Paul Ryan Can See Russia From His Pet Political Issue

This is ridiculous:

[CNN host Kate] Bolduan pressed Ryan on what Congress could do in response to international crisis.

“Well, I think we should move forward on natural gas exports very quickly,” the former GOP vice presidential nominee insisted. “I think we should approve an LNG terminal in the east coast to go to Europe. I think we should approve the Keystone Pipeline. And I think we should show that the U.S. is going to be moving forward on becoming energy independent.”

“Moving forward with the Keystone pipeline!” Bolduan exclaimed. “That development would take years, though, to actually make that happen.”

Ryan argued that the controversial pipeline would be a “signal” to Russia.

Erik Loomis quips:

There’s no question that the one thing that will cower Putin is if Obama decides to pipe some Canadian fossil fuels through Nebraska to Gulf Coast posts.

Ben Adler explains why Keystone would have little effect on Russia:

After conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to supply disruptions in 2006 and 2009, Europe took measures to make itself less vulnerable. Meanwhile, as U.S. natural gas production has soared in recent years, U.S. demand for gas from the international market has shrunk, so even without exporting gas, we’ve been freeing up more of it for Europe. “The U.S. energy boom has already changed the balance of power in Europe away from Russia and to a more balanced posture, even without sending a single molecule of American natural gas over, because it has freed up supplies from places like Qatar and Norway to compete with Gazprom,” says Andrew Holland, senior fellow for energy and climate at the American Security Project, referring to Russia’s state-owned oil and gas company. …

All of this aside, there is still no evidence that Russia would be more respectful of Ukrainian sovereignty if it faced more competition for European gas markets. The main beneficiaries of allowing more exportation of fossil fuels would be the companies that produce those fossil fuels.

Francis On Civil Unions, Ctd

Tyler Lopez doubts that the Pope was really endorsing same-sex partnerships in the interview published yesterday:

The pope’s statement could easily be interpreted to mean the extension of legal rights to a caregiver living with a terminally ill loved mary-knots-SD-thumbone. Some civil unions also allow widows who wish to form a new romantic partnership to keep Social Security survivor’s benefits. To give you an idea of how slow things are moving here, this represents progress: Church leaders previously suggested that widows should “have consecrated to God their remaining years in the unmarried state.”

Being exceedingly careful not to issue any errant endorsements of a loving commitment between same-sex partners, the pope only suggests that the Vatican should examine and evaluate the circumstances of governmentally recognized relationships.

Yes, but it’s clear that gay couples could be included in such arrangements … and did you expect an American secular liberal to run the Catholic church anyway? I sure didn’t and wouldn’t want one to. Elizabeth Dias is on a shrewder path. She interprets the statement as another step in Francis’ tone-shifting project:

He also, once again, reminded the world that his papacy seeks to welcome gays, not to judge. It pointed to his desire to see a church of pastors, not of doctrinaires. It was a loud echo of the five most famous words of his papacy so far: “Who am I to judge?” He uttered them in reply to a reporter’s question on gays in an impromptu press conference last July. Even that brief gesture of increased compassion from the Holy See sent shockwaves through global Catholic communities, and it signified the shift in tone that put Francis on the cover of LGBT magazine The Advocate’s as their 2013 Man of the Year.

Allahpundit weighs in:

A Christian friend who supports gay marriage has always insisted to me that there’s no real contradiction between her faith and her views on SSM.

Religion has its sphere and civil society has its sphere; so long as the Church gets to set the rules in its own house, i.e. by not having to recognize or perform same-sex marriages, it can be agnostic about which sorts of relationships the government chooses to legally recognize. I don’t know if Francis would go that far, although there are credible reports that he privately endorsed civil unions for gays in Argentina as a potential compromise position while the country was debating legalizing gay marriage. Either way, the bit above about taking care not to vaccinate people against faith is consistent with his pronouncements on family/sexual matters so far: He seems reluctant to get caught up in these disputes for fear that they’ll sidetrack his bigger-picture vision for the Church, which has more to do with charity for the poor and less with culture-war flashpoints that risk alienating more socially liberal believers. It’s not quite a “truce” a la Mitch Daniels but more a matter of emphasis. Or so it seems to a humble atheist.

Look: Pope Francis is the first Pope to come from a country that already has marriage equality. He has long understood the distinction between a religious truth and a civil law. And the church in Argentina hasn’t shriveled up and died since marriage equality arrived. In my view, the church can easily assent to civil unions as it easily consents to civil divorce: as long as it’s a civil matter and not a religious one, this is simply a consequence of living in a pluralistic society, and since the Second Vatican Council, the church has come to terms with that.

John Gallagher sees other reasons to be hopeful that things are getting better in the Church:

This isn’t the only recent sign that the Vatican may be softening its antigay stand. Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace at the Vatican condemned Uganda’s antigay laws, saying that “homosexuals are not criminals” and shouldn’t be sentenced for up to life in prison. In most corners, this would be met with a “duh,” but in the Vatican this is actually bold.

One more hint that change might be afoot: the Jesuit magazine America recently ran an editorial echoing Turkson’s condemnation. Perhaps more interesting, the magazine also ran a cover story that concluded that Pope Francis does seem to be shifting the Church’s stance on LGBT issues, though not its doctrines, with a greater emphasis on dealing with people where they are instead of judging them in advance.

America is not taking a different stance than it has in the past; it’s a pretty progressive Jesuit publication. Heck, it even had me on the cover in the 1990s making the case for gay inclusion in the church. So I wouldn’t read too much into that. FOD Dan Savage argues that if Francis really is endorsing civil unions, he’s 30 years too late:

If Christians had looked at the suffering of gay men in AIDS wards in 1985 said, “The lives, loves, and rights of these couples must be protected,” and if conservative Christians had proposed civil unions then and gotten a civil unions statute signed into law by the conservative Christian president they helped elect, that might’ve halted the push for marriage equality before it could even get off the ground.

But now that we’re winning marriage—now that victory is assured—the pope is willing to maybe think about supporting some type of civil union scheme. I’ll say to the pope what I said to my evangelical Christian pal: that fucking ship has fucking sailed. What the pope is saying to gay people in 2014 is this: “Okay, now that you’re winning marriage, here’s an idea: give marriage back and we will give you civil unions… which we once opposed with the same intensity and in the same apocalyptic terms that we oppose marriage today. Is it a deal?”

No deal, Francis.

Of course that’s right, but Francis is really talking about this topic within a Catholic context. He’s talking about how the church can understand these matters, not the state. That’s a start, at least. It’s a return to the spirit of humility and inquiry that led to the 1975 document that insisted that homosexual orientation was no sin. Unlike civil society, moreover, Catholicism has a long and deep theology wrapped up in a Thomist understanding of gender, sex and love. That cannot and should not be junked overnight to meet Western secular standards. It requires a difficult discussion about how the church’s teachings on homosexuality impact its teachings on love and family and sexuality as a whole. It requires a process of deliberation, prayer and thought. I see Francis as doing one thing: allowing a real debate about these matters for the first time since Ratzinger shut it down two decades ago. And we will only see its fruit in a few decades’ time. But the challenge now for gay Catholics, it seems to me, is engaging in this conversation, telling our truths to our fellow believers, and seeking a way for the church to reconcile its teachings of the equal dignity of all human persons with its demand that gay people lead lives without intimacy or close family at all. Francis has invited us in; we should take him up on the offer.

Russia’s Loss Isn’t Our Gain

Scott McConnell makes an important point:

The dream of chaos inside Russia still animates half the people inside the Beltway. Paula Dobriansky, a big deal ambassador during the Bush administration tells an audience that Putin’s real fear is that the Maidan revolutionary spirit will spread to Moscow. That is obviously what she wants—though why anyone would seek regime disintegration in a state that possesses hundreds of nuclear missiles in not obvious.

Adam Kirsch thinks seeing Russia through a Cold War lens is “making it hard for us to assess the real dimensions of the threat—to take Putin and what he represents entirely seriously”:

What we are seeing is a weird kind of negative feedback loop: The more dangerous Russia is, the more untimely it seems, so the less dangerous it appears. The problem is that, while Putin’s government and his ideology have little to do with the Soviet Union, the Soviet Union remains our reflexive frame of reference for anything having to do with Russian geopolitics; and the Soviet Union is no longer frightening to us. Partly this is a generational issue. No one under 30 today remembers the Cold War at all; no one under 60 played any major role in waging it. What remains is the defunct iconography of Cold War pop culture: Russian villains from the Bond movies to Rocky to Boris and Natasha, which could not seem less threatening today.

 

“They Have Assassinated Syria”

Zaher Sahloul bears witness to the atrocities of Assad’s snipers and tells an upsetting tale:

Almost every doctor I met at the hospital told me another horrific story about a young mother who tried to make the crossing with her two children.

When she hastened through the corridor, holding one child in each hand, a sniper targeted her 4-year-old son, killing him instantly. She started screaming in agony. Then a bullet hit her second son, a 3 year-old, and killed him, too. She sat down between the bodies of her sons, waiting for the sniper to shoot her… but the shot did not come. He spared her to live a life without her children, to be consumed by a gnawing emptiness — something snipers have done to countless Syrian mothers. When she finally arrived at M-1 with the dead bodies of her two sons, she was in the middle of a complete mental breakdown.

The snipers, and the regime that deploys them, have succeeded in transforming a peaceful movement for democratic revolution into a civil war, planting fear and deep psychological scars, displacing tens of thousands of civilians fleeing for safety, creating hatred among different ethnic and religious groups, fuelling sectarianism, and attracting extremism. Their bullets have not only killed my compatriots, but also my homeland.

Clinton, Hitler, Polk, And Putin

If you’d forgotten – or never learned about – how the Clintons think and operate, the last couple of days were a quick Cliff Notes refresher. First up, Hillary was at a fundraiser, and talked about Ukraine. Perhaps trying to impress her audience or perhaps displaying her inner neocon, Clinton morphed – as she did in 2003 – into John McCain:

Now if this sounds familiar, it’s what Hitler did back in the 30s. All the Germans that were … the ethnic Germans, the Germans by ancestry who were in places like Czechoslovakia and Romania and other places, Hitler kept saying they’re not being treated right. I must go and protect my people and that’s what’s gotten everybody so nervous.

This is about as inflammatory a statement as you can imagine – and one the president has wisely eschewed. But I guess if it’s an indicator of how she thinks about the issue, it’s fair enough. Her instinct is to equate the 2o1os with the 1930s – which is one more indication of how she truly is a classic boomer politician. But, of course, after a flurry of press interest, Clinton then backtracked. Observe the form here – because there is a real possibility we could face years of this:

[Putin’s action] is reminiscent of claims that were made back in the 1930s, when Germany under the Nazis, kept talking about how they had to protect German minorities in Poland and Czechoslovakia and elsewhere throughout Europe. So I just want everybody to have a little historic perspective. I am not making a comparison, but I am recommending that we can perhaps learn from this tactic that has been used before.

To recap: “if this sounds familiar, it’s what Hitler did” is “not making a comparison.” I guess it all depends on what the meaning of the word “comparison” is. Get out your thesauruses – the Clintons are coming back! Carpenter, meanwhile, proffers a much more apposite analogy in history a century ago in America:

President Polk justified his Mexican land grab, in part, as a solemn U.S. responsibility to protect Americans on both disputed and incontestable Mexican soil. Unlike Hitler’s limitless and intercontinental aggression, though, all Polk wanted, post-Texas annexation, was California, New Mexico, Utah and Nevada, and chunks of Arizona, Colorado, Wyoming, Kansas and Oklahoma. Polk’s aggression infuriated Congressman Lincoln and led U.S. Grant to later observe that Polk’s war was “one of the most unjust ever waged on a weaker country by a stronger.”

Even this analogy is a stretch, but it’s shorter than Hitlerism.

The Minority That Thinks It’s A Majority

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Most marriage equality opponents don’t realize that a majority of Americans disagree with them:

What’s going on here? For starters, Americans overall don’t realize how widespread support for same-sex marriage has grown — only 34 percent of the public correctly believe that most of their peers support gay marriage. This is at least partly a function of how rapidly public opinion has shifted. Ten years ago, only 32 percent of Americans supported same-sex marriage, compared to 53 percent in favor today — a 21-point shift. But same-sex marriage opponents are unique in the depth of their misunderstanding of the issue. Because they skew strongly conservative and deeply religious, this may be a manifestation of what Andrew Sullivan has termed “epistemic closure.” Think of this as an extreme case of confirmation bias — that tendency of people to filter out information that challenges their beliefs and preconceived notions.

Looking at the same poll, Emma Green concludes that the most surprising change over the last decade is that people “have concluded that what happens in other people’s bedrooms is none of their business”:

A majority of those surveyed said that sex between adults of the same gender was morally wrong. It was a slim majority—only 51 percent—and roughly 43 percent said that gay sex is fine. There were regional differences, too. About half of Californians and Floridians had no objection to gay sex, while only a third of Texans were okay with it.

Compare this to the proportion of people who support gay marriage: 53 percent of Americans for, 41 percent against. This suggests that roughly a tenth of Americans don’t like gay sex but think gay people should be able to get married anyway. In other words, they don’t think public policy should necessarily mirror their private beliefs.

A decade ago, this distinction between public and private was virtually non-existent.

Things look good for equality in state polls as well. Tom Jensen summarizes the latest from PPP in Arizona:

Only 22% of Arizonans say they support Senate Bill 1062, compared to 66% who opposed it. Opposition to the bill is bipartisan with majorities of Democrats (11/86), independents (18/64), and Republicans (34/51) alike against it. 72% say they agree with Jan Brewer’s veto of it, compared to only 18% who disagree with her action. …

For the first time in our polling we find that a plurality of Arizonans support gay marriage. 49% are in favor of it to 41% who are opposed, a net 9 movement in favor of gay marriage in the state since November of 2011 when there was 44/45 opposition to it. Voters under the age of 45 support it 55/36 with seniors the only age group against it at this point. 77% of Arizonans support at least civil union for same sex couples, including 69% of Republicans, with only 19% opposed to any form of legal recognition at all.

And Iowans are OK with their marriage law:

Almost 5 years after gay marriage became legal in Iowa, 78% of voters in the state say it’s either had a positive impact or no impact at all on their lives. Even among Republicans, 61% grant that its being legal hasn’t had a negative effect on them. Iowans remain closely divided on the issue- 46% think it should be legal to 45% who believe it should be illegal- but that represents a net 8 point increase in support from October of 2011 when only 41% of voter supported it to 48% who thought it should be illegal.

Why England Isn’t Russia

Orwell once famously observed that the goose-step could never be adopted by British soldiers because, if they marched in the streets, the English would just burst out laughing. I wonder if he thought a solemn picture of a prime minister on the phone with an American president would one day do the same thing:

At which point, it was off to the races … :

… and it gets progressively very, very silly:

Then this:

Till the dogs take over:

And so reassured that English democracy is still alive and well, I carry on with my day.

Trigger Warning: This Post Contains Criticism Of Trigger Warnings

Noting that college students are now pushing their professors to append trigger warnings to course material, Jenny Jarvie protests:

Issuing caution on the basis of potential harm or insult doesn’t help us negotiate our reactions; it makes our dealings with others more fraught. As [Susannah] Breslin pointed out, trigger warnings can have the opposite of their intended effect, luring in sensitive people (and perhaps connoisseurs of graphic content, too). More importantly, they reinforce the fear of words by depicting an ever-expanding number of articles and books as dangerous and requiring of regulation. By framing more public spaces, from the Internet to the college classroom, as full of infinite yet ill-defined hazards, trigger warnings encourage us to think of ourselves as more weak and fragile than we really are. …

Structuring public life around the most fragile personal sensitivities will only restrict all of our horizons. Engaging with ideas involves risk, and slapping warnings on them only undermines the principle of intellectual exploration.

The Ways We Die

Paul Waldman puts gun deaths in perspective:

There were 606 accidental deaths by shooting in 2010, or 1.66 per day. There were another 252 firearm deaths that were “undetermined,” which I guess means that the police never figured out whether it was an accident or intentional. You can look at this number in two ways. On one hand, there are over 300 million of us, so only one in 500,000 Americans is killed every year because his knumbskull cousin said “Hey Bert, is this thing loaded?” before pulling the trigger. You can see that as a small number. The other way to look at is that each and every day, an American or two loses his or her life this way. In countries with sane gun laws, that 606 number is somewhere closer to zero.

Aaron Carroll thinks we focus on the wrong risks:

Update from a reader:

I was shocked by the number of “unintentional” poisoning deaths – 33,041 in 2010! How, I wondered, could that many people be accidentally poisoned? A bit of googling found that, per the CDC, “91% of unintentional poisoning deaths are a result of drug overdose. Drugs commonly involved in unintentional poisoning deaths include opioid pain medications such as methadone, hydrocodone, or oxycodone.” Apparently the “unintentional poisoning” category increased 160% between 1999 and 2009.

So this chart, in addition to showing the relatively small (yet still too large) number of accidental gun deaths, also shows the massive increase in prescription drug addiction, overdose and death in the United States in the last decade. This, more than anything I’ve read lately, illustrated the enormity of this problem to me. Perhaps it will do the same for others.

Capturing Chaos

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Photographer Marcel Christ combines his backgrounds in chemistry and photography to create startling images:

Through experimentation with countless liquids, the artist finds ways to give life to otherwise inanimate objects. In this ongoing series, Powder, Christ captures the expressive movement of colorful powders that pop out against a solid black background in unpredictable formations that result in an organized chaos.

From an interview with the artist:

I love to show things you can’t see with the naked eye, combined with all different subjects and textures. That includes bursts of powder and explosions. The aesthetics of destruction are very beautiful. That specific moment you see in these images lasts barely 1/10 000 of a second. A few moments later, the studio is a mess.

Find more of his work here.