What Obamacare’s Critics Are Saying

A new report from Heritage’s Edmund Haislmaier claims that the healthcare exchanges won’t encourage competition:

For the vast majority of states, the exchanges will offer less insurer competition than the state’s current individual market. Most of the insurers whose principal business is employer-group coverage appear to expect significant erosion in that coverage segment due to Obamacare inducing employers to drop their current group plans. Given that the distribution of exchange enrollees will likely be skewed toward the lower end of the 100 percent to 400 percent of FPL income range (and thus, eligible for reduced cost sharing), participating insurers are offering exchange plans with limited provider networks and a significant number of Medicaid managed-care plans opted to join the exchanges.

The insurers who have elected to participate in the exchanges are mainly a mix of Blue Cross carriers seeking to extend their current market dominance, group-market carriers seeking to retain enrollees when employers drop coverage, and Medicaid managed-care insurers expanding into a market that they view as very similar to their current business.

In fact, Obamacare’s complicated, income-based design of premium and cost-sharing subsidies will result in the exchange market essentially offering something like Medicaid managed-care for the middle class.

Avik Roy is worried about Healthcare.gov’s security:

One of the most underappreciated, but important, problems with Obamacare’s troubled health insurance exchanges are their inadequate safeguards against identity theft and misuse of private information. We’ve now learned that an important government report detailing “high risks” to the security of the Obamacare website was concealed from a key official, Henry Chao. The concealment misled Chao to believe that there were no longer any high security risks to the launch of the federal exchange, prompting him to recommend the approval of healthcare.gov. “I’m not even copied on this,” exclaimed Chao in aNovember 1 interview with the House Oversight Committee, where he was presented with the security report for the first time. “It is disturbing…This is…a fairly non-standard way to document a decision.”

It’s not clear whether or not the concealment was intentional. “I don’t want to think the worst of people,” Chao told investigators. But he acknowledged that it was “kind of strange” that he wasn’t included on the email that contained this critical information, given that there were people that report directly to him that were included on it, along with his direct superiors. “Why I’m surprised is that [Teresa Fryer, the Chief Information Security Officer] had me do this, file this process, but [didn’t] copy me on the [Authorization to Operate] letter. I mean, wouldn’t you be surprised if you were me?”

And Peter Suderman takes the administration to task for inflating its enrollment numbers:

[T]he administration isn’t actually counting enrollments. Instead, it’s counting the number of people who have placed health plans in their online shopping carts—not necessarily people who have signed up and agreed to be billed, and certainly not people who have actually paid the premium for the first month of coverage. It’s the equivalent of Amazon counting a TV sold every time someone puts a TV in his or her online shopping cart, regardless of whether or not they actually go through the checkout process.

 

The Reality Of Serious Weight Loss, Ctd

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A reader writes:

One aspect of substantial weight loss that hasn’t been brought up in your discussion thread is the effect it has on your sex life. Yes, once the euphoria has worn off, you have to come to terms with the disappointment that your new body is not what you envisioned. But you also have to face the fact that even a modest amount of excess skin may actually make you less physically attractive than before. Those who have not found love or a secure relationship may see weight loss as a key to finding new social and romantic opportunities. This was certainly true for me, but I was shocked to discover that my body after weight loss appeared to be more repulsive to potential lovers than it had been before. I have experienced the look of disappointment and shock on the face of a new lover – even after I had been open and honest about my body. For me, the realization that I may never again be physically intimate and experience the joy of being held, caressed, and loved is actually worse than the health and social problems of obesity.

The above photo from Julia Kozerski is entitled “Lovers Embrace”, from her (NSFW) series Half. Another reader:

It’s been over four years since I started getting my life and weight under control. I joined a support group and the weight just slid off. It’s been three years now since I lost the last of 170 pounds. Those first months in my “new” body were disconcerting.

I carried a photo of the “old” me around to show people I met. I was telling them they weren’t really talking to this normal-looking person, but rather that fat guy. It took a long time for me to shake that habit.

The second thing I remember was a feeling of instant vulnerability. Having been used to being the biggest person in any room, I never felt physically threatened. Ever. Suddenly I was 200 pounds, not 370. A guy I used to outweigh by over a hundred pounds now had be by 40 or 50. What would happen if he turned on me? I’d never feared that in my life.

Hugs are strange too. That bulk I carried around was a great barrier to keep people away. Now they’re RIGHT THERE.

Lastly … intimacy. I’ve been 100 pounds overweight since adolescence. Needless to say, I didn’t get a lot of attention from women. I went my entire thirties without a single sexual partner. Now women check me out regularly. It’s still weird. I wish I could say I’m getting used to it, but I’m not.

Reddit had a great discussion a month or so back on weight loss and the struggle to quiet the inner fat guy/girl. I saw myself in a lot of it. Thanks as always for the discussion.

A New Media Model

The breakthrough in our attempt to go independent this time last year was when we discovered – well, Chas discovered – a small, newish company called Tinypass, that was able to run our meter system and take paid subscriptions from readers. Without any business staff, it was a godsend. Like us, it was a small group of people; and like us, we were refugees from traditional media, trying to start over. Throughout the last ten months or so, we’ve bounced around ideas, brainstormed problems, and shared reflections on this experiment. But we’re not alone, as this short video about the company and what it offers writers, journalists, musicians, artists and bloggers demonstrates (with a small cameo from yours truly):

With your help, and with six weeks to go, we’re now at $807K in our first year revenue, closing in on our goal of $900K. Tinypass made that possible; you made it happen. If you are a regular reader of the Dish, all we ask is that you consider if what we provide each day is worth $1.99 a month or $19.99 a year. If it is, please [tinypass_offer text=”subscribe”]. As you can see, this model is not just about us. It’s about building a future for a whole range of new media on the ashes of the old. [tinypass_offer text=”Help us get there.”] For subscribers who want to support us further, you can purchase a gift subscription for someone who might like the Dish. If you want to revive the future of actual content online – rather than ever-invasive ads and advertorials and traffic gimmicks – this is a place to start. A reader writes:

When you went indie and started your new website, I agreed that the only sustainable way of doing what you had planned was to start charging for the site. Yet, I never subscribed. Until today. Why? Still working on my dissertation with limited financial resources, the yearly fee was holding me back. Or more precisely, the subscription model was holding me back. I don’t like to subscribe. I currently don’t subscribe to any newspapers or magazines, though I have in the past. And it wasn’t the $19.99. That’s a more than reasonable amount. It was something else, too. I often read posts that I didn’t agree with, that held me back from subscribing. Do I really want to pay someone who held some views I was opposed to?howler beagle

What changed? I realized that just as with any newspapers and magazines I buy or bought in the past, I just wouldn’t agree with everything. I love the Economist but I have serious reservations regarding some of their views. Looking at your blog the same way as a magazine, I figured out that I could disagree with some posts, ignore others, and skip over those that didn’t interest me.

So, my reservations are gone. Actually, I feel like I have to subscribe to The Dish because I want to support a journalistic effort that pays its employees fairly. And one that takes care of its interns. Having been an intern myself and never having gotten any pay (whether it was at museums, theaters or interning for a member of the European Parliament), I really appreciate this aspect the most. Your monthly subscription model is also an incentive and allows me to give more, as it’s easier to pay $5 a month than $50 or 60 once a year.

What finally made me commit though was setting up a website for my photography. After having done that, I visited The Dish and discovered that you were also hosted on WordPress. And I could press the follow button. But I could not in good conscience do so while not subscribing. So I subscribed. And then I clicked that “follow” button.

A few more emails of new media pioneering are below. But first a dissent:

Count me as a paid member who will not be renewing his subscription next year. I have enjoyed your blog for a long time, but increasingly it seems you are using your public “voice” to push your agendas.

I enjoy spirited debate as much as the next guy, but that isn’t what we seem to be getting at the Dish anymore. Sure you post a few dissents and opposing opinions, but it occurs to me that those posts are chosen at your discretion. Are you really blogging both sides in your “debates”?

Enough with Pope Francis already! Is legalizing pot really worth the time you give it (medical benefits … please!)? Bush and Cheney are war criminals, always and forever, but Obama is nuanced and not given a fair shake. Sure Obama lied about the details of the ACA, but that is ultimately ok because the good outweighs the bad. Sounds like an excuse for torture as well! And I have yet to hear from one animal scientist or reputable meat industry professional in your crusade agains the meat industry (not concentration camp, torture industry). Your anthropomorphic inclinations are clouding your judgement and your perspective is suspect given the fact that your only dealings with animals seem to be your relationship with a house pet. Yeah Yeah … everyone has a right to their opinion, I know!

I refuse to lend my hard-earned dollars to a site that is pushing agendas. You can dismiss me. You can chastise me. You can call me ignorant. What you can’t do is have my membership or endorsement anymore! Doubt this will make it on your blog.

Another reader points to a new media writer trying to make it with a subscription model as well:

I’ve been an avid reader of your blog for about 4 years now. I first learned of you while I was living in China, and your blog was a great source of American news for me, especially since your blog pretty much flew under the radar of the Great Firewall. When you first started collecting payments for your blog, I wanted to help, but I was unemployed at the time, and I needed to save money. I kept telling myself that when I got my job, I’d sign up. But I got my job back in June, and I kept putting it off. I’d find reasons to do it later whenever I hit my limit. Though reading on my phone and on my PC gave me a little extra breathing room. I don’t know why I kept putting it off, maybe there was some part of me that just didn’t want to pay for web content (I know, it’s selfish).

I don’t know if you’re familiar with Bill Bishop over at sinocism.com, he runs a fantastic China-focused newsletter. It’s mostly a collection of English and Chinese news about the country, but he clearly puts a lot of work into it every day and adds commentary whenever he can. He has been asking for donations and subscriptions for a while, since it takes a significant amount of time every day. He recently made a make-or-break request. He was looking to hit a certain threshold of subscribers so he could justify the time he put into it, but he only made it a little over halfway his goal. So, he announced that at the end of the month he was going to transition from a daily newsletter to a weekly one. Although I like reading his newsletter and will be sad to see it less often, I can understand his reasons.

I wouldn’t like to see your blog go the same route. I feel incredibly guilty for free-riding off your content for so long. So I’ve subscribed finally. Keep up the good work!

Another plug for new media pioneers:

I am a big fan of yours, and as a journalism teacher, I’m also a big fan of your new publication model (and I’m hoping it will work, so I can show my students that they can do this successfully too). I have purchased my own subscription and I’m thinking about buying one for my father-in-law, who is quite conservative but whom I have spirited, if still cordial conversations with.

I am also a fan of a man named Dan Carlin. I’m not sure if you’ve heard of him, but I think you’d find him particularly interesting. Carlin is a podcaster. He’s a former TV reporter who then became a radio host for a few years in the Pacific Northwest, but eventually left that world because, being a staunch independent in what I think is the truest sense of the term, he didn’t quite fit the ideological mold. So he became an early adopter of the podcasting format not long after you hit it as a blogger.

Carlin does two podcasts. His “baby” is “Hardcore History,” where, as a self-professed “fan” of history and not a scholar, he tells stories on historical subjects. These are like extemporaneous audiobooks or long-form essays, and his storytelling is incredibly thorough from a research perspective while also being phenomenally entertaining.

His other podcast is called “Common Sense,” which is a current events podcast where he discusses his point of view on the current political topics of the moment. He reminds me very much of you as an independent thinker who has become disillusioned with the current political state of play in Washington and has ideas on how things can get better.

I’m sure you have more than a few Dishheads in the mix who, like me, are also fans of Dan. I also think it’s worth pointing out the remarkable similarities between your current model and his. As a loyal fan of both you and him, I encourage you to check out a few of his podcasts, which are available for free on iTunes: Common Sense and Hardcore History. (If you’re looking for a good sample of both, I particularly encourage you to listen to “Show 42 – Logical Insanity” from Hardcore History, and “Show 258 – Snow Storm” from Common Sense.) Carlin’s antiquated though reportedly soon-to-be-updated website is here.

I don’t know how ultimately useful you will find this information, but at the very least, I believe there’s a new media kindred spirit-ship to be found between the two of you.

Richard Cohen, In Context

TNC’s take-down deserves a wider audience:

The problem here isn’t that we think Richard Cohen gags at the sight of an interracial couple and their children. The problem is that Richard Cohen thinks being repulsed isn’t actually racist, but “conventional” or “culturally conservative.” Obstructing the right of black humans and white humans to form families is a central feature of American racism. If retching at the thought of that right being exercised isn’t racism, then there is no racism.

Context can not improve this. “Context” is not a safe word that makes all your other horse-shit statements disappear. And horse-shit is the context in which Richard Cohen has, for all these years, wallowed. It is horse-shit to claim that store owners are right to discriminate against black males. It is horse-shit to claim Trayvon Martin was wearing the uniform of criminals. It is horse-shit to subject your young female co-workers to “a hostile work environment.” It is horse-shit to expend precious newsprint lamenting the days when slovenly old dudes had their pick of 20-year-old women. It is horse-shit to defend a rapist on the run because you like The PianistAnd it is horse-shit to praise a column with the kind of factual error that would embarrass a j-school student.

Richard Cohen’s unfortunate career is the proper context to understand his column today and the wide outrage that’s greeted it.

Weigel tackles Cohen’s excuses. My thoughts here. A reader writes:

As the parent of biracial children, I am naturally attuned to the cultural shift regarding interracial couples and biracial children that has occurred in this country.

When my ex-wife and I had children, I perceived that my kids would face situations in both black and white communities where their particular status would cause them grief and I tried to determine when it would be best to address it with them; deciding that it was probably best when something triggered the need.  To my pleasant surprise, my now high-school aged kids have never had an incident of any note as biracial children and no identity problem for themselves, because quite frankly their status isn’t much of a status.  They just don’t stand out very much.  If you go to any suburban or urban grade school or high school today, you will find many kids whose origin you couldn’t identify and if given a list of names, would be unable to match the surnames to the kids.  My kid’s soccer team has an Asian looking kid with a Greek name, a Black looking kid with a Jewish surname a vaguely Latin looking kid with a generic Anglo name and my own Irish surnamed kid who looks vaguely Black or Latin.

Reading Mr. Cohen is like listening to the old relative at Thanksgiving dinner who is so far out of touch with the actual conventional thinking of his own world that rather than be outraged, you blush and then pity the man. His own newspaper reported on this shift a couple of years ago, but who reads papers anymore?

The Necessary Contradictions Of A Conservative

Sorry for missing the Best of the Dish Today deadline last night. I was giving a speech on conservatism at Eastern Michigan University, and the conversation didn’t stop.

I prepped by re-reading parts of my friend Jesse Norman’s terrific book on Edmund Burke: The First Conservative. I was reminded again of NPG 655,Edmund Burke,studio of Sir Joshua Reynoldshow routinely and extravagantly Burke was ridiculed and mocked in his time for his alleged contradictions: supporting the American colonists then unleashing a barrage of brio against the French revolution, a British MP defending the rights of Catholics in Ireland, a patriot obsessed with colonial abuses of power, and an enemy of empire .

He was not a reactionary and yet remained a skeptic of unbridled liberal aspirations to improve society. He was a conservative Whig, and a liberal conservative. It’s that prudential balance – partaking of both traditions in Anglo-American thought and practice, and tacking toward one or to the other depending on the specific circumstances of time, people and place that makes him, in my mind, a conservative.

For a conservative should not be implacably hostile to liberalism (let alone demonize it), but should be alert to its insights, and deeply aware of the need to change laws and government in response to unstoppable change in human society. Equally, a liberal can learn a lot from conservatism’s doubts about utopia, from the conservative concern with history, tradition and the centrality of culture in making human beings, and from conservatism’s love and enjoyment of the world as-it-is, even as it challenges the statesman or woman to nudge it toward the future. The goal should not be some new country or a new world order or even a return to a pristine past that never existed: but to adapt to necessary social and cultural change by trying as hard as one can to make it coherent with what the country has long been; to recognize, as Orwell did, that a country, even if it is to change quite markedly, should always be trying somehow to remain the same.

That is rooted simply in a love of one’s own, in feelings of pride in one’s country or family or tradition. And unlike liberalism, conservatism does not shy from these sub-rational parts of what being human is. They are not to be conquered by sweet reason, because they cannot be. They need to be channeled, not extinguished, guided not fetishized. A conservative will be a patriot, but not a nationalist. He will be proud of his own country but never tempted to argue that it is a model for all humankind, or that it can be exported to distant, different places with vastly different histories.

This means a true conservative – who is, above all, an anti-ideologue – will often be attacked for alleged inconsistency, for changing positions, for promising change but not a radical break with the past, for pursuing two objectives – like liberty and authority, or change and continuity  – that seem to all ideologues as completely contradictory.

But they aren’t. Churchill, in his great essay, “Consistency in Politics” wrote of Burke:

On the one hand [Burke] is revealed as a foremost apostle of Liberty, on the other as the redoubtable champion of Authority. But a charge of political inconsistency applied to this life appears a mean and petty thing.

History easily discerns the reasons and forces which actuated him, and the immense changes in the problems he was facing which evoked from the same profound mind and sincere spirit these entirely contrary manifestations. His soul revolted against tyranny, whether it appeared in the aspect of a domineering Monarch and a corrupt Court and Parliamentary system, or whether, mouthing the watch-words of a non-existent liberty, it towered up against him in the dictation of a brutal mob and wicked sect.

No one can read the Burke of Liberty and the Burke of Authority without feeling that here was the same man pursuing the same ends, seeking the same ideals of society and Government, and defending them from assaults, now from one extreme, now from the other.

And the same, of course, can be said of Churchill, a member at one time of both the Liberal and the Conservative parties in Britain, often misunderstood, even now somewhat disdained in his own country as a necessary blowhard. But a true conservative will defy the label of party and of ideology as well as a foolish consistency, when times shift.

In trying to figure out where American conservatism can now go, reading Jesse’s book, and thinking about Burke, would be a little more productive than constructing new amendments to the Constitution, or figuring out how to repeal the New Deal, or declaring too precipitous a lurch toward non-interventionism. The First Conservative would, I suspect, look at the current Tea Party, for example, with the same baffled disdain that he viewed all reactionary, radical populisms. And he would urge a new moderation and pragmatism in tackling the specific problems of 2013 – not 1980, let alone 1780 – and finding a way to solve them that makes America more like America – because he loves America – and not less.

A Promise The Administration Is Likely To Break

The WaPo reports that Healthcare.gov is unlikely to be ready by the end of this month:

Software problems with the federal online health insurance marketplace, especially in handling high volumes, are proving so stubborn that the system is unlikely to work fully by the end of the month as the White House has promised, according to an official with knowledge of the project.

James Capretta, an Obamacare opponent, argues that the law is in major trouble, even if the administration hits its deadline:

The immediate problem for the administration is that even with a perfectly functional enrollment and data transmission system, it would be challenging to process new insurance enrollments of 4 million or so people in a two week period. Given the track record of healthcare.gov to date, it is highly unlikely that the system will be able to handle that much volume in that short of a time frame.

Moreover, it is also completely unrealistic, not to mention unreasonable, to expect so many Americans to suddenly become comfortable again with healthcare.gov, enter their personal financial information into it, and then select an insurance plan—in just a two-week period. For starters, contrary to the president’s assertions, many of the current enrollees in individual market plans will not be impressed by the premiums, cost-sharing requirements, and provider networks of the exchange plans. If and when the web site becomes more operational, the administration will face another political firestorm from the rate shock that is built into Obamacare’s cost structure.

And yet, the administration would like us to believe that, once the tech wizards work their magic, it will all be smooth sailing. In effect, the Obama administration wants us all to believe that the system is going to be prepared to go from today’s dead stop to 100 miles per hour in a matter of days, with no risk whatsoever of a crash. Who wants to take that bet?

Avik Roy, another Obamacare critic, wants the website shut down until it works properly

Based on what we’ve seen to date from the administration, it appears likely that the website will take four to six months to function properly. The Obama administration should take the advice of the Democratic chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, Max Baucus (D., Mont.) and shut the thing down until they can fix it.

But the administration appears hell-bent on keeping the exchange open, because they want to enroll as many people into Obamacare before the President’s term is up. That way, the law will become harder to repeal, even if Republicans win in 2016.

Reality Check

Obama’s approval rating is dropping:

Obama Approval

And Obama’s advantage on healthcare has disappeared. How Weigel understands Obama’s recent numbers:

The only explanation for any of this? The “if you like your plan, you can keep your plan” controversy, or IYLYPYCKYPgate. (Maybe that acronym won’t take off.) What should worry Democrats (not that they need the help) is that the broken promise actually isn’t affecting a huge proportion of Americans. Maybe 6 percent of them are losing individual plans; 52 percent of them distrust Obama.

Bernstein considers what these numbers mean:

Presidential approval has real effects on midterm elections. Right now, what matters is perceptions among elites, and potential candidates, about those elections. There’s some evidence Dems benefited from the shutdown, with a small wave of successful recruitment. If the conventional wisdom shifts to a sense that Obama (and Democrats) are doomed, it’s unlikely Democrats could build on those successes. We might see some Republican recruiting coups. Separate from that is the direct effect of presidential popularity; the better Obama is doing in November 2014, the better Dems can expect to do.

Will Obamacare Divide The Democrats?

Douthat thinks it’s possible:

To the extent there’s any policy issue with the potential to actually scramble the 2016 primary season for Democrats, it’s probably the one that’s scrambling 2014 for them right now: Obamacare. That’s because if the law still isn’t working out as promised in two years time, and if President Obama ends up locked in some sort of agonized struggle with a Republican Congress over various controversial “fixes,” it isn’t clear exactly what the sweet spot for a Democratic candidate in 2016 will be. In Bill Clinton’s recent comments on how the law should be amended to let more people keep their plans, you can see a hint of one tack that his wife might take — essentially focusing on whatever looks like the least popular aspect of the fully-implemented law and promising to fix that.

But what if there isn’t an obvious, plausible fix for whatever might still be going wrong? And what if a piecemeal critique of the law from candidate Clinton ends up echoing whatever the G.O.P. talking points of 2015 happen to be? Could she then be attacked effectively as a sellout and a compromiser by a left-wing challenger who essentially campaigns against the insurance industry, and promises that the solution to Obamacare’s faults is the single-payer plan of liberal fantasy?

I still think the answer is, “no, probably not.” But if I were tasked with planning an anti-Hillary insurgency right now, I’d be thinking a lot more about how to pitch Medicare For All than about the exact details of my plan to blow up Wall Street.

Chait, on the other hand, argues that Wall Street regulation could be a major factor in the primaries:

It’s odd that a staggeringly lopsided issue has played so little a role in national politics the last five years. The initial 2008 bailout vote took place in emergency conditions, with the cooperation of a Democratic House and a Republican president, and so close to the election that neither party had the chance to tailor its campaign message to take advantage of the public backlash. Republicans subsequently benefited from the backlash against the financial bailout merely by being the opposition party, but they never crafted a serious agenda against Wall Street. President Obama fought for and passed a legislative response, the Dodd-Frank regulations, which placed him in the position of defending the status quo. That, in turn, helped provoke a wild, paranoid backlash on Wall Street, memorably chronicled by Gabriel Sherman, that drove the industry into a full alliance with the GOP. By the 2012 cycle, Wall Street had titled its donations heavily to Republicans, who were pledging to repeal Dodd-Frank while nominating a financier at the top of the ticket.

So what may be the most powerful issue in American politics has lay unused by either party since the crisis. Either party could pick it up. A bill to break up the big banks has the sponsorship of liberal Democrat Sherrod Brown and conservative Republican David Vitter. Warren has a tough regulatory proposal of her own, which has the support of John McCain. A Warren campaign could force Clinton to follow suit, and possibly even pressure the Republican nominee.

Map Of The Day

Twitter users dropping the F-bomb in real time:

Screen Shot 2013-11-12 at 11.46.54 AM

John Metcalfe elaborates:

What ties together a Bostonian upset over being ignored, a woman in Dallas angry about her empty refrigerator, and a resident of Portland, Oregon, who’s still steaming over the wars of George W. Bush? It’s their potty-mouths: Last night, each of these people blasted their Twitter followers with the word “fuck,” or one of its variants like WTF or OMFG. Each of these guys are included in this gloriously profane “FBomb Map,” which displays real-time instances of Twitter cursing as mushroom clouds popping up all over the world.