; Brit, et al.). If you want to free-base on far right victimology, just track down the rhetoric of Sarah Palin. According to her, Christians now live in constant fear of legions of Obama’s jack-booted thugs, i.e. Wal-Mart greeters wishing them “Happy Holidays.”

The second factor, I’d argue, is actually self-awareness. This is entirely speculative, but many of these extremist plutocrats must surely know, somewhere in their psyches, that they collectively failed – and failed terribly – in self-regulating and thereby protecting the very capitalist system they depend on for so much.

These masters of the universe had to go cap in hand to the federal government to bail out their sorry, incompetent asses. They were revealed not as brilliant engineers of our collective wealth, but as enablers of the debt-mania, tech-hubris and bubble-creating that destroyed so much from 2007 onwards. They were exposed as something much worse than greedy; they were revealed as incompetents whose mistakes and over-reach created untold misery and hardship for countless millions. Their own self-image – again, somewhere deep down – must have shattered a little.

People respond to revelations of their own incompetence in different ways. But the proudest – and this group of people are not exactly renowned for humility – can sometimes respond by internalizing an ever more extreme version of their own previous mindset. They cannot compute the fact that they failed, and so they have to construct a version of reality that insists it was all someone else’s fault, and then build Twitter Goes Public On The New York Stock Exchangeon that an ideology of their own unrelenting heroism, which is now, on their minds, unfairly impugned.

And the only target of blame that can plausibly fill the gap is the federal government. Anything lesser would actually diminish the one-percent’s self-perception as masters of the universe, and require some adjustment in an ideology that has been cast as eternal truth since 1980. Hence the early 2008 myth that the government alone created the economic crisis through too-cushy mortgages – when the vast majority of shady mortgages were in the private sector. And because the one percenters’ collective humiliation has been so great and so public – even the Pope won’t absolve Larry Kudlow of his heresies any longer! – you get the kind of anguished psychology behind Tom Perkins’ absurd paranoia (which makes the neocons’ habitual resort to the anti-Semite card look relatively mild).

You know who they remind me of? Dick Cheney and Don Rumsfeld after 9/11. Both were responsible for the collapse in national security that enabled 9/11 to take place. Both were sold to the public as safe hands behind a jejune young president. And both were anything but safe hands – in fact, they acted like reckless, panicked, and blinkered chickens with their heads cut off. Both simply could not internalize the obvious fact of their own failures – because both had long regarded themselves as national security “masters of the universe.” Their An Emirati trader looks at the prices ofself-understanding could not adjust; it was too fixed by then.

But they are both very intelligent men and knew, deep down, the extent of their incompetence. Their reaction was to up the ante, not unlike Tom Perkins’ crazy. So they did not rationally reflect on the reasons for the failure to protect Americans from 9/11, they assuaged their buried guilt by turning the fight into an even greater battle between good and evil, by putting their previous belief in an unfettered presidency on steroids, authorizing torture on a massive scale, and embracing policies, like the war in Iraq, that could both erase memories of their own incompetence and yet also project that incompetence onto an even larger stage, with even worse results in terms of human life and economic and security costs.

When cornered, the sequestered, guilt-ridden, but psychologically rigid mindset does not reflect. It cannot see the broader picture. It cannot even publicly acknowledge what it must internally understand somewhere: that it played a part in the catastrophe that has now led to public shaming. And they worry deeply that this buried truth, if embraced by the politically influential, could come back to bite them yet. That worry is as rational as their response to it is irrational. If only they could know it, Obama is the best friend they could have in times like these. He wants to defend the capitalist system from its fatal, unregulated flaws. And it’s only by doing that can the one percenters’ wealth-creating dreams have a chance of being realized. If only they could see that. And if only they could adjust.

(Photos: scenes from the crash of 2008 and from Twitter’s IPO from Getty Images.)

How Big Of A “Bailout”?

Gains And Losses

Cohn defends Obamacare’s risk corridors, which Republicans are calling an “insurer bailout”:

Suppose the conservative critics are right. Suppose that most insurers end up taking losses—and that, as a result, the risk corridor program ends up costing the taxpayers money. How much would it really be? Nobody has done the official math on how big the payouts could get. But James Capretta and Yuval Levin, writing in the Weekly Standard, say “This year it could easily cost taxpayers hundreds of millions and perhaps billions of dollars.” That’s consistent with what I’ve heard informally from experts. And in the context of the Affordable Care Act—let alone the entire federal budget—that’s not a ton of money. Remember, the original CBO projections suggested that the federal government would spend about $26 billion on exchange subsidies and nearly twice that on the coverage expansion as a whole.

Here’s where we get to the least familiar—and potentially most important—argument of the whole debate. The premiums insurance companies are offering this year are lower than the CBO expected. As a result, the federal government will probably end up spending less—quite possibly a lot less—subsidizing private insurance for the poor and middle class. So even if the taxpayers have to pay more to insurers through risk corridor payments, they will be paying less to insurers through subsidies. And this isn’t just some happy coincidence: The higher risk corridor payments and lower subsidies are products of the same root cause.

Another Debt Ceiling Debacle?

The GOP appears to be committed to repeating past mistakes:

It would be, McConnell suggested, “irresponsible” to avoid a debt-ceiling crisis.

McConnell is hardly alone; many Republican lawmakers are making similar threats. Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) said over the weekend that the White House will have to give congressional Republicans something “impressive” in order to entice GOP officials to do their duty and avoid crashing the economy on purpose.

And what, pray tell, might this “impressive” gift be? What do Republicans want before they start hurting Americans on purpose? By all accounts, they’re still working on the ransom note in this latest hostage strategy, but they appear to have narrowed the list to the Keystone XL pipeline or eliminating “risk corridors” in the Affordable Care Act in the hopes that consumers will be forced to pay higher premiums.

Oy. Chait sighs:

A clean debt-ceiling bill can’t pass the House, you say? Then how come a clean debt-ceiling bill passed the House three months ago by a vote of 285–144? And how come, nine months before that, a clean debt-ceiling increase passed the House by the same margin? The Journal reports on the demands being hopefully floated by various Republican factions without mentioning at any point that the House did in fact raise the debt ceiling without policy concessions the last two times.

Yglesias piles on:

We have already seen this movie! Multiple times! The way it goes is that the clean debt limit “can’t pass the House” because of party cartel situations. Then Democrats argue, rightly, that it would be dangerous to allow the threat of economic chaos to be used as a lever of policy and they won’t back down. Then John Boehner admits he was bluffing and allows the clean debt limit to pass the House, with most Republicans voting no but a bipartisan majority in favor. We’ve seen it. Several times. The only thing possibly accomplished by doing this again is dealing some minor damage to the economy with unnecessary waiting and uncertainty.

Ted Cruz’s “Reality”

It’s enough to crack Bob Schieffer up. Enjoy this rare moment of actual journalism on a Sunday show:

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Update from a reader:

C’mon. A nervous chuckle is not “a rare moment of journalism.” Demonstrating that Cruz traffics in lies, distortions and a weird alternate reality would be journalism. A chuckle – or even an actual laugh – doesn’t prove anything except Schieffer’s discomfort.

Another agrees:

Schieffer should have had the guts to simply call out Cruz’s absurd claim by asking, “How did Obama cause the shutdown?” Then we’d have at least a glimpse of Cruz’s specious logic and could begin to understand his delusional mind.

Who Watches Cable News?

Fewer people than you might guess:

[T]hose who blame Fox and MSNBC for dividing the country should check their sums. Markus Prior of Princeton University has dug into data, much of it unpublished, from ratings companies who remotely track viewing habits in sample households. His conclusion is that Americans fib about what they watch, and that large majorities simply shun cable news. Perhaps 10-15% of the voting-age population watch more than 10 minutes of cable news a day, a share that rises modestly before exciting elections. For most individual news shows (including hybrids like Jon Stewart’s satirical “Daily Show”), 2m viewers counts as a wild success. That is the equivalent of 0.8% of voting-age Americans.

Yes, but I also think that is too narrow a definition of influence. If the 10 – 15 percent form the bedrock of one party’s base, and shape and echo a message fed through the hyper-partisan cable pipeline, it is precisely the isolated nature of the phenomenon that gives it power. After all, anyone who is not super-ideologically committed or highly partisan would find both MSNBC and Fox to be ridiculous, propagandistic caricatures of news. That’s why their audiences are relatively small. In fact, both propaganda channels may have maxed out on their reach because most (sane) Americans never stop laughing or gasping at cable news’ inane extremism when they have the misfortune to turn it on. But keep that audience geographically isolated, feed them with all sorts of political, erogenous-zone pap, and get them to spread the word (far more credibly than the TV) and you have a political movement. Without Fox News, no Tea Party.

Cable news is both a marginal enterprise and yet a central force behind the disintegration of a reasonable national conversation. It’s tiny in size but exponentially more potent in influence. Which makes it a particularly vexing problem for a politically stale-mated country.

Blogs That Cry “Click!” Ctd

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Maria Konnikova investigates what makes Internet articles go viral:

[Researchers Jonah] Berger and [Katherine] Milkman found that two features predictably determined an article’s success: how positive its message was and how much it excited its reader. Articles that evoked some emotion did better than those that evoked none—an article with the headline “BABY POLAR BEAR’S FEEDER DIES” did better than “TEAMS PREPARE FOR THE COURTSHIP OF LEBRON JAMES.” But happy emotions (“WIDE-EYED NEW ARRIVALS FALLING IN LOVE WITH THE CITY”) outperformed sad ones (“WEB RUMORS TIED TO KOREAN ACTRESS’S SUICIDE”). Just how arousing each emotion was also made a difference. If an article made readers extremely angry or highly anxious—stories about a political scandal or new risk factor for cancer, for example—they became just as likely to share it as they would a feel-good story about a cuddly panda.

The “new and improved” headline seen above was generated a new Chrome app called Downworthy:

In order to combat the endless stream of clickbait, Downworthy takes commonly used phrases and replaces them with much more realistic and honest versions. “Literally,” for example, becomes “Figuratively”; “Epic” becomes “Mundane”; “Will Change Your Life Forever” becomes “Will Not Change Your Life in ANY Meaningful or Lasting Way.” It might not be the most pretty commonplace thing to exist on the face of the Earth, but it’s pretty great nonetheless.

The headline for Konnikova’s article was also given the Downworthy treatment:

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Previous Dish on click-bait here.

Quote For The Day

A heartbreaking paragraph from the NYT’s story about the deepening dementia of former Texas Dallas Cowboys star, Rayfield Wright:

“I’m scared,” he said. He buried his face in his giant hands before looking up again and almost pleading, “I don’t want this to happen.” He wiped a tear from his cheek.

“I just want to know why this is happening to me,” he said two times in a row. His former girlfriend who is now his caregiver, Jeannette DeVader, was seated by his side and nudged him.

“You know, honey, you know,” she said. “You know, we learned in 2012 why.”

Wright raised his voice. “No, I want to know why!”

Money, Mr Wright. Money.

Quote For The Day II

“Last year, Andrew took a leap of faith, leaving behind the downward spiral of ad-supported mainstream media and branching out on his own with The Dish – my favorite site, offering the web’s smartest cultural commentary, and a ray of hope for intelligent, ad-free journalism howler beagledriven by passion and integrity rather than commercial greed.

This, in fact, is the purpose of this modest PSA: Similarly to Brain Pickings, what makes The Dish possible are reader subscriptions. They keep the lights on for Andrew and his small team, not only allowing them to continue doing what they do so brilliantly but also offering a broader proof-of-concept for the potential of such brave, paradigm-redefining models for new media and integrity-driven journalism. So I urge you to consider becoming a Dish subscriber, or if you’re already one, renewing your subscription at the start of this critical second year. We shape this world with our decisions about what to give our support and attention to, and The Dish is the kind of thing that makes our world, quite simply, better,” – Maria Popova, in her weekly newsletter for Brain Pickings.

A Good Death, Ctd

A reader adds to the growing thread:

Several years back, my father passed away from a heart attack at the age of 59. He was at home with my mother having a nice talk and had just poured himself a glass of wine. Then he started complaining about a sharp pain in his chest that wasn’t going away. He proceeded to give my mother a big hug and imitated Redd Foxx’s character on Sanford and Son saying, “I think this might be the big one!,” causing both my mother and him to laugh.

After that, he collapsed and died.

While his death was unexpected at his age and I miss him dearly, I nevertheless feel relief when I think of his circumstances. Not only was his death quick, but I had always known my father to be a particularly grouchy and difficult person when sick and feared that he would’ve handled illness in old age poorly. But in his final moments, he saw what was coming and had the grace and confidence to squeeze in one more act of love and laughter. It can’t get much better than that.