Month: November 2011

Are Candidates’ Spouses Out Of Bounds?

Conor Friedersdorf wants to shelter Herman Cain's wife from the press:

When a politician is accused of sexual impropriety, whether or not his wife stands by him tells us nothing about the truth of the allegations — see Bill and Hillary Clinton — or their relevance, or how objectionable the politician's actions were if the allegations prove true, or whether voters should forgive him. Nor is there reason to believe that what a wife says publicly in that situation is what she really believes. But there is every reason to believe that scrutiny of spouses increases the cost of presidential runs to people who actually care about their spouses.

Agreed. My impulse on this is European. But at some point, her existence matters and, from all accounts, would help humanize Cain. I suspect we'll see more of her in the near future.

What Happens If Greece Leaves The Euro?

Panic:

[T]he real threat of a Greek default is in the example it would set. Citizens of other European nations would see the chaos; they might figure that their savings would be safer in German, rather than Portuguese (or Italian) banks. Bond investors might feel the same; yields would rise further. Official creditors (including the ECB) might take a hit, making it even more difficult for them to participate in other bailouts.

For all the bluster, one can't help feeling the tough EU stance is a bit of a bluff. They can't view a Greek exit with anything other than fear.

What happened in the last few days is something quite shocking to the Eurocrats. Someone actually asked the people of his own democratic country if they approve of deep and lasting austerity as a worthwhile price to keep the euro. So finally, we have a rogue force in EU decision-making: democracy. I know there are enormous systemic risks in delaying the implementation of the deal made last week; but there are also profound long-term risks in pushing for the deeper European integration required of this crisis without popular, democratic consent.

I'd prefer temporary chaos that can cede to a democratic reality; than a papered-over deal, hated by the southern European population, that could lead to a populist explosion down the line, especially if another recession hits. We're already seeing the paradox of accelerating the loss of sovereignty past the popular national will: you actually increase nationalism and division, rather than ameliorating them. In other words, the EU begins to defeat its own reason for existing.

And, yes, this has already begun to happen. Sarko's and Merkel's thinly veiled contempt for Greece prompted memories of the Nazi occupation to be revived in Athens. Britain's Tory Euro-skeptics are beginning to flex their muscles again in the British parliament. German voters may soon reach the real end of their patience with the Greeks and Italians. And more and more, we keep hearing of the next domino that could fall. France?

Reading The Iran War Tea Leaves

The Guardian reported yesterday that the British are preparing for an attack on Iran. Ron Kampeas flags some conflicting analysis on the likelihood of a strike from different sources. Tarek Osman warns that events of recent months might enable a strike:

[I]f Israel or the United States (or both) were to decide to attack Iran – through air-strikes rather than a ground invasion – they will seek to ensure three preconditions in the region: that Arab resistance to any such attack will be limited; that it would not be perceived as an attack on “Islam”; and that Iran’s regional satellites (Hizbollah and Hamas) are given strong disincentives to engage in the struggle. All this will be difficult, but much of it is not impossible. Saudi Arabia and most other Gulf monarchies want to see Iran’s powers curtailed; Egypt will for the next few months at least be consumed by its internal travails; Syria’s regime is entangled in a domestic war for survival, and even Hizbollah’s solidarity with Iran in an armed confrontation with Israel would have its limits.

Unless there is evidence of an imminent threat to Britain or the US, I cannot think of a crazier strategy. As outlined above, it may well be seen as the West's entrance into the Sunni-Shi'a struggle in the region, providing plenty of ammunition for any Shiite Jihadist, let alone a Quds operative, to strike back, and force a ratcheting up of the police and security state at home even further. Bruce Riedel analyzes what Iran could do in response:

Iran’s capability to retaliate for an Israeli strike against the U.S. is enormous.  It could encourage its Shia allies in Iraq to attack American forces, as they seek to withdraw from the country before the end of the year, or the American diplomats who will stay behind. It could encourage the Afghan Taliban, with which it has developed a closer relationship in the last couple of years, to step up its attacks on NATO forces in Afghanistan. The Italian forces in Afghanistan are particularly vulnerable, since they are deployed near the Iranian border around Herat, but American bases across the country would be even more at risk than they are today. U.S. bases in the Gulf states, including Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman, would be in range of Iranian missiles and terrorists. Hizbullah and Iran have contingency plans for attacks on American diplomatic and other targets across Europe, Africa, Asia, and here at home. They don’t need to rely on Mexican drug cartels to hit inside America.

Is The Tea Party Losing Steam?

Olympia Snowe is no longer doomed:

In October of 2009 only 31% of Maine GOP voters stood with Snowe, while 59% wanted to replace her with someone more conservative. … [O]ver the last seven months there's been a major transformation, and now 46% of primary voters in the state stand with Snowe compared to only 47% who want to replace her from the right. Snowe's approval rating with GOP primary voters is up from 47/44 in March to now 51/37.

Weigel previously predicted that no incumbent Republican will lose a primary to a Tea Partier in 2012. And one of the obvious successes of Occupy Wall Street has been to change the mood – and capture it for a while. I don't think Romney's Mormonism will be the albatross of his campaign (although I do believe its capacity to keep some evangelicals at home) but I do suspect an annual income of $26 million and a net worth ten times that will seem somewhat out of touch with the times.

Moore Award Nominee

"[It's] hard to have much sympathy for the French satirical newspaper firebombed this morning, after it published another stupid and totally unnecessary edition mocking Islam. The Wednesday morning arson attack destroyed the Paris editorial offices of Charlie Hebdo after the paper published an issue certain to enrage hard-core Islamists. … Sorry for your loss, Charlie, and there's no justification of such an illegitimate response to your current edition. But do you still think the price you paid for printing an offensive, shameful, and singularly humor-deficient parody on the logic of "because we can" was so worthwhile? If so, good luck with those charcoal drawings your pages will now be featuring," – Bruce Crumley, Time.

Quote For The Day

"David Axelrod has always been skillful at creeping into your room in the middle of the night and slicing out your heart, somehow without leaving behind a single fingerprint or drop of blood that ties him or his candidate to the crime,” – Obama biographer David Mendell, predicting the Obama campaign's negative campaign against Romney.

The Oligarchy We Live In

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One place the financial crisis didn't hit:

According to a Roll Call analysis of Congress members’ financial disclosure forms, the collective net worth of American lawmakers jumped 25 percent to over $2 billion in just the last two years — with 50 of the richest Congressmen and women accounting for 90 percent of the increase.

In 2008, the minimum net worth of House Members was just over $1 billion. In 2010, it rose to $1.26 billion. Senators experienced a more modest increase during this same time period, going from $651 million in 2008 to $784 million last year. Roll Call notes that the real net worth of individual members is likely higher, since their estimates do not take into account non-income-generating properties such as private homes.

(Image source: William Domhoff, Sociology Department, UC-Santa Cruz)